Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2022

I think that Tuesday could be a live contender. Obviously she would be facing Alpinista once again but the ground will almost certainly be easier at Longchamp. At York there was a good covering of grass but it was riding fast. That really favoured Alpinista and she was value for more than the winning margin.

Clearly something was amiss with Tuesday in the Irish Derby when Westover won easily but that one ran poorly in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes next time, as did Emily Upjohn.

After York, the Arc betting market is quite confused because half of the bookmakers have introduced Juddmonte winner Baaeed as favourite at around 5/1 or 6/1; but I do not see any realistic prospect of him showing up. I think William Haggas was being mischievous post race when he suggested that the Arc was being considered. The horse is odds on for the Irish Champion Stakes and the (English) Champion Stakes.

Alpinista, Titleholder and Torquator Tasso are all trading at 7/1 and I really like Sir Mark Prescott’s mare as she is adaptable in terms of running style and could be put anywhere in the race. King George winner Pyledriver is probably over-priced at 14/1 but he only has one way of running and he would be shorter if he came from a big yard. As Westover is probably going to the St Leger, I am not sure why he is 22/1 when the St Leger favourite New London is 25/1 (the St Leger-Arc double has never been done despite some very good horses trying it).

On the day, this could turn out to be one of the most open races in many a year with the bookies going 4/1 the field.

 

Certainly agree that Tuesday is now a very real contender for the Arc. I recall Bustino commenting some time ago that she was very light-framed, etc., (cannot remember his exact words). We all know what a very late foal she was. I, like the lady commentator on ITV before the Yorkshire Oaks, was astounded with her appearance in the parade ring before the race. She looked terrific IMHO. Tuesday had put on weight, was well-muscled, and to repeat, looked just fantastic. I backed her in the Oaks at Epsom, and admit to being very lucky, as she was far from being the complete racehorse. She won the race by sheer guts and never-say-die attitude, essential ingredients.

Therefore, I am definitely making Tuesday a very real Arc contender this year. Sincerely hope I'm not talking a load of crap, Bustino, but I am no expert on subjects such as this one!

 

I agree Swanny, she looked a completely different horse in the parade for the Yorkshire Oaks. No surprise as she was very light in the Epsom version as Bustino said. If AOB is aiming her for the Arc, she will no doubt come on a lot from that. Also though, Alpinista has been aimed at the Arc since missing out last year, and we know what she did to last year's winner. We also need to know how Luxembourg came out of his reappearance run as I suspect the Epsom Derby form was better than the Epsom Oaks this year and he may well have won the Derby, based on his pedigree and 2000 Gns run

 

Should New London win the Arc he'd snap a trend going back almost 50 years. Namely, no horse since Star Appeal, in 1975, has won The Arc in the same season as running in a handicap (Star Appeal, by the way, was beaten on his seasonal bow at Cologne).

See some nice points above re the filly who finished 2nd to Alpinista at York (Tuesday). However, as earlier stated the one I'd be hugely interested in would be the 4YO Frankel colt who finished 2nd to Alpinista in her previous run - the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. It was great, incidentally, to see Alpinista, at York, uphold that French form.

Still no entries for Baratti (apart from the Arc) so it now looks more and more likely than he's been aimed at Trials Day next month.

 

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I am disinclined to take Broome’s form at face value. He is not the first horse that Aidan O’Brien has sent over to the States in recent years chasing a big pot that has come unstuck. Other than winning the Hardwicke, he has hardly been excelling and he was only beaten a length and a half at Saratoga. Eight wins from 26 starts does not make him one of the top thirty horses ever sent out from Ballydoyle and he holds entries in the Irish St Leger and the Long Distance Cup as well as an Arc entry.

In the Grand Prix de Deauville on Sunday, another of the Japanese Arc prospects put in a mediocre performance as Stay Foolish was well beaten by Andre Fabre trained Golden Horn gelding Botanik, a horse rated 101 and owned by Godolphin. You can have 66/1 the Japanese raider for October 2nd but you would need to be an optimist as Botanik was stepping up to Group 2 to extend a winning sequence that started in the French provinces.

 

If Baratti is going to run on Arc Trials day (11th September) he is going to have to be supplemented. I have looked at the entries on the France Galop website and he is not in the Prix Foy. There are 18 entered including Adayar, Hurricane Lane, Stay Foolish, yesterday’s Deauville winner Botanik (ineligible for the Arc) and Verry Elleegant.

Japanese raider Do Deuce is entered in the Prix Niel and Verry Elleegant also hold an entry in the Vermeille along with Japan’s Fall In Love. Aidan O’Brien has five entered in the Vermeille, including Tuesday.

 

I am hoping the next race for Tuesday will be the Arc itself! Don't see the need for a prep.event? I really am beginning to warm to her chance in the big race. Never did care for this Broome horse at all, not a favourite of mine.

 

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That's not great news, I would have thought, re Baratti and The Arc. I would have thought they would have wanted to 'prep' the 4YO in the Foy. The non declaration not had any effect on his price though - remains 50/1 across the board on Oddschecker.

 

T'wasn't me either, I barely know how to login and logout.
He is, apparently, a 56-year-old male, so he ain't no 'chap-ess' Possibly deleted himself because Baaeed is a possible runner.To repeat a previous comment, I will be darn surprised if Baaeed does run in the Arc. Feel pretty sure he won't.

 

I merely tried to take an alternative look at the arc runners who's form tied in in Broome.
Didn't expect to encounter people who "don't care for the horse"
Or people who don't take form at face value (whatever that means). Form is form. Ipso facto.

 

Chap?? Chap-ess??
A horse racing forum which has never heard of Saratoga.
Christ on a bike.

 

There's a stat appearing all over the place, right now, re Baaeed and the Arc. The last Arc winner to be having its first run, at the trip, was Saumarez in 1990. 0/25 since that early 90's success.

 

I don't give a rat's rear on what you think of my comment on Broome, I meant what I said. And yes, we have all heard of Saratoga, that's just a plain daft remark.
EOS as far as I'm concerned. I do not appreciate being insulted by a damn newcomer (that's if you are).

 

A damn newcomer is exactly what I was to this forum. But as to the game there is nothing to be gleaned here. (With the exception of bustino74's threads) obscure but informative.. thank you.

I truly believed you meant what you said, which I why i tried to delete my posts but could only edit the text.

 

If I was going to do an outsider in the Arc right now, I think I would look at a pair of Derby winners.

Well, 33/1 Adayar, last year’s Epsom Derby winner could still show up and he is the top rated horse after Baaeed. Just a concern that they might be targeting the Champion Stakes if Baaeed heads to Paris.

And how about this year’s German Derby winner Sammarco at 33/1? He is due to face last year’s Arc winner Torquator Tasso in the Grosser Preis von Baden at Baden Baden today (4th September).

Have to wonder what is happening with Baratti as Juddmonte are not usually slow to announce plans for their horses and he is a well related son of Frankel that has only run seven times at three and four.