Saturday's Meetings Kempton A/W 8 Races 1:35-5:45p.m. Leopardstown Flat 8 Races 1:45-5:40p.m. Haydock Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:15p.m. Ascot Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:30p.m. Thirsk Flat 8 Races 2:05-6:10p.m. Stratford N/H 6 Races 2:30-5:20p.m. Wolverhampton(E) A/W 7 Races 5:25-8:30p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
After the debacle of the four runner Juddmonte International, I was half expecting the Irish Champion Stakes (3:20) to comprise five or six Ballydoyle horses with a couple thrown in by his sons. At the time of writing, the eight set to face the starter only includes three from Ballydoyle. I think most observers will conclude that Point Lonsdale is in as a pacemaker. It is hard to make a case for the other outsider Sprewell, well beaten at Epsom and The Curragh but dropping back to the trip he last won over, who will not get heavy ground today. Last year’s first two re-oppose with the winner Luxembourg now clearly proven to be no wonder horse, having only added the Tattersalls Gold Cup to his CV since. It would seem the runner-up Onesto has been targeted at this with Frankie Dettori booked and only a warm up race in the Prix Jacques le Marois on his 2023 account. Fabrice Chappet’s colt may take his revenge on his 2022 conqueror on better ground but will that be good enough to win? I am surprised that Auguste Rodin has not picked up the Timeform squiggle and I expect the layers will be out to get him on the exchanges as he is no wonder horse. He just caught King Of Steel at Epsom and the Varian colt seems the one that is more likely to benefit from this drop in trip. If the King George form is taken literally, Luxembourg and Auguste Rodin will not be winning today but that looked bad at the time and still does! Alflaila is a colt going the right direction having won at Listed, Group 3 (twice) and Group 2 level on his last four starts so he is worth a go at this level, although the York Stakes was a weak five runner race. So the stand out piece of form in the race belongs to the filly NASHWA, who separated two colts in the Juddmonte that would be favourite if running today, where Frankie made all on the best middle distance colt in training in Europe. The concern would be that she seems best with breaks between races and that was only seventeen days ago. From a betting point of view, sadly much of the rest of the Leopardstown card is dominated by short-priced favourites with Tahiyra expected to win the Matron (2:45) after Diego Velazquez goes for the Champions Juvenile (2:15).
It is hard to summon up much enthusiasm for the Haydock Sprint Cup (3:35) as the only betting angle I can see is the one where Shaquille blows the start in a more catastrophic manner than he normally does and is unable to overcome it. I prefer to just watch and hope that he extends his winning sequence, a proper stable star for a smaller yard. I have Mill Stream in my tracker and he has won twice at Deauville (no notification email for foreign races) but he is not an each way price today. The Old Borough Cup (3:00) does not look as competitive as the numbers would suggest with nearly half the field easily dismissed on recent form. Hence the betting appears to be shaped around just five or six of the runners. Whilst Post Impressionist has been dropped a couple of pounds for his ninth in the Ebor he has not won since last October and Euchen Glen and Caius Chorister were ahead of him on the Knavesmire. Jim Goldie’s ten year old, ridden today by the Paul that has not retired, will run his race again but has not won in two years and his last five wins were all on going featuring the words soft or heavy. David Menuisier’s filly ran up a five timer in 2022, appears to have developed a liking for Epsom and runs off a career high mark. It is always dangerous to overlook a Sir Mark Prescott runner in these big handicaps and the lightly raced Sea King made all at Goodwood last time; however, over this course and distance he threw away a race last September (Post Impressionist behind) by hanging and he is on a career high mark. That leads me to a rematch between Forza Orta and AZTEC EMPIRE, the first two home in a two mile handicap at the Ebor meeting. The Ryan gelding got first run that day and the lightly raced Balding colt failed to catch him. They drop two furlongs in trip today and there is still the obvious risk of traffic trouble for both but James Doyle’s mount is a pound better off for a neck and should turn the tables today. Over at Ascot in the Lavazza Stakes (3:10), the top weighted favourite Victory Dance looks eminently opposable, coming from the out-of-form Appleby yard, running over a new trip with first time blinkers. Charlie Johnston runs three: Benacre trying a new trip with first time cheekpieces, Struth on a 3lb higher mark than when second here on his penultimate start; and the consistent Perfect Play, back to a career high mark after running second at Beverley last Saturday. Bottom weight Dancing In Paris is also consistent but is on a career high mark and was beaten on his one previous attempt at this trip. True Legend is best judged on his Goodwood second (Dancing In Paris third) but he won under today’s jockey when racing up with the pace the time before – a tactic that did not work last time. So what tactics today? Ralph Beckett’s Overactive has won his last two in small fields at Lingfield and Leicester, for which he now has 7lb more to carry. He won with a bit to spare last time so could be up to improving enough here and looks a live prospect. However, my preference is for GALLANT LION, seeking a five timer off a 3lb higher mark than when victorious for Saffie Osborne last time at Windsor. Although the Beckett gelding perhaps has more scope, I like a horse that is running up a sequence – follow them until they lose used to be quite profitable with Charlie’s dad.
Three from Haydock today, all with the extra places... 3:00 - Sea King @ 15/2 4:10 - Tees Spirit @ 12/1 5:15 - Tele Red @ 9/1 All done in an e/w trixie and singles... Good luck to all who are having a play today...<cheers
A couple of interest today, hope both will give a good account' 15:00 Haydock - Forza Orta (Rowan Scott on board for the Kevin Ryan yard. 15:10 Ascot - True Legend (Thore Hammer Hansen rides for the Sir Mark Prescott stable) .................... Win on each and e/w double). .................... Have a good sporting day, folks. It will be impossible to watch everything. So much going on!
Darn it, got everything wrong today, although True Legend did run well at Ascot to get second. That's not good enough though. At least I had Auguste Rodin in Tamerlo's 2023 Flat Race Competition. Then, so did many others! When things are right for AR, he's a damn good racehorse, as he showed today in the Irish Champion Stakes. Terrific ride from Ryan Moore.
The defeat of Shaquille reminds me of Connaught. He wouldn't come out of the stalls properly so he went through a programme of going in the stalls, coming out and running for a furlong before repeating the exercise. On 2000G day he came out of the stalls beautifully but virtually pulled himself up after a furlong. The winner today had an OR rating of 109. A damn good racehorse when compared to others this year but with an OR of just 123 he'd have won very few of the last 50 years of Derbys. The form looks solid as the second is a magnificent specimen of a 121 OR horse!
What an anti-climax of a Saturday... Connections of Shaquille tried to remedy their charge’s perceived problem of being tardy at the start and their race was over not long after halfway. Getting a great break and leading for half a mile clearly is not the tactic for their colt who trailed in stone last. Starting at the back and working his way through runners is the right tactic but hindsight is a wonderful thing. They will presumably give him no assistance next time he runs. I have no idea what James Doyle thought he was doing on Aztec Empire. In a slowly run race it was always going to be a sprint to the line so he really should have committed earlier. As it was he found nothing at the business end of the race and folded tamely while Post Impressionist came from last to first in the sprint. Gallant Lion’s sequence ended at four and Saffie Osborne never looked placed to challenge in a race where there was too much pace at some point as the nine runners finished strung out like the washing. Perhaps Tony Carroll’s charge is now in the grip of the handicapper so not one to be chasing the losses on. Aidan O’Brien sacrificed one of his (allegedly) better older horses, Luxembourg, as a pacemaker for his (alleged) wonder horse Auguste Rodin. Since Nashwa in a close third is a known good quantity, her close proximity tells us all that we need to know about the Ballydoyle duo just ahead of her. No wonder horses present and did Nashwa even run her best race on a quick turnaround? With the Derby winner’s 2023 record now 3-2 we should expect another stinker next time. Auguste Rodin for the Arc anybody?
Great entertainment at Leopardstown! Ryan Moore wins his first three races by either leading or laying up with the pace. After all, the track does suit front running. Then Ryan gets a bad draw in the last and , with less than two furlongs to go, has dropped from 4th last to plum last- seemingly out of it. Somehow, Broadhurst finds a turn of foot that would have embarrassed the Betfred sprinters at Haydock- and flies home at 100 mph! But I ask you, the absolute cheek of Moore…… When interviewed by Fran Berry, he says “ They went too fast so I just laid off them.” I’m sure Ryan wanted to burst out laughing. His face was a peach! He did nothing right in the race except switch the horse to the wide outside to let Broadhurst come home at his own pace. And by God, didn’t he do that !
