NP - 3rd Year Thinking.

Bristol City approaching year three of the Nigel Pearson project with summer transfers in mind
This forthcoming transfer window could bring Nigel Pearson with a freedom and flexibility he's never experienced at Bristol City since taking over in February 2021

He’ll hate the headline, and especially the word “project”, but there’s no getting away from the fact that after two seasons of slow but incremental progress, the third campaign under Nigel Pearson is when Bristol City need to make a definitive jump up the Championship.
It’s the reason the manager was given that length of contract in the first place, with the knowledge the first two seasons would be complicated in terms of economic management, which is why former Richard Gould looked to this summer as being the benchmark for when the Robins financial reset would be all-but complete.

As the January transfer displayed, albeit right at the end, City were able to exercise a certain sense of control over proceedings after selling Antoine Semenyo - when they had to - and then bringing in the sort of players who weren’t just stop-gap signings or long-term prospects but, in truth, a bit of both who could impact the team now and then further improve.

That approach is likely to be the case again this summer - Pearson’s fifth transfer window since taking over in February 2021 - and with this international break a time for the manager and technical director Brian Tinnion to further hone their plans, we’ve taken a look at the current squad: who’s likely to be here for next season, who isn’t and the areas of need based on those eventualities, and what’s transpired over the 2022/23 campaign.

Goalkeeper
Under contract for 2023/24: Max O’Leary, Stefan Bajic

Out of contract: Harvey Wiles-Richards

Under-21 cover: Mac Boyd, Will Buse, Joe Duncan, Josey Casa-Grande

There is fresh focus on the goalkeeper department following the departure of Nikita Haikin this week and Max O’Leary now looks a little lonely out there, in terms of being a senior member of this particular department.

He will have Harvey Wiles-Richards for company over these last eight games of the season giving the 20-year-old plenty of opportunity to earn a contract extension, plus there’s a chance for one of the next generation to spend time as No3, while Will Buse completes his loan spell at Yeovil.

Moving forward, if all goes according to plan Stefan Bajic, who is playing regularly for Valenciennes and well enough to keep his place in the France Under-21 set-up, will return for pre-season and battle O’Leary for the No1 jersey.

The City academy product signed a three-year contract last month which secures his future, having come very close to leaving the club on loan last summer which could have spelt the end. As to what happens next, the ball is in Bajic’s court to a degree and depends on his desire to compete for the shirt or if his English experiment needs to be terminated ahead of schedule.

Given he turned down French clubs to move to City last summer, it seems unlikely that 4-5 frustrating months would cause him to want a move away from the Robins but it also can’t be ruled out.

That decision could then determine how Pearson and Tinnion act over the summer and whether there’s a belief that the club need another experienced stopper in the squad, or if O’Leary now constitutes that senior presence.

Wiles-Richards’ conduct over the next two months can also help show to the coaching staff how ready he is to step into action, if required. As said, there is a situation where there’s probably little work done in this area of the field - O’Leary finishes the season strongly, Wiles-Richards impresses and earns a new deal and Bajic returns refreshed and in form - but there’s also likely to be a Plan B and C up on the wall at the High Performance Centre

Defence
Under contract for 2023/24: George Tanner, Kane Wilson, Rob Atkinson, Kal Naismith, Cam Pring

Out of contract: Tomas Kalas, Zak Vyner, Jay Dasilva, Taylor Moore

Under-21 cover: Duncan Idehen, Joe Low, Callum Wood, Jamie Knight-Lebel, Harry Leeson

If we tackle the contract question first: Vyner deserves a new deal and should be extended as soon as possible to avoid it dragging into the summer where he may even start to garner some interest elsewhere in the Championship, particularly among the promoted clubs.

He appears the favourite to win the club’s Player of the Year award and it would be a touch embarrassing if that was to be claimed with his future beyond the next couple of months so uncertain.

City hold an option on Taylor Moore’s contract but it’s almost certain he’ll be permitted to leave and will have suitors in League One. The Robins could seek to activate it under the assumption that a team may pay a small transfer fee, and there’s an argument for that but, at the same time, given how precious money is in that division, it may just be straightforward for all parties concerned that he’s allowed to leave on a free.

Kalas and Dasilva’s situation will run until the summer. The former needs to get fit, play the majority of the games when he does and then take a sizeable pay cut if City want him to stay, and he himself wishes to; Dasilva is in a similar-ish boat but looks a little closer to the exit door as the Robins may feel they can get better value out there for a second-choice left-back.

Should Vyner (which seems unlikely, even though he’s yet to agree a new contract as City hold a one-year option they'll surely trigger as a failsafe) and Kalas leave, with the need for at least one centre-back, possibly two, the Robins could then enter the summer needing four, which is probably too many.

Even three is a little ambitious so should Vyner and Kalas stay (and one is more likely than the other at this stage), along with Rob Atkinson and the versatility of Kal Naismith, Cam Pring and, to a lesser extent, George Tanner, two more central defenders would be a far more sensible target to achieve for the recruitment team, with the additional chance of Low, Idehen or Knight-Lebel being a fifth/sixth option.

Dasilva’s departure would also likely lead to the signing of another left-back, with Wood probably requiring a loan and Leeson more comfortable on the right.


Midfield
Under contract for 2023/24: Alex Scott, Matty James, Joe Williams, Ayman Benarous, Mark Sykes, Omar Taylor-Clarke

Out of contract: Andy King, Han-Noah Massengo

Under-21 cover: Josh Owers (out of contract), Elijah Morrison, Dylan Kadji, Ben Acey, Joe Porton

The first name on this list pretty much determines everything that will happen in this area of the field, and potentially the squad as a whole. Should City sell Alex Scott for a significant (and we’re now talking £25m+) fee then a) that gives Pearson significant capital to reinforce the squad how he sees fit, and also perhaps enters the equation when you consider contracts for Kalas and Dasilva - why pay them when you have money to go and buy a defender for potentially lesser wages? But also b) then requires the Robins to find a replacement.

That could well have been Ayman Benarous if his rotten luck with ACLs hadn't held his development back and we hope to see the wonderfully gifted midfielder in action in 2023/24. Omar Taylor-Clarke is one to get excited about but it’s a leap to suggest he can fill a Scott-sized hole in the team, at this stage anyway.

We also haven’t mentioned the best-case scenario of City being able to sell Scott and then loan him back. Which sounds delightful and solves so many problems but we have to treat on the more unlikely end of the scale for now given that he wants to move to a top-flight club where he’ll play regularly, and the fact Premier League sides tend to defer to their own loan departments with their own ideas on where they want players to go on a temporary basis.

Moving away from the hypothetical, though, the chances are that City will be looking for a box-to-box attack-minded central midfielder who can play 40+ games in a season. Easy peasy.

We all know Massengo has all but gone and although the Frenchman hasn’t been in the first-team picture since October, another body has very evidently been needed in central midfield over the last few weeks following the injuries to Naismith, Matty James and Joe Williams.

The latter’s 20 starts, plus 10 appearances off the bench, have been a huge step-up in output for the Scouser and could well be his ceiling, which is perfectly fine, but as James further advances in years and with King likely to take on more of a coaching role (should he stay) then at least one central midfielder, possibly two will be required, outside of what transpires with Scott.

Dylan Kadji’s loan at Swindon Town hasn’t quite gone according to plan, and he was back playing for the Under-21s this week, so that may rule him out of a first-team place for now but, then again, all experiences are good experiences and he may naturally progress over pre-season to show Pearson he can come into consideration.

Attack
Under contract for 2023/24: Nahki Wells, Sam Bell, Anis Mehmeti, Harry Cornick, Andi Weimann, Tommy Conway

Out of contract: Owura Edwards

Under-21 cover: Marlee Francois, Seb Palmer-Houlden, Sam Pearson, Olly Thomas

Numbers-wise, and when you also bring Mark Sykes into the equation (which we probably should have done), City are absolutely fine in terms of options plus the returning Tommy Conway gives them another central goalscorer.

Paradoxically, however, since boosting his forward options in January with the additions of Harry Cornick and Anis Mehmeti in the wake of Antoine Semenyo’s sale, the Robins haven’t been as consistent an attacking side.

Pearson’s system seems to have issue in that it doesn’t get the best out of the individual - Wells, Cornick or Bell - in the No9 role, and the manager has now shown a desire to switch to a diamond to ensure he has two defined central strikers.

Bell should take further strides forward and hopefully Conway, who’s been permitted to take significant time with his recovery due to the options available in his position, will return as normal and continue his progression from the first half of the season.

If that comes to pass, with senior figures Wells and Weimann, plus Cornick, there is no reason to suggest that any major moves are required in the final third. Also, in terms of squad harmony, it’s hard to see how they can be. Of the six mentioned, all are under contracts beyond next summer other than Weimann, so if Pearson was to sign another forward, it creates an even bigger logjam and likely leads to an unhappy group of players.

There is an argument that says he could do with a more physically-imposing figure in the middle, a sort of more mobile Chris Martin, but the manager likes the idea of a counter-attacking side who play on the front foot. Plus, unless there are sales in this area - and, as it stands, you could perhaps make a case for Conway (although his injury tempers that) and maybe Weimann, it’s hard to see how the makeup of the squad would allow it.

Edwards has spent the season on loan at Ross County and shown some signs of development plus maybe Sykes-aside is a pure winger, something this squad lacks. With an option on his deal, it seems prudent to trigger it and give the 21-year-old chance to show his talent over pre-season.

Should that come to pass, and even if it doesn't, really, Marlee Francois looks primed for a season-long loan somewhere in preparation for the 2024/25 campaign.
https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/bristol-city-approaching-year-three-8281567