So would i we played some decent stuff in the games what is to say they won't handle it. I think the players will be right up for this one.
I think we'll need to keep the ball better than we have been when we commit forward then. They won't miss chances at the same rate most sides will at this level with what they have in terms of quality.
Last season under Rosenior: Lost 3-1 to Norwich and had 21 shots against. Won 2-0 against West Brom at home with 21 shots against. Drew 1-1 with Coventry away with 25 shots against. Drew 4-4 with Sunderland away with 18 shots against. Lost 3-1 to Boro away with 21 shots against. Won 1-0 against Millwall at home with 22 shots against. Against the better teams in the division who we should be competing with in terms of play-off places, we average around 20 shots against. Sometimes our defenders and keeper bail us out with their heroics and we get a win or draw, other times we concede 3 or 4 goals. It’s not sustainable. We had the 4th highest expected goals against last season and currently have the fifth highest this season. It’s not just because of Shota and the bad form in August and September last season. Under Rosenior, we don’t concede that many but we do concede a lot of chances. We’re currently a team that is often under the cosh against top half opponents and don’t control games nor win the midfield battle but have a good shot-stopper in Ingram and rely on last-ditch defending by the likes of Jones, Coyle, Greaves and McLoughlin.
So it's calculated risk then isn't it - that your average championship strikers miss a lot more than they put away. And at least 1 of those half dozen games from 28 that you selected we absolutely matched on clear cut chances. We also didn't win games we dominated and deserved to win as will inevitably be the case for all clubs over a season, so it works both ways in football and usually evens out over a season. The crux of your argument seems to be that we've been getting away with it for 32 games now. That's just not plausible. 2 or 3 maybe your luck holds but not over 32 games.
More of a case that we’re constantly under the cosh against top half opposition because we have a weak midfield out of possession but a pretty good defence and keeper.
I mean you are cherry picking some games here. Over Rosenior's tenure last year we had an xG against of 33.3 which was good for 16th but you look at the majority of the table and there's nothing in it. Not to mention you're looking at total shots rather than high quality chances. Remember those Millwall and WBA wins and most of the shots were hopeful efforts
That second column doesn't show our form position in those 28 games as 10th does it ? Think I was ridiculed for suggesting similar.
In his book "Facts from Figures", first published in 1951, M.J. Moroney, statistician, wrote: "We suffer from delusions of accuracy. Once an enthusiast gets this disease, he and all who depend on his conclusions for their welfare are damned. For the most part, statistics is a method of investigation that is used when other methods are of no avail: it is often a last resort and a forlorn hope. A statistical analysis, properly conducted, is a delicate dissection of uncertainties, a surgery of suppositions. The surgeon must guard carefully against false incisions with his scalpel. Very often he has to sew up the patient as inoperable... we shall try to see the scientist with no axe to grind other than the axe of truth and no product to adverise save the product of honest and careful enquiry". As you suggest DBT - caveat emptor.
Hull City are facing big decisions surrounding the futures of striker Oscar Estupinan and winger Allahyar Sayyadmanesh before the transfer window closes on Friday evening. Estupinan has been the subject of firm bids both for a permanent and temporary exit ahead of the 11pm deadline but nothing has yet matched the club's valuation. City are loathed to lose the striker who scored 13 goals in his inaugural campaign in English football last term, however are willing to sanction his exit if a deal to suit both parties can be agreed upon. So far this term, the popular Colombian has one goal to his name with that coming in the Carabao Cup defeat to Doncaster Rovers earlier this month, but he is yet to start a Championship game. A host of Spanish clubs are keen on signing the 26-year-old and City, it's understood, will continue to weigh up their options throughout the week. First-team starts are likely to be few and far between for Estupinan under Liam Rosenior, with the City boss preferring Liam Delap and Aaron Connolly as his two leading strikers while the club remains in the hunt to sign Keinan Davis from Aston Villa. Davis has no shortage of interest from both England and Europe, but it's understood has not yet made a firm decision about where his future lies beyond Friday. Another player attracting interest from Europe is Allahyar Sayydmanesh, and in a similar situation to Oscar, the club are reluctant to allow a hugely popular figure to leave the club this week without their value being met and cover being sought.
I only ask because over a 28 game sample I don't see how one could plausibly argue that the actual GA isn't more statistically significant than xGA in a real world as opposed to theoretical scenario.
Anyway, I was listening to 5 live yesterday and they had Steve Bruce and Aaron Lennon as guests. Lennon said Steve had persuaded him to sign for us and his bags were packed all ready to go then at the last minute Everton called. I don't recall that but my memory could be letting me down.
Davis has gone from a medical and signing on the dotted line for Swansea to there now being a “ hitch.” Something to do with Villa wanting a “ ridiculous” sell on fee. Quotes from the Swansea forum.
