Saturday's Meetings Newton Abbot N/H 8 Races 1:10-5:10p.m. Market Rasen N/H 7 Races 1:17-4:45p.m. Ascot Flat 6 Races 1:25-4:40p.m. Leopardstown Flat 8 Races 1:30-5:30p.m. Catterick Flat 7 Races 1:35-5:00p.m. Stratford N/H 6 Races 1:40-4:29p.m. Wolverhampton(E) A/W 8 Races 4:50-8:30p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Ascot 16,40 Magical Morning 25/1 e/w bet365 six places, others 20/1 (took 33/1 e/w a few days ago) Third in this race last year (106, now 105). Second run after break. Form first run after break:1800. Form second run after break:111
2.05 Leopardstown-Bertinelli Each Way @ 15-2 [Bet 365] Debut run but a colt to keep on the right side of going forward
Looking at the Long Distance Cup, I can't help thinking Trueshan is an uneasy fav, despite the going being in his favour. After his Herculean effort in the Northumberland Plate and a fine 3rd at Goodwood on totally unsuitable ground, he put in what was, on paper at least, a rather laboured effort at Doncaster behind Coltrane and I can't help thinking things haven't quite gone to plan this term - probably due to the weather. The two unexposed 3YO horses in the field are likely to come to the fore and, like many, I was gobsmacked by Waterville's win in the Irish Cesarewitch. He could well be the next staying superstar off the Ballydoyle production line. In the sprint we have the usual suspects but my 2 against the field are both stepping down in trip - Kinross and Tenebrism. Of the rest, the Inspiral - Baaeed double ought to reward fav backers but My Prospero in the Champion Stakes can outrun his odds and reward e/w punters.
Well remembered. I have had a lot of time for these connections over the years but the operation doesnt seem to be what it used to be. Very long time since they have produced a winner. This one is out of a very nice Maktoum mare who has produced a couple of winners but the bumper winner in the line was at the third time of asking and only after wind surgery. Hard for me to look past the Dalgleish horse. They have an excellent record in junior bumpers and this one has the right pedigree to match.
Fake bumper alert!! Dalgleish is 6 from 22 in bumpers with 3 year olds. Brian Ellison is the only other one in the race with a win with a 3 year old bumper horse, and he is 3 from 15. Sires - Ifraaj, Black Sam Bellamy & Gregorian only sires to have a 3 year old bumper winner. Amazingly BSB only had 1 winner from 14 runners. Ifraaj is 1 from 5 but has had 3 placed. Gregorian is 1 from 2. Not a race for me to bet in, but I would be following the market to see if Ellisons horse shortens.
I expect Baaeed to go out unbeaten in the Champion Stakes and, unless she fluffs her lines like she did in the Falmouth, Inspiral will win the Queen Elizabeth II. I like Modern Games but I think he may be more of a Breeders’ Cup Mile horse after winning the Woodbine Mile last time. The only Tracker horse that I have running is the grey Tyrrhenian Sea in the last but he was below form on soft ground last time so I will give him a miss on similar ground today. The eight facing the starter in the Long Distance Cup can mostly be given some sort of chance. After a blip in form, Trawlerman has won his last two, making all in the Ebor when last seen in August but he will need to improve quite a lot to feature in the shakeup here. At the Ebor meeting, Quickthorn won the Lonsdale to complete a hat-trick (beating Coltrane) but he ran like a drain in the Prix Du Cadran when last seen and would have competition for the lead today. Waterville takes a big step up in class after winning the Irish Cesarewitch last time (stablemate Wordsworth well behind) and could be another staying prospect from Ballydoyle in receipt of 9lb from the older horses. Coltrane won the Doncaster Cup following on from his second in the Lonsdale, where Trueshan just snatched second and Stratum was tailed off (now fitted with blinkers and a tongue-tie). Trueshan comes here looking to win this for the third year and clearly did not put in his true showing on Town Moor; however, I think that he is susceptible to the improving three year olds here and my preference is for the impeccably bred St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov, having only his fifth start on Town Moor and a previous course winner in the Queen’s Vase. The odds are short enough so I will just be watching. In the absence of any stand-out sprinter, the British Champions Sprint looks like a bit of a lottery. Whose turn is it to win this year? Art Power has been fourth in the last two renewals so why should he suddenly come good today? Creative Force won this last year but has not been seen since fourth in the July Cup, where stablemate Naval Crown was second, Double Or Bubble fifth and Perfect Power a disappointing seventh as favourite. Rohaan warmed up for this with a course and distance win in the Bengough Stakes (Run To Freedom, Ventura Diamond and Vadream behind) but was out with the washing in this last term. The favourite Kinross has never won at this trip, was only ninth last year and was well beaten in the Platinum Jubilee, so although he has improved a few pounds this term I do not see him completing his four timer. Garrus would be an interesting one having not run since his third in the Prix Maurice de Gheest but he was fourth last in the Platinum Jubilee and has never won when the word soft has appeared in the going. Tenebrism won the Prix Jean Prat but that is her only success this term; however, she did win the Cheveley Park as a juvenile on only her second start. My advice: sharpen your pin, stick it in the card. In the British Champions Fillies And Mares, I have already imparted the tip that I had received for last year’s winner Eshaada (odds have drifted markedly) but it is hard to fancy her on form given that she was beaten by three year old Mimikyu in the Park Hill, albeit over further. There are a few outsiders that it is difficult to make a case for, including Albaflora, Thunder Kiss, the now French trained Verry Elleegant and Emily Dickinson. Francis-Henri Graffard’s Sweet Lady won the Prix Vermeille last time, just pipping Lilac Road in what were career best performances by both and they should be able to contend here. Three year olds have a good record in this but I think that Stay Alert is probably a few pounds short of the required level based on her Newbury win a month ago when comparing it to the form of the other members of the Classic generation. Emily Upjohn ran abysmally last time in the King George having just been denied in The Oaks; however, she has not been seen since and has now been fitted with a hood. She could well return to form and has a live chance on her classic form but if I were going for a three year old it would be Eternal Pearl, winner of her fourth consecutive race from seven career starts at HQ three weeks ago. This is her trip but she has been beaten twice in races where soft featured in the going. So I am going to side with the William Haggas four year old SEA LA ROSA, who won the Prix de Royallieu over further last time after winning the Prix de Pomone over this trip and may be able to eke out the few pounds of improvement needed today.
For me, Ascot is an absolute minefield today, so I'll just watch and enjoy. Am quite taken with Bustino's e/w selection in the main feature, My Prospero. Certainly has a sporting chance of a podium finish. Who knows how much this colt has improved since his last run? Good luck with this one! Being a 'plodder' myself nowadays, I'll stick with a couple at Stratford NH. Not very inspiring selections, but both choices have capable jockeys on board, and are trained by small but equally-capable yards: Stratford: 15:24 Theatre Man 15:54 Lady Jane P Win on each and e/w double Best of luck today folks, and enjoy this afternoon's racing fare!
QM, you’ve only analysed or rated 12 of the 13 runners. Maybe you’ve missed the winner, Rosscarbery, who has good form and whom Billy Lee comes over specially to ride.
Surprisingly, I do fancy one in the finalè at Ascot (16:40), and that is Sweet Believer. Back in a Handicap, certainly has a squeak in this event. Good apprentice, Adam Farragher (5), on board for the William Haggas yard. Best price around 9/1 at time of writing. E/W probably best option at these odds.
Baeed beaten, which surprised me. He didn't seem to like the ground but if he's the class horse everyone says he is then he should be able to run on soft. Kingscote and Buick rode good races, and Adayer just wasn't battle hardened. Strange run from my EW choice My Prospero: travelled smoothly into contention 2f+ out but was then swallowed up almost immediately. He then ran on strongest of the lot and in another stride he'd have been 2nd. Not sure Cowley covered himself in glory. Well done to Stoute and Kingscote.
Damn it, beaten by a flipping 80/1 shot! . Never mind, horseracing is a right old sod sometimes. The e/w will have to do, at least I didn't lose anything!
As soon as the money starts coming in late you know he’s going to win. I think it drifted out to 9/1 at one point.
