Many thanks, Gill, very interesting. However, 'hard as a road' never, but never, at the Longchamp course in a million years, but it is almost certain to be 'good' going, which in itself is rare for the course? Thanks again for the info.
Getting carried away with the positives, the quicker the better for the Japanese runner Nice draw too with Westover on the rail who now has to go forward and be the pace.
Very confusing, which I thought was an interesting edge to bet the firm ground runners earlier in the week. Nice the article only came out yesterday, a day after the best prices were taken. One step behind the RP at times . https://www.racingpost.com/news/fes...from-longchamp-this-arc-weekend-aooTT5h8s2tq/
The ATR presenter based in France is saying there is a bit of cut in the ground and is pretty perfect for most.
I don't see how Hukum can finish in front of Westover. Based on today's racing, the Arc will be run in a fast time. Hukum has never won a race within 1 sec of the standard time. Whereas Westover, this year, has had 4 races over 12f and, apart from the KG, the races were all won in a time faster than standard. His win in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (Group 1) being almost 4 secs faster than standard, on good to soft ground. This indicates, to me, that in a fast run 12f Westover will finish in front of Hukum. I would have like to have seen Emily Upjohn have a crack at this, given she beat Westover in one of those races. i suppose one should wonder why Gosdens have sent just Free Wind with Franky riding For similar reasons I think Feed the Flame will reverse placings with Fantastic Moon A line through Equinox puts Through Seven Seas in with an outstanding chance except the race wasn't over 12f and her only attempt at 12f resulted in defeat, by almost 5l Ace Impact's French Derby was seriously impressive, in a time 4.67s faster than standard. Can he sustain that speed for another 330 yards? IF he can, he will win. It's a big IF for me but Timeform are certain he will stay Stoute sends over Bay Bridge instead of Desert Crown - interesting AOB has just the St Leger representing him. I somehow feel he won't won't have the speed over this trip If I stayed up all night I could probably make a case for most of the runners, which is why I have (boringly) mentioned before, I have no financial interest in this one Good luck to anyone having a punt
Good morning, Ron. I’m sorry but I’ve never bought all this raving about “times” in past races. There are just too many imponderable factors. I think today’s race is so difficult to predict since no horse stands out. However, I do think Continuous has a chance, given his improvement. Furthermore I have noticed that nobody seems to fancy the German horse, Fantastic Moon. They feel Feed The Flame needed the race in the Prix Niel. The fact is Fantastic Moon showed real pace and stayed on resolutely , and he has stamina in abundance in his pedigree- through Sea The Stars, Jukebox Jury, and Monsun. I notice his price has tumbled from 16/1 a few days ago, and he is my tentative choice.
It was difficult to figure out how to write an analysis of the Arc without it being as long as the Gettysburg Address, so I opted to start this way: Some of these facts are more commonly known than others: No St Leger winner has ever doubled in the Arc; No six year old has ever won the Arc; Aidan O’Brien is 0 from 30 with three year olds in the Arc; the last horse to win the Arc having never run over twelve furlongs was Saumarez in 1990. It seems easy enough to eliminate some of the contenders. There appears to be little form reason to indicate that 2021 Deutsches Derby winner Sisfahan has much chance of being involved in the finish and it seems his participation is to benefit stablemate My Hollywood, who chased home Fantastic Moon in this year’s Deutsches Derby. Drawn out in 15, Simca Mille won last year’s Prix Niel and the ground not being as slow as last year might give him more chance of being around at the business end of the race. Onesto did little last time to indicate that he is suddenly going to come good in Europe’s showpiece middle distance event, where he flopped last year having beaten Simca Mille in the Grand Prix de Paris and finishing second in the Irish Champion. Haya Zark looks to be an unlikely win prospect having been well beaten in two Group 2 events following a course and distance Group 3 win. Japanese mare Through Seven Seas ran a close second to the best horse in the world (Equinox) last time in one of Japan’s top races; however, that proximity does not reflect the fact that the winner was doing so whilst making the minimum of effort. With a good stall position, Christophe Lemaire’s mount ought to run well although her odds illustrate the general level of her Japanese form. Bay Bridge has put in most of his best career performances over ten furlongs and his presence in the field may be more a reflection of his Derby winning stablemate Desert Crown’s failure to get to post. He proved he will stay by winning the September Stakes last time, a race that Enable took en route to her second Arc. Fantastic Moon was added to the field late but there was no fluke in his victory in the Prix Niel, where he accounted for Feed The Flame, previously winner of the Grand Prix de Paris over the same course and distance; however, Feed The Flame was given too much to do that day and not knocked about when the German horse had gone. Prior to Bastille Day, Pascal Bary’s charge had been well beaten in the Prix Du Jockey Club, won by Ace Impact. Jean-Claude Rouget’s unbeaten three year old has yet to venture beyond ten furlongs but there is good reason to believe that the Arc distance is within his compass from examining his pedigree. The concern with the French three year old is that none of the horses that he has beaten have advertised the form as being strong. The best piece of form on offer comes from the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, where Hukum and Westover fought out the finish. Last year’s Irish Derby winner was only sixth in this in 2022 on very soft ground but started this campaign chasing home Equinox in Dubai, bare form that would suggest he will struggle against the Japanese mare, but from his one draw I expect to see him up near the front end this year whilst the Ascot winner will try to tuck in behind from his wide draw. St Leger winner Continuous has been tried over a variety of trips this year and was well outgunned in the Prix Du Jockey Club before chasing home King Of Steel at Royal Ascot and winning at York and Doncaster. Today he turns out again quite quickly and I expect that Ryan Moore will make plenty of use of him but look to avoid getting lit up by anyone else wanting to set the pace. A few weeks ago most of the discussion was about which of the Gosden’s fillies and mares Frankie would be riding but since only Free Wind has made it to post that discussion is moot; and the problem is that George Strawbridge’s mare hardly has a great chance on the form she has displayed this term, other than her Yorkshire Oaks second, and Dettori’s choice of tactics looks unclear (held up at rear may not work here) and she might perhaps be better on easier ground. I am probably not the only one who might have been expecting PLACE DU CARROUSEL to be running in the Prix de l’Opéra but after her effort in the Prix Foy, Andre Fabre’s mare instead takes her chance in this and her consistent level of form over the last two seasons makes me think that she is worth each way support at 25/1 with bookmakers offering four places in the hope that she can extend her trainer’s record number of winners.
Thank you, Ron, best I've ever done in the Arc. Winner absolute class, but Onesto proved that last year's race was all wrong for him. Damn nearly got second!
