Point of having a large squad is to eradicate poor performers. Is Son better than Richarlison? Absolutely, by a country mile and some. Is Son currently playing better than Richarlison? Absolutely not. He’s battling with Emerson to see who can hinder us the most. Therefore whilst Son’s in this form, Richarlison has to play over him. Son’s best bit of play this season came from the bench. That’s where he should be until he can turn those cameos back into full performances, because right now, we’re getting utter horse **** from him and it’s holding us back. But again, this falls back on Conte. His decisions are now beginning to cost us and his stubbornness is starting to really grate on fans, myself being one of them.
For Kane and Son, you have years of data of their scoring profile (frequency, gaps between goals in terms of 90 min games etc) . For example, we all know the folklore of Kane and august of any PL season. I suspect that the profile for Son, and some psychology (his "body language" etc) would have pointed to doing the Lesta thing 1-2 games earlier.
My view is that having won the Golden Boot, Son is being very heavily marked and is struggling with that. But that means that other players have more space which may be why we are scoring more goals and conceding fewer this season. How that is going to be improved by playing an inferior player who won't need to be double marked is beyond me.
I would be interested in some proper analysis of this. I've actually spent quite a lot of time looking for evidence of form as a predictive tool (not just in sports, also in financial trading performance) and never found a leading indicator or any other research that claimed to. But it's your specialist area....
He’s been heavily marked for 3-4 years, opposition haven’t just suddenly realised he’s a good player and a goal threat, that’d be incredibly naive to think so. If Son were on form we’d have far more goals and wouldn’t be struggling in a number of games this season, the goals scored in the Leicester and Southampton games don’t paint a real picture of how difficult we’re finding it to score at the moment and Son is a large reason for that.
To halt the negativity train for a second, gotta give a shoutout to Lenglet. Think he’s settled in really well and is easily the most composed CB we’ve got, ironically got a little lucky last night as he could’ve got a second yellow but in general he had another good game and looks nothing like the player who’s confidence was shot at Barca. I know we don't have an official buy option but I hope the club’s got an eye on speaking with Barca down the line about the possibility of signing him permanently if he keeps up his early form.
Build the profiles yourself (the source data is out there) . Compute a "rolling average" profile for seasons 2-N. For each season S = [3,N] , do differential analysis on the profile of S to the mean profile for seasons 1 to N - 1. Then for Son and the first 6 games of this season, compute a probability that he would have a gap of 6 games between scoring (histogram derived from the profile data set, "bins" being the gaps between scoring) .
I don't think that it's necessarily poor form that's affecting us, as much as the system. We don't have an available right-winger and we're playing a fullback at wingback. It's heavily restricting that side of the pitch, even when the players in those positions do alright. I'd like to see an additional body come into the midfield and a wingback in place of Emerson. Bissouma freed up Hojbjerg and Bentancur when he came on against Leicester. Benching Richarlison and starting Doherty would be my choice. I think that this would give decent support across the side and allow options from the bench. We'd still have backup for every position and the ability to change the system, too. Persisting with the 3-4-3 without Kulusevski and Moura seems to be damaging the whole side.
There's definitely evidence of players doubling up on our left flank after last season, most obviously the Chelsea game where they often tripled up on Son and, as a result, Sessegnon ended up playing as a traditional LB due to our getting overrun down that flank The issue is that we're exacerbating that issue by having the main creator for Son last season, namely Harry Kane, play as an out-and-out forward so the passes that Son thrived off of for the past couple of seasons aren't there anymore, and there's little chance of Hojbjerg or Bentancur replicating those passes if our midfield finds itself getting overrun which has also been an issue at times this seaosn
A theory, by CK. Hear me out on this one. Interested to hear your thoughts. Could it be that we are overlooking the impact of the upcoming WC? Could it be the case that Kane and Son especially are playing within themselves and look somewhat distracted (much more pronounced in Son's case it has to be said) because at the back of their minds they are a month away from what could well be the last world cup they play in? And even if they go on to feature at the ages of 33 and 34 respectively, it is safe to say that this will be their last world tournament where they are at the peak of their powers. We're talking about two players who care deeply about representing their national teams, and will captain said teams to the biggest stage in international football for possibly the last time. I'd also be massively distracted right now. I hadn't considered this possibility at all until literally 5 minutes ago. If there's any truth at all in what I'm saying, I wonder if other teams either in the PL or in other leagues have seen a similar drop in form from players specifically in the 29-32 yo region for whom a world cup in the middle of a season could actually be quite a major subconscious burden. Hmm.
There's no doubt the WC will be a disrupting force in the season and its hardly been spoken about AFAIK. Whether it is disrupting players now is very difficult to acertain. I don't think Son is protecting himself in games if anything he is trying too hard but if your theory is correct he may not even be concious of the distraction. Kane, on the other hand, does look a little distracted to me. His ball control has been below par but is this because Conte is playing him further forward and we are losing his game changing passes. Is he having to think too much about his positioning? The team as a whole might be, like us fans, dissapointed with the performances and beginning to wonder about Conte's tactics? Still we have all that exciting Southgate style football to look forward to, it certainly distracts me but perhaps not enough.
I don’t believe that players are playing within themselves because of the WC unless it’s only Spurs players these things affect City players seem to be playing at the same level as every season. Arsenal see to be trying harder and playing much better than last season Maybe the Pool fans can make that argument considering where they are in the league, I don’t know as I haven’t watched them week in week out. Brighton players seem to have improved during WC season if the table is anything to go by but Spurs players….hmmm I’m not having it
There is film going round of Dier walking with a bad limp as he got off the team bus Tuesday night , just what we need
It's almost impossible to compare like for like though. How many other PL players are there who captain their country and are of an age where this WC could be their last? Roman Saiss is Morocco captain and 32 years old. He's been crap for Wolves this season. Van Dijk is Holland captain and 31 years old. He's been crap this season. There is something to this theory, I'm telling you. The only anomaly is Granit Xhaka who is 30 years old and Swiss captain, but he has always identified as more Albanian. There was that whole controversy a few years ago with Shaqiri when Switz played Bosnia iirc. Telling you bruh, I'm on to something.
