He got nailed, Ron, by Fantastic Moon, so the Arc is thrown wide-open yet again. Not for the first time in recent years that a horse from Germany, ridden by René Piechulek, and trained there, has really screwed-up the Arc market, and the big race itself too. Congratulations to German trainer Frau S. Steinberg and connections as well!
It is doubtful whether Fantastic Moon will be supplemented for the Arc, due to doubts about the going on Arc day. The German horse can handle up to good-to-soft, but any softer he just does not act. Here's some explanatory blurb courtesy of the Sporting Life website: Moon eclipses Flame Fantastic Moon (11/2) lowered the colours of odds-on favourite Feed The Flame in the Qatar Prix Niel. The occasionally exuberant Feed The Flame, winner of the Grand Prix de Paris, had the benefit of a pacemaker to ensure a strong gallop but the field ignored King Of Records to the extent that he was around 10 lengths clear turning in while Christophe Soumillon had the market leader anchored in last. Soumillon gradually began to pick off his rivals but the more prominently ridden Fantastic Moon was already clear and the German Derby winner kept up to his work to win well. Fantastic Moon, a son of Sea The Moon, had dropped back to 10 furlongs following his Classic success when finishing second to Godolphin's Nations Pride but relished the step back up to a mile and a half. Feed The Flame was pushed out to 14/1 (from 7s) for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe with Fantastic Moon cut to 16/1 from 33s. Fantastic Moon would need to be supplemented for the autumn showpiece and connections are far from certain to stump up the cash with ground conditions deemed key and the Breeders' Cup an alternative. Lars-Wilhelm Baumgarten, manager of the winning owners' syndicate, told Sky Sports Racing: "It's more than fantastic, it's amazing, it's a dream to have such a horse. We won the Derby, we won the Niel, it's amazing. What a year. "We created the syndicate in 2020 with 12 shareholders and now we have 88 and they are all very happy. "We will discuss (plans) in the morning. Soft ground is not good (for him), he makes mistakes on soft ground, he was second to Nations Pride in Munich and soft ground is not perfect for him. "This is the perfect ground (officially good to soft). The Japan Cup, the Breeders' Cup have this ground. We will discuss it and we will see what will happen with the weather forecast in Paris." In short, the colt's participation in this year's Arc is surely very doubtful?
The obvious things that we learned from the Arc Trails were that Feed The Flame is not hugely better than Ace Impact, although one performance in France should not necessarily be taken as form. He may still turn up on October 1st. He is priced at 12/1. Only a couple of bookies are going 20/1 about Germany’s Fantastic Moon and that may be a mistake. I can see the each way thieves moving in. What we can definitely say is that Blue Rose Cen does not stay so she surely will not show up. All credit to the winner but she does not want soft ground so all she did was pick up another Group 1 and eliminate the Pouliches winner from the Arc. The way that the market is moving I can see proven performer Hukum not lasting long at 6/1. Personally, I still see Place Du Carrousel as overpriced at 33/1 if Andre Fabre and the owners let her take her chance...
Yep, the form is all over the place.. That's the second result that hasn't franked the form of Ace Impact. Beginning to think he is only fav now because he hasn't had a chance to fluff his lines. He goes straight to the Arc not having raced beyond 10.5f. Not my idea of a 3/1 shot. Struggling to see any consistent form and starting to lose interest
Still trying to figure it out. For some reason I keep getting drawn to Emily Upjohn, only to be put off again when looking at her form. I think if we regard the Prix Niel as a prep race for Feed the Flame this could be my selection at 12/1. If only Ace Impact didn't have that big ? over the trip At the end of the day the ground will have a big say. Whilst some won't mind too much how it comes up, others could be significantly disadvantaged by extremes. If it's like it was last year there are several we can put a line through Best to wait for the going (and weather) forecast I think. Last year wasn't too difficult; this year it's a nightmare trying to pick one on form
Think I can say with all honesty that this was always my thinking about the Arc, just about every year since the year dot! Ante-post betting on the Arc was always a non-starter for me.
Generally speaking, I couldn't agree more. There have been a few outstanding ante-post bets but they have been few and far between. Enable's first Arc was one for me and I raved about her on here as an outstanding bet at 20/1 after she won the Oaks. Alpinista was another at 16/1 and I was there to witness her historic victory. Other than those I'm struggling. In fact, to be honest, I can't remember looking at the ante-post market before Enable. Golden Horn was an excellent example of leaving it until the day. Hadn't considered him before the day but, in the paddock, he looked outstanding and we backed him and New Bay. We actually went to see Treve make history but she looked terrible in the paddock
Ron, you and Swannie are right. The Arc is a stupid ante-post medium, not just because the bookies are stingy with their odds but also because the three year olds can progress remarkably towards the autumn. Personally, this year’s entrants look very moderate. Also, English bookies no longer give you pari mutuel odds on the day of the race. I got 80/1 on Levmoss on the pari mutuel when he defeated Park Top. I laugh now when I reflect that the bookies laid 8/11 on Park Top and 16/1 on Levmoss, especially since he had beaten her at Newbury earlier that year and won the Ascot Gold Cup as well.
I just couldn’t put a bet on Continuous at the 16/1 offered for the Arc after his St Leger triumph- after railling at ante-post betting on that race. However, I do think he will be supplemented and, in a mediocre field, he must have a great chance. If he does go to post, those stingy bookies will probably drop his odds to 5/1 or 6/1.
Anyone remember that very talented (but naughty) colt Orfevre? Really liked him. The sire of Through Seven Seas is his brother. Seems to be a lot of interest in this one, based on her neck defeat by Equinox. But, like Equinox, has never encountered ground softer than good. Unlike Equinox, all her winning form is at 10f or less. I guess she will need good ground or firmer, and a good draw, to win this
You may be right that they consider supplementing the St Leger winner but I would not touch him ante post. The two statistics that really put me off are probably well known to all readers: No St Leger winner has ever done the double in the same year; and Aidan O’Brien has only had two Arc winners this century – Dylan Thomas (2007) and Found (2016) – from stacks of fancied runners. While Continuous put up a good enough performance on Town Moor to merit inclusion, I would want to see the draw before considering him a betting proposition and he is currently a best priced 9/1 without NRNB.
I remember Orfevre very well, a striking chestnut. He won the Prix Foy by a country mile and there were a lot of Japanese at Longchamp when he lined up for the Arc. He jinked into the running rail inside the last furlong and was caught by the unfancied filly Solemia in the shadow of the post. Even by Longchamp standards it was very soft that day and I do wonder if he just came to the end of his tether but he did have a reputation for misbehaving. Through Seven Seas did run in the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) in 2021 over twelve furlongs but obviously she will be judged on finishing second in the Takarazuka Kinen last time over eleven; however, given that her best performances seem to be on quick turf, I have my doubts about her giving Japan a first win unless she just gets away with it once on soft ground.
Hate to hear that name. My worse loser ever on the flat. Had him at 66/1 and what makes it so bad is I had accepted it winning during the race only for it to be taken back off me.
No, I wouldn’t back him now ante-post but I’m not a great lover of statistics- every one has a ‘first time.’ Continuous has certainly improved markedly and I like his stamina aspect for the Arc- he could go for home early in the race. Yes, a good draw would help but the main question for me is..”Does he have enough pace ?” He certainly didn’t look sluggish in the Leger but the Arc is a different kettle of fish! However, the more I look at the race, the more it looks poor quality. Maybe we’ll have a surprise winner or a long shot.
That's very possible this year, Tam, just a long as I don't tip it! (P.S. No way I could back a St. Leger winner in the Arc, even though, as you say, "there's always a first time". If Nijinsky couldn't do it in 1970, then it is very doubtful if it will ever be done?)
The thing is , Swannie, very few St Leger winners run in the Arc, because of the short time lag between races. Also, a combination of the fact that, compared to the Leger , the Arc hasn’t been going anywhere near as long- and that most top three year olds swerve the Leger in favour of the far more prestigious Arc. Ballymoss did win the two races, of course, but won the Arc as a four year old. People fearing that a stayer (or Leger winner) can’t win the Arc should reflect that two good Ascot Gold Cup winners, Levmoss and Westerner, ran great races in the Arc- the former winning and the latter finishing second behind Hurricane Run.
My post was poorly-worded, Tam. I should, of course, have said "in the same year". Levmoss and Westerner were indeed top-class racehorses.
