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Daily Thread: Friday 18th November

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by TopClass, Nov 17, 2011.

  1. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    So the Haydock and Ascot meetings begin today, at the start of a weekend that has all sorts of possibilities. Kauto Star runs in Saturdays Betfair chase in what may be his final appearance. I hope he (and all of the other horses) gets round safe, regardless of how he performs. Long Run begins answering questions in his quest to become an all-time great, Diamond Harry tries to prove fitness and class on the back of a year long absence since an impressive Hennessey win, whilst potential 'top-table' diners Weird Al and Time For Rupert lock horns again in a rematch of the Charlie Hall.

    That all happens at Haydock, whilst over at Ascot, the other sub-plot to the King George Boxing Day extravaganza begins to take shape. Master Minded has to bounce back from a woeful reappearance and do so in a manner which suggests he can get 3m around a flat Kempton Park, whilst Captain Chris, reigning Arkle champion, looks to right the wrongs of a very unlucky unseating on seasonal reappearance, and also looks to confirm he is heading towards the very top on the way to Kempton. Somersby, the one that has slipped under the radar despite often running really well without winning, adds another twist in what is a three-way thriller that warms up an increasingly cold November and fuels a bit of excitement on the way to Boxing Day...


    As for Friday fancies, here we go:

    1.35 Ascot: SOLIX 6/5 <cracker>

    An interesting recruit to chasing after some smart hurdes form and has the profile to do well in this sphere. 5th in last years Coral Cup won by Carlito Brigante, outpaced before staying on late, he seems to have the stamina, so todays 2m6f race seems the right place to start. Was beaten 11L by Recession Proof over 2m1f.

    Just two runs over hurdles with Nicky Henderson so clearly chasing has been his aim and I am hopeful of a winning chase debut for this one.

    1.55 Haydock: BOLD ADDITION 11/4

    Just a 4 runner affair and I was surprised to see this sort of price available for Paul Nicholls' runner. He ran a really nice race behind what looks a smart prospect in Sizing Symphony, and I remember Paul Nicholls fancied him to run well that day. He was backed into 5/4 joint-favourite, and obviously that was a pipe opener for his chase debut here. Won't lack for fitness.

    2.10 Ascot: HENRI SAN 10/1 e.w

    Not the best flat form of these but solid enough and certainly suggested he possessed some ability. Alan King has done well with these types and I think he can make the frame at a potentially nice price. The yard had a couple of winners yesterday I believe and a similar recruit to this one ran 2nd on debut, called Volcan Surprise. Stamina possibly a concern but he is pitched in against useful types here, and I wonder if that might be a little hint.

    2.30 Haydock: PLENTY POCKET 13/8 (NAP)

    Was actually backed at 7/2 2nd favourite on British debut, but was very disappointing in a race won by Grandouet, who we know is very smart. Clearly he had a lofty reputation, and was much more clued up on reappearance this year, winning on the bridle. A lot more to come, and this price offers a lot more value than even money for Molotof, as in my opinion they are similar prospects.


    BETFAIR LAY KING: 2 selections posted today, both short price favourites and yet another tricky couple of lay bets to try and negotiate as we try to bounce back from our first ever loss!


    http://betfairlayking.weebly.com/index.html
     
    #1
  2. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Looking at a Henderson / Gergahty trebly in the first 3 at Ascot <ok>

    Cois Farraig in the 3.20 Ascot and Pantxoa in the 3.55 (NAP) - Alan King hitting a bit of form

    McCoy should prosper at Haydock, has some cracking rides and could land a 4-timer Nadiya De La Vega / Tornado Bob / Molotof / Eligible
     
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  3. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    No bet day for me tomorrow! Saving my money for the saturday, plus going to a wedding tomorrow and am a usher so will concentrate on that tomorrow!
     
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  4. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Woolcombe- hope the wedding goes well matey! Have a smashing day <ok>

    I've added the link to the two LAY KING selections for the day into the opening post <ok>
     
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  5. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Cheers toppy!<ok>

    will be a good couple of days with that and then ascot the next day!
     
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  6. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    Wooly have a good un

    Our Joe Mac schooling well, maybe needs the run

    Stay Frosty
     
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  7. Grizzly

    Grizzly Active Member

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    Morning all.

    Interesting Topclass selects Henri San - it would be a foolish man to oppose the King/Choc combo at the moment and no doubt they'll have him ready to do himself justice today.
    I am however a foolish man and I'm looking to back Cinders & Ashes each way at around 4/1. Ascot 2.10 This one was well fancied for the Festival bumper and ran with credit to finish 5th, his hurdling debut was due a few weeks back but he was pulled out (I think) because of the quick ground so it's interesting that he's been given his first jumping assignment at Ascot today where rain has been in short supply all year.
    Good ground with no jar and he should be OK - 4/1 I think is a cracking each way price.

    Ascot 3.20 I simply can't oppose King/Choc in this and make Stoneys Treasure a great bet (each way) at around 5/1.
    He finished last term with a couple of facile novice wins including the novice chase on Midlands Grand National day where he ran his rivals into the ground.
    Not entirely sure he's as good on quick ground but similar to the 2.10 if connections are running him I'd imagine the ground is fine.

    Haydock 3.40 Not a great Haydock card for me and I've gone through it to the lucky last before finding something of interest.
    I'm not convinced this is a great race even for 3yo hurdlers, but Diane Sayers has a runner in Detroit River who ran very well at Musselburgh only blowing up in the final half furlong or so when beaten in a bunch finish on her first start, I'm sure connections would have been delighted with the promise she showed that day and at a tissue price of around 25/1 she could be the each way steal in this race.
     
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  8. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Captain Chris out of the Amlin Chase - didn't please Hobbs in his work earlier in the week and likely to go for the Peterborough Chase instead
     
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  9. Dexter

    Dexter Well-Known Member

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    Hello lads.

    Thats bad news Oddy...was really looking forward to that race.

    Some cracking stuff on offer today.I'm off so gonna have a good look at the cards as soon as i finish cooking my Boeuf Bourguignon for tonights supper.What a wonderfully thoughtful and modern husband i am..<laugh>
     
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  10. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Wish I could loaf around all day cooking and watching the racing Dex - sounds like paradise.

    Will you be using real Burgundy in the cooking? My advice is to take a healthy swig for each teaspoon you add to the dish
     
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  11. chesneywold

    chesneywold Member

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    morning folks.

    wish I could get on this at work, annoying.

    gonna have to nip out for early lunch today as fancy this comedy act in the 12.50. they know the time of day these o mearas!
     
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  12. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    The 2.10 at Ascot looks a cracking race and I think the Twister's Double Ross is overpriced at 12/1. The are big players in the race from the flat and bumper spheres but Double Ross has already had hurdling experience, finishing 3rd in a novice hurdle at Carlisle which is working out pretty well. The winner that day was John Ferguson's Cape Dutch (who put in a tremendous effort subsequently when finding only Edgardo Sol too good at Cheltenham last weekend) and second was Weston Lodge (subsequent scorer from Comeragh King at Wetherby last weekend, with the rest beaten miles).

    Whilst Cinders & Ashes, Ted Spread and Broadbackbob may prove to be better horses over time I think Double Ross could put his experience to good use today and is worth an e/w dabble <ok>
     
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  13. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Morning all, hope we are in fine fettle and looking forward to this weekends sport... Seems to me that it may well be a fav's day at Haydock as most of the market leaders look good for most of the races there. So one that i might go with, only a small wager though, is Our Joe Mac, 8/1 e/w in the 2.30...

    As Oddy posted earlier AP has a great chance of hitting the winners enclosure on more than one occasion today, but they are mostly short odds so maybe a couple of doubles will make a better return...

    A few at Ascot - Duke Of Lucca, 13/8, Stoneys Treasure, 11/2 and Decoy at 11/8 would be my picks... Again i may put them in singles n doubles...

    Good luck to all who play today... <ok>

    Dexter - That sounds good, Beef Hotpot - thats what we call it round here, none of that foreign crap as my grandad would say...!!!

    Hope it turns out good... <cheers>
     
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  14. Dexter

    Dexter Well-Known Member

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    Bliss Oddy...!...too early for any sauce unfortunately...You found me out,i'm using a Merlot/Cab Sav Bordeaux.
     
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  15. Dexter

    Dexter Well-Known Member

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    <laugh> Red....<ok>
     
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  16. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Quite right too Dex - Burgundy is far too good for cooking <ok>
     
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  17. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    Just a quick look in and theres Dex Floyding it up, great stuff, i know where im going for lunch
     
    #17
  18. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    As posted on ATR...

    Captain Chris will sidestep the Amlin 1965 Chase at Ascot on Saturday after failing to please trainer Philip Hobbs in his work.

    Last season's Arkle winner looked an unlucky loser when parting company with Richard Johnson at the last in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter and was expected to put it up to Master Minded at Ascot.

    But Hobbs said: "He didn't work great on Tuesday and he won't run at Ascot. I think he needs a bit more time and he'll probably go to the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon instead."

    Dual Champion Chase hero Master Minded now faces five rivals in the Grade Two contest as he bids to bounce back from a disappointing seasonal reappearance in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree.

    Alan King is represented by Haldon Gold Cup winner Medermit, while Ferdy Murphy sends Kalahari King on the journey from North Yorkshire. Somersby steps back up in grade following a routine win at Kempton, with Stagecoach Pearl and The Sawyer completing the line-up.

    Thats a shame. Was looking froward to seeing him run in the Amiln... Nevermind... :(
     
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  19. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Can anyone post up the revised market for the Amlin? No Oddschecker at work for me
     
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  20. Grizzly

    Grizzly Active Member

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    5/4 Master Minded
    9/4 Somersby
    9/2 Medermit
    8/1 Kalahari King

    Copied from Eddie in the Amlon thread.
    Kalahari is suddenly backable....
     
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