As Stick said, good result for me even though the sprint ended up being a sprint of 1! Jumbo Visma attacked in great form on the last climb. It was an interesting last climb for those in behind too, with Vingegaard looking much stronger than Roglic and Pogacar being caught out further behind on the climb. As such the market moved in favour of the Dane, but I think that is an overreaction given what is ahead today. 20pt staked 40pt returned Stage 5 - Follow the yellow brick road This stage is the one the first week has been leading up to, and 18km of cobbles can cause a lot of issues for a peloton that has mixed experience of racing on cobbled lanes. We have specialists at the tour, but we also have exceptional bike rides and then those who are less able! I think this stage is very unpredictable, and not just because of the cobbles. It has issues on who is going to be wanting to get into the Magnus Cort ™ breakaway, and who will be chasing it down. Then we have issues on who is going to attack and who is going to ride conservatively in the peloton and the GC battle. Then we have the question on who will be riding to protect teammates. So all in, its not a stage to go single handed into with a single plan, as a team or as a bettor. Breakaway - First bet of the stage is Matej Mohoric, who has had a great season, including winning Milan Sanremo. However it was his performance in Paris-Roubaix where he finished 5th, and what is most interesting is that he dropped time yesterday on a stage that should have suited his climbing ability. As such I expect him to be to the fore today and if he gets in a break he will be one of the favourites from that group. Favourites - The Specialists - Van Der Poel is the stage favourite, but Wout van Aert is the best rider on cobbles, so why is the market suggesting MVDP? Well, Wout has suggested that he will be on domestique duty for Rog and Vin (sounds like a swanky establishment), which will mean that he isn't going to try and win the stage. MVDP in comparison has been holding back in the first week of the tour, and as such he surely goes all out for the win today, but everyone knows this, and that makes it hard for him. His team will be expected to help regulate the distance to the break, and other teams won't want to drag him into the finale. If he is in the hunt, he will win. Worth a dabble too. Quickstep - a team of specialists, and as such they could try and infiltrate the breakaway AND have riders in the peloton ready for the finish. If they can get one in the break then it means they don't have to chase, which would make them even more dangerous. They have stage 1 winner Lampaert who was so unlucky in Paris-Roubaix and then they have French Champion Senechal, who will be looking to win on the cobbles in the French jersey. That would be a heck of a story!! General Classification - How will this end up? They are pretty inexperienced on the cobbles, but this season they've competed and done will in the cobbled races, with Pogacar excelling on his attempt. His issue? Like always it is his team, he doesn't have the best support set up for the cobbles and it might be that he is left exposed to others who can attack in numbers. However, if anyone can combat this, it is Pogacar, who in Vlaanderen managed to finish in a group with MVDP, Van Baarle and beat Kung, Pidcock and Benoot! It could be that he can be the attacker today, and if he is, who would put it past him to win the stage as well! Pog and Vin have an interesting one, they've got great support in Benoot, Wout and Laporte to name just three, but if they get split up by mechanicals or attacks, who will be kept with each team leader and how will they ride as a team? Similarly the trio at Ineos, they have Pidcock and Van Baarle as support, but what happens to that team if the GC riders get split up? It could get extremely confusing and exciting!! I am expecting Kung to stay with his team lead (Gaudu) otherwise he would be another who has a great chance. Bets MVDP - 4pt @ 4.6 Mohoric - 2pt @ 18 Senechal - 2pt @ 19 Pogacar - 2pt @ 32 These are all on the Betfair Exchange. Hopefully they will be competitive today!!
Felt like a defining moment, didn't it, unless the UAE squad can't support him on the big days. Pog really is a once-in-a-generation rider.
It did, but it felt more of a defining moment for Roglic to be honest, the changing of the guard at Jumbo Visma. I am really surprised by Pogacar today, not that he took time out of his opponents, but how deep he looked to have gone in getting what turned into a paltry time gap. If its tight between the GC contenders at the end of the tour, then Wout Van Aert and his effort today would go down as a superstar ride.
So a stray haybale was the reason Roglic went down, and he had to put his shoulder back in before returning to the race. Some effort that. Today looks a breakaway stage, its the longest stage of the race and it is up and down all day, with a decent 12% ramp towards the finish. If it was raced by the GC teams, I would be having my money on Wout again, but after yesterdays colossal effort, I am sure they will be happy to let a breakaway go down the road. The stage relies on a strong breakaway going, and I expect the early stages of the stage to be battled hard, and I think we will see strong stage racers go down the road in a group of 5 or 6. Whoever is in this group should have a brilliant chance of winning the stage. So who? Mohoric is down on the GC, and as such he has to go for stages. He didn't yesterday, so will he today? Tim Wellens - well he is always likely to go up the road Michael Matthews - This is perfect for him Victor Lafay - If he got in the break he would be favourite So each 2.5pts Wellens 30.0 Mohoric 12.0 Matthews 23.0 Lafay 30.0 Win only
What a tremendous rider Pogacar is! His finish today was devastating. I see the bookies are being generous as usual with his price for overall winner....4/11. They're a joke. His chances of a crash or injury make a mockery of that price.
Already its been a memorable tour with some outstanding individual performances. Pogacar is just in a class of his own. I actually think the market is fair. He is always in the right place despite not really having the back up of a strong team. Magnus Cort Niellson has been simply brilliant with his combative rides and you can expect to see him in the break again today. Other performances to note from Jakobsen, Van Aert, Pidcock to name but a few. Todays stage will most likely be one for the climbers as the break will find it hard to stay out unless it has numbers and quality. Dylan Teuns would be of interest if he gets in large enough break. Ineos Grenadiers are having a good tour with several prominent riders and you can expect to see them with a handful of riders going up that last hill probably with Pog at their wheel. Yates and Thomas are likely to be in with a shout today and another with a fair outsiders chance is Nairo Quintana at 66/1. Quintana is quietly creeping into this Tour. I suspect that he knows he probably cannot beat Pogacar in the GC but looks to me like he is riding for a podium place whilst hoping some disaster or other befalls the young Slovenian. Stage 7 Teuns 20/1 Quintana 66/1 Thomas 100/1 GC Quintana 12/1 top three finish
Been out at Ravenswell this morning so a little late to this. I just can't see a tactic they can unleash to unsettle Pogacar, let alone beat him. Today is all about the break, I can't see Ineos or Jumbo Visma setting it up for another Pogacar win and instead will let the break go and then try an ambush on the big ramps of the final climb. As such I am backing those from the break. Ben O'Connor, he has been very unfortunate to be out of the GC picture, but this stage is one he surely attacks. Warren Barguil is well down on time, and whilst he might be on domestique duty, I am tempted by him at big prices. However the one I am really intrigued by is Ruben Guerrero who won the Ventoux challenge. Guerrero - 3pt at 16/1 O'Connor - 2pt @ 13/1 Schachmann 1pt @45/1 Bardet - 1pt @ 60/1 So 7pt staked before the stage. I will be aiming for a bet in play with the rest of the 10pt stake
I might actually watch a few km today, now the serious climbing starts. I do find it less exciting when one rider is so dominant though - it was the same with Froome a few years ago.
Happy Wout day! Prices look a gift today. So much so that I’ve even been able to back a few breakaway types as savers. Honore Kung B Thomas however Wout surely wins the day, he and Pog are the generational talents and with a weak MVDP and Pidcock likely to be on duty again, I just can’t see anyone staying with him if he attacks on a climb like earlier in the race. Only worry is that they will let JV chase down the break and if they aren’t able to do so, it could be a specialist from the breaK.
Not much time again today. Wout won which was a good result for me! Surprised they took Pogacar to the finish and he took 4 bonus seconds Today should be about the break and I expect Kamna to try and be in the break. Kamna Mollema Pinot Bardet that’s the four for me today with Kamna the big favourite
I don’t think cyclists are bothered by that sort of thing, they seem to expect being caught and it doesn’t seem to bother them if it’s the GC riders. what does seem to impact is any slides going downhill, that’s when the bottle goes, which we’ve seen with a few riders in the past. also being caught by another breakaway rider has an impact.
like the tour of suisse , tommorow the whole peloton is tested , could be many who are forced to drop out, betting on outright winner has never been so unpredictable due to this ..........some squads are much more cautious than others about this issue ......
