Having consulted the trends there is one stand out selection for this tricky handicap: PATEESE has the makings of an extremely easy winner, get on at 6s before it all disappears my friends
Can't fault your loyalty RV One who won't be winning is Nearby As I have discarded Kumbeshwar from my 10 to follow list he will no doubt bolt up
Odddy I never followed A Media Luz really that was Franklino I have backed her a few times but been against her few times also. Get a replay of her comeback run only winner 2 out. Just didn't go on after that. Settled a lot better that day and if she just needed the run I can see her running a massive race on Sunday
I think so Odddy I love him. Won a couple on the flat in France, bought him early from the same trainer as Mille Chief and Walkon. Every bit of work he’s getting better, improving all the time and jumps very well. Very likeable, great attitude and handles soft ground. Will be out pretty early in the season.” Alan King went down in my estimations after that
I don't think A Media Luz really stays 2m so would be against her round Cheltenham. I think she will be seen to best effect round a nice sharp flat track where speed, not stamina, it at a premium. I am sure she has a big handicap in her of her current mark though, especially if she learns to settle.
Taken a chance on Olofi at 25s... now a certain runner but v well handicapped and trainer in good form... not a great renewal so may not be that hard to win...
Fancy Moon Dice in this a lot and I was lucky enough to get on at fancier prices than the 8/1 available at present. Put him up for the Galway Hurdle and he duly obliged and the 14lb extra he'll have to carry here isn't excessive. The form of that race has been boosted in a big way with The Real Article winning all 3 starts subsequently, including off a 20lb higher mark in a Grade 2. Trainer Paul Flynn is a shrewd man and has a very impressive 26% strike rate when sending his horses across the Irish Sea, further improving to 10 out of his 19 in this discipline finishing in the first 3. It will be the trainer and horses first rides at the track which is an obvious negative but I think Moon Dice is primed to run an absolutely massive race
Ultimate looks very well handicapped to me, ran well when 5th in the Imperial Cup off a pound lower mark at the back end of last season, and he showed that his ability may have improved considerably over the summer when bolting up in a flat race at Catterick, by 7 lenghs in september, a race he wasn't expected to win, and was obviously just intended to get him match fit again for the NH season.* They did run him in a chase last time which he won, beating Australia Day by 13 lenghs, fair enough Australia Day had excuses, but he could only beat what was there. I just feel Ultimate's ability has improved over the summer, no one expected him to win so comprehensively on the flat, and he did, which obviously hasn't affected his hurdles ratings. If he has improved as much as that flat form suggests, then he should bolt up off a mark of 128, and a weight of only 10'4.* So at 20/1 Ultimate is my selection *
Not sure about these 'trend' horses, I prefer to look at form myself. Moon Dice looks to have very strong prospects based on that and is a reasonable price to do so. May be worth a small dabble in what looks a 'lotteryesque' race
Most people will fancy the two likely favourites- Pateese and Moon Dice. However, though Pateese won very easily, he only won a moderate Class 3 contest. Moon Dice won the Galway Hurdle, but the handicapper hasn't been too kind to him. For value, I prefer to look elsewhere.From the older horses, I think Olofi will run well. There are only six four year olds in the race, and A Media Luz, Kumbeshwar, and Brampour will all have their followers. Nonetheless, the race's highest rated four year old from last season is Colin Tizzard's Third Intention. Though the Triumph Hurdle has dubious value in highlighting Champion Hurdle prospects, last year's form is looking rock solid.....Third Intention finished a good seventh behind the winner, Zarkandar- with Grandouet, Unaccompanied, and Sailor's Warning not far in front of him. Local Hero, Brampour, Molotof, and A Media Luz were all behind him. He then returned to Cheltenham and was an easy winner of a Class 2 race. On his reappearance this season, he ran well until running out of steam approaching two out, and has obviously been earmarked for this big prize. He now meets Brampour on 18lbs better terms (less 7lbs claimed), and runs off a mark of 142 - a pound less than Cheltenham. I expect A Media Luz to run a good race- now that she is settling better- but she has all on to cope with the stiff uphill finish. I think Third Intention will run a massive race and the 20/1(guaranteed price) offered by Wlliam Hill should be taken.
The Timeform view Timeform's View Timeform Daily: Greatwood Handicap Hurdle, Cheltenham 14:20 The Greatwood Handicap Hurdle always proves an informative race and Philip Hobbs, who has saddled Rooster Booster, Detroit City and Menorah to win the race since 2000, has a team of three headed by recent Sandown winner Pateese... Sanctuaire was the easy winner of the 2010 Fred Winter, and back to best after breathing operation when winning Scottish Champion Hurdle. Race possibly came to soon next time but comes with risks attached. Topolski was a useful stayer on Flat and made a seamless transition to hurdling earlier this year, completing hat-trick in Grade 2 at Aintree. Fit from Flat when well held off this mark at Ascot, however. Brampour was a useful Flat performer who showed big improvement when making winning handicap debut at Ascot on recent return under same rider. 10 lb rise makes life tougher but not yet exposed. Nearby progressed into a smart handicap hurdler last season. Failed to come up to expectations over fences though, and below best back over smaller obstacles last 2 starts. Jack Cool has been much improved since moving to current yard and fitted with cheekpieces. Ended 2010/11 in cracking form, scoring twice in April. Excuses on return from short break last month and McCoy now up. Moon Dice Taken off since being switched to handicaps, winning the ultra-competitive Galway Hurdle in July. Kept fresh for this, and very hard to knock his claims given progressive profile. Son of Flicka is a tough sort who doesn't get much respite from the handicapper due to his consistency. Reportedly came back injured when last seen in May, though others simply look better treated. Third Intention took well to hurdles last season and shaped with encouragement when sixth to Brampour at Ascot on return, travelling well until leaving impression run was needed. Still has a bit to find, though. Kumbeshwar was a 'nearly' horse as a juvenile in 2010/11, second in Fred Winter and Grade 1s at both Aintree and Punchestown. Possibly did too much too soon at Ascot and no surprise to see him bounce back. Via Galilei has done really well since being switched to handicaps, finishing second in Imperial Cup at Sandown and improving a bit further to run Brampour close at Ascot last time. Back up in weights now, though. The Betchworth Kid was not at his best on Flat this year and hurdling profile doesn't inspire greatest confidence, but he surely remains capable of popping up in one of these races some day, albeit perhaps over further. Inspector Clouseau is a consistent and versatile hurdler, but there's nothing to suggest he's particularly well treated on British debut despite representing an excellent stable. Usually held up. Viva Colonia is a strong-travelling type best off in well-run races as when winning at Market Rasen and Cartmel over summer. Below form last time, however, and doubt as to whether this stiff track will suit. Palawi is an uncomplicated, enthusiastic sort who won three as a juvenile last season. Below form in minor event at this track last time, and even if run was needed, he'll surely be better at an easier track. Oldrik is a smooth-travelling hold-up performer who ran best race when second in Imperial Cup from 5 lb lower in 2009/11. Off 11 months prior to an encouraging return on Flat but course form isn't great. A Media Luz is a free-going sort but still managed to reach useful level as a juvenile. Travelled powerfully for long way when third to Brampour at Ascot on return, but strength in finish will be tested to the limit. Pateese put up some good handicap form as a novice in 2010/11, and stepped up to make short work of 11 rivals at Sandown last week. Obvious claims under a penalty. Abergavenny was three from three in novices very early in the season and has since been running respectably enough on the Flat. Allotted mark of 130 for handicap debut, and this plainly demands a whole lot more. Olofi produced useful form in handicaps last season (fifth from 2 lb higher in this race). Fit from a recent spin in a minor event in France, and interesting at a price with his stable among the winners. Andhaar won twice as a novice last season, but appears to need some leniency from the handicapper as things stand and is likely to find this all too much. Eightybarackstreet developed into a fairly useful performer during summer, but failed to convince with attitude in first-time blinkers at Cork last month and expected to struggle in this much more demanding race. Ultimate hasn't won over hurdles since making successful start as a juvenile in 2009/10, but took well to fences when winning novice at Huntingdon on chasing debut last month. This test plenty stiff enough. Harry Tricker was second to Khyber Kim from 1 lb higher in this race 2 seasons ago, but things not gone to plan since for all 2 wins over fences last autumn, and he put up a very laboured display at Ascot on return. Alazan was successful twice in 17f handicaps at Bangor last year. Ran well when third here on return but has a good record fresh anyway, and also had the run of things. Others make more appeal. Timeform 1-2-3: 1. Olofi 2. Pateese 3. Moon Dice Timeform View: The latest renewal of what is typically a highly-competitive handicap perhaps lacks some of the star quality of recent seasons, but progressive sorts still abound, with Pateese and Moon Dice in particular sure to be very popular. At the likely prices, however, Olofi makes a bit more appeal. Interesting that Pateese is a Horse in Focus and clear top rated.
