I am not sure that I would agree with the assertion that it is poor quality; perhaps average. Even the Derby looks poor quality many years because that is what the pundits’ state. What happens afterwards is often the indicator. There is no doubt that the time proximity is a factor in why St Leger winners do not do the double but also the type of horse. However, the horses that have attempted it have surely not all lacked pace since they must be three year olds that have run over shorter distances all season. Plenty of long shots have won in Paris so perhaps this is another year...
Historically it is true that few attempted the St Leger – Arc double but training methods have changed dramatically in the last thirty years. Many of the modern day middle distance horses hardly have a race as two year olds. Whilst there is no doubt that the Arc has become more worthwhile and the St Leger is perceived as a stayers’ race, quite a few recent St Leger winners have gone to Longchamps. I would say that it is debatable whether horses have swerved a very good pot on Town Moor to target Paris on the first Sunday in October. I think that a lot of St Leger horses are not perceived as ‘stayers’, which is backed up by those staying in training and contesting the top twelve furlong races for older horses as well as the long distance races.
Interesting one that because, looking at his last 2 races at 12f (both on GF), in a slowly run race (looking purely at overall times) he was btn comfortably by King of Steel (time slow by 5.60s) but against Castleway at York, he went right away inside the final furlong (time fast by 1.65s). Last year he won in France on VSoft over a mile. He seems very versatile and I notice he is entered in the Champion Stakes over 10f. I think I read somewhere that, if he was supplemented, it might be AOB's sole representative. That could be a load of tosh but, if true, would say something
Incidentally the weather here for the next week is basically sunny and getting more sunny towards the end of the week (ie sunny from 7am until 7pm) "The outlook for Longchamp in the week ahead shows the average daytime maximum temperature will be around 26°C, with a high for the week of 29°C expected on the afternoon of Sunday 1st. The average minimum temperature will be 16°C, dipping to its lowest on the morning of Sunday 24th at 14°C. The week will remain predominantly dry. On the whole winds are likely to be moderate." So, unless they decide to water the course, it could come up no softer than good
If you had an ante post bet on the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and it is not on this list and it is not being supplemented then you can burn your ticket: Acceptors at first forfeit stage: Sisfahan (Henk Grewe), Haya Zark (Adrien Fouassier), Onesto (Fabrice Chappet), Simca Mille (Stephane Wattel), Bay Bridge (Sir Michael Stoute), Westover (Ralph Beckett), Hukum (Owen Burrows), Place Du Carrousel (Andre Fabre), Through Seven Seas (Tomohito Ozeki), Emily Dickinson (Aidan O’Brien), Free Wind (John & Thady Gosden), Sprewell (Jessica Harrington), Mr Hollywood (Henk Grewe), Feed The Flame (Pascal Bary), Ace Impact (Jean-Claude Rouget) Just fifteen left with supplementary entries on Wednesday at 11:30 French time.
23 degrees or better from now until the Arc. Wonder what the ground will be; might take my chances that Through Seven Seas 2nd to Equinox wasn't a fluke and will be advantaged by the ground more than most. Doubt 16s will still be there come Sunday.
Still have no idea. Would like to see Ace Impact win well. After Vadeni's fine effort last year the trainer had planned to have another crack this year but unfortunately Vadeni was not able to make it. Would be some compensation if he did it with Ace Impact. Slight concern that he hasn't yet attempted 12f but Cracksman is a fine stamp of a horse. Need to go back some way to find the stamina on the dam side but it does contain Busted, Bustino and Vaguely Noble. Fingers crossed. The ground should be a plus. His form overall isn't too inspiring but he thrashed Big Rock in a very fast time with a good turn of foot in the final furlong. If he can stay the extra 330 yards and can be held up for a late challenge then, if he's within 3l of the leader 2 out, he'll win
Won't be able to get to the race this year as Amanda is in Spain. Can't say I am disappointed as it is so much more enjoyable if one's favourite is in the race and with a chance. The atmosphere is electric. In any case I doubt I will ever enjoy the day as much as I did last year. That was something special. Although it is one of my favourite races, I just can't raise much enthusiasm this time
Agree, Ron, come what may on Sunday, it will definitely be Ace Impact for me. I don't think bog conditions will arise, but one never knows with European weather, especially with all this 'climate change' drama. Will also have just a few shekels on Onesto, who I selected last year. Colt has no recent form to write home about, but one can only hope he can find something similar to the excellent form he showed when winning the Group-1 Grand Prix de Paris in July, 2022. Badly drawn last year in the Arc, but nevertheless it was a disastrous run. I oftened wondered if he was unsuited by the soft going, but I'm not sure about that? Am very hopeful ground will be 'good' in the Arc on Sunday, as I already mentioned above. Now, to wait for the draw! (Weather forecast from BBC for Paris through to Sunday is for 'sunny intervals', and on Sunday itself, 'sunny'. So, that is very promising!)
This year’s Arc field looks like quite an indictment of the Classic generation and French racing specifically. Six French trained horses. Two German trained horses. One Japanese trained horse. When Continuous is added, four Classic winners. No three year old fillies and four colts. Two runners for Frankel, one for Galileo, one for Dubawi. This one is going to need a big performance by someone to make it look above average.
Yep, agreed. It will need Ace Impact to win in a canter in a very fast time. And if that should happen, no need to look any further for next year's winner. But, of course, it won't
Ace Impact is likely to dominate the race. When it's nice out, he must take off from the outside as useal.
Fantastic Moon has been supplemented (as well as Continuous, as expected). Presumably the connections have been assured by France Galop that they will leave the taps turned off until Monday at the earliest before they parted with €120,000 to join the field. The last Prix Niel winner to do the double in the same year was Rail Link in 2006.
Hopefully will be watching on TV. Some good races over the day. Henry Longfellow could establish himself as ante post Derby fav if he wins this well
Here is the Arc field in draw order: Draw – Horse – Trainer – Jockey 1 – Westover – Ralph Beckett – Rob Hornby 2 – Feed The Flame – Pascal Bary – Christophe Soumillon 3 – Free Wind – John & Thady Gosden – Frankie Dettori 4 – Haya Zark – Adrien Fouassier – Gerald Mosse 5 – Through Seven Seas – Tomohito Ozeki – Christophe Lemaire 6 – Bay Bridge – Sir Michael Stoute – Richard Kingscote 7 – Continuous – Aidan O’Brien – Ryan Moore 8 – Ace Impact – Jean-Claude Rouget – Cristian Demuro 9 – Onesto – Fabrice Chappet – Maxime Guyon 10 – Mr Hollywood – Henk Grewe – Bauyrzhan Murzabayev 11 – Place Du Carrousel – Andre Fabre – Mickael Barzalona 12 – Fantastic Moon – Sarah Steinberg – Rene Piechulek 13 – Sisfahan – Henk Grewe – Lukas Delozier 14 – Hukum – Owen Burrows – Jim Crowley 15 – Simca Mille – Stephane Wattel – Alexis Pouchin The only defectors at the final declarations were Emily Dickinson and Sprewell.
I am not a fan of stats. When you look into some of them you can see why the stat holds, but also its irrelevance. The draw is one that wouldn't put me off a horse I thought to be good enough to win. The jockey can overcome a wide draw on the right horse ( eg Golden Horn). Age/Sex wouldn't put me off if the horse is good enough (eg Alpinista first 5yo mare to win). Current year Oaks winners wouldn't put me off (eg Enable). Current year St leger winners wouldn't put me off (if you look at those that did attempt it, it isn't too surprising one has never won the Arc in the same year. Again, if they are good enough they can win All this means to me is that if the horse isn't good enough to win, it probably won't, regardless of stats. And it leaves me no better off in terms of picking the winner. Ryan Moore on Continuous will obviously be trying to find any chink in Ace Impact's stamina and that could play into the hands of Westover. The ground is probably in his favour to reverse placings with Hukum Fascinating but not a betting proposition for me. I will watch with impartial interest
