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Off Topic Tour De France 2022

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by NassauBoard, Jun 29, 2022.

  1. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Evening all

    Wanted to create the TDF 2022 thread.

    Preview

    Yellow Jersey

    It surely is all about Pog versus Rog right? You have the dual and reigning champion Tadej Pogacar versus the might of Jumbo Visma (think Team Sky back in Wiggins/Froome times) with Primoz Roglic likely to be their number one rider.

    I do think the countrymen will dominate early conversations and they dominate the market for the yellow jersey

    Pog - 4/6
    Rog - 4/1
    Vingegaard - 4/1

    and that is where it gets interesting. A second rider from Jumbo Visma towards the top of the market, and can they work together to exploit any weakness they can find in Pogacar?

    At this stage I would say it is doubtful, but similarly I wouldn't be rushing to back Pogacar at odds on, in what is a tour that could be dominated by the dreaded Coronavirus. It ripped through teams at the recent Tour de Suisse, and who knows if it could do the same here.

    Outside of the top three, the next in is Geraint Thomas, who will no doubt fall, ride head first into a tree or find some other spectacular way to injure himself in the tour. His Ineos teammate Daniel Martinez is next in, but again I can't see him figuring against the might of Pog and Jumbo Visma.

    Green Jersey

    This is usually the sprinters jersey (or Peter Sagan), but this year we could be in for something a little different, with many of the stages giving opportunities for explosive stage race riders to dominate, and that means we have chance to see the competition between Wout Van Aert (of Jumbo Visma), Thomas Pidcock (Ineos) and Mattieu Van Der Poel (Alpecin) hot up. All three of these are excellent stage racers and whilst we are missing the dynamic Frenchman Julian Alaphillipe, I expect fireworks from these three alongside the sprinters which are led by Quickstep (hurrah!!!) but not the manx missile Mark Cavendish but their ultra talented Fabio Jakobsen. Caleb Ewan is here too, and he has a great record in the sprints.

    If it came down to sprints, your money would be on Fabio. However this year, it will be about battling through stages as well as winning sprint finishes. As such the market is dominated by Wout Van Aert, who can sprint, can climb and can rip a race apart. You wouldn't bet against him, but again at odds on, I wouldn't be wanting to be with him either.

    Polka Dot Jersey - King of the mountains

    Now then, a market with plenty of openness, with Thibault Pinot leading it at 7/2 from Pogacar at 4/1.

    This will depend a lot on legs and the strength of the riders and whether they are targetting the jersey or not. It has been said that Pinot is at the tour to support others, but I don't think that will prove to be the case. I also think he will be well marked in the race, others will be targetting him and chasing him down. That will make it hard for him to win stages, and also gain polka dots.

    One to watch here is Ruben Guerreiro who won the Mont Ventoux race that is used as a preparation for the tour. At around 8/1 he is interesting. The worry as with all the riders is, will he be too close to the front of the race in terms of time, and will he be working for another rider in the team. If he loses time early, then I will be backing him in this market.

    White Jersey - Young Rider

    Pogacar. Move on.



    The Route

    This season they start in Denmark, with a short snappy and technical Time Trial, which could see Fillipo Ganna (Ineos), Wout Van Aert (Jumbo Visma) or even Mattieu Van Der Poel (Alpecin) take the yellow jersey.

    We then have a flat couple of days before the race heads to France. Those two days will only be interesting for General Classification if they have side winds.

    Another relative flat day starts the Tour proper, before the big early day of the cobbled roads. If Stage 5 becomes a test, then it could break the main contenders apart in the General Classification and help set the pattern for the rest of the tour. I expect Jumbo Visma to test the race favourite in this stage, but Tadej has been very good recently with cobbles and he is an excellent bike handler.

    Stage 6 should be one for the explosive riders, then Stage 7 is the first climbers stage. This will be an interesting start to the mountains. Stage 8 has another smaller climb to the finish after a decent day in the mountains, and then Stage 9 takes them into the rest day with another climbing day.

    At this point the race will be into a rhythm, and it will be interesting to see if major timegaps have been opened with the cobbles and then the mountains.

    After the rest day, they have more climbing!! Lots of uphill finishes should help open time gaps in stages 10 and 11, before Alpe d'Huez on Stage 12. Stages 13, 14 and 15 look days for the breakaway, and the general classification riders will be wanting to recover their energy for the final week.

    More uphill finishes on Stage 17 & 18, then finally another sprinters stage!! Stage 19 will seem a massive opportunity for any sprinter left in the race. Then it is the time trial & then Paris!!

    The route is set up for proper climbing battles, and if Jumbo Visma can get ahead of Pogacar in the cobbles or early stages, then it could prove a case of him having to attack and them being able to defend and counter attack in numbers.
     
    #1
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  2. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    I love watching Sagan, Nass. He's such a maverick and loses many races he should have won- as well as those he has. Apparently , he's had a mystery virus, so how he'll perform is anyone's guess. What do you think of him?
     
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  3. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Ive been a massive fan, he and Alaphillipe have been two of the most exciting riders to watch. It’s great that he’s had a win this year but I do think the TDF is a step too far for him.

    I think this year is a changing of the guard moment for sprinting and stage winning mavericks. With no Cav and the emergence of massively powerful riders the race should become even more exciting.

    It would be great to see Sagan winning another stage, let’s just hope he doesn’t have to go to dirty tactics to make it happen
     
    #3
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  4. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    I've never been a keen cyclist but I do think the TDF is a fantastic event and quite unique in the world of sport.
    Ever since I started watching it on Channel 4 years ago I've been captivated by it.
    I think Sean Kelly is a marvellous, knowledgeable commentator- as good as anyone on TV.
    I'll be glued to it tomorrow after my golf- roll on!
     
    #4
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2022
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  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Similar here, I wouldn't dare get on a road bike, i've heard what Oddy and other folks have managed to do to themselves on the road, and what I find really disappointing when cycling on roads in the UK is what a poor view it is. All you see is hedgerows and vehicles.

    As such, I try and stick to off road easy trails when using the bike, somewhere you are less likely to be hit by a vehicle!

    Agree completely about Channel 4 and also Sean Kelly, and to be honest I think the whole group of commentators on TV are brilliant, but its the scenery, the history and the unexpected that makes the TDF so special. Three weeks of lovely scenery with smattering of history and then the madness of the tour. The pepper spray, the hay bales, the falling flamme rouge, the broken down bus, the avalanche closed roads and the idiots with big signs!! And I think I am right in saying all of those things have happened in the last decade!!

    I just hope the big story this year isn't Covid. I fear it will be though.
     
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  6. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, the scenery is something else! It was gorgeous a few years ago when they went to Sicily early on.
     
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  7. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Covid is ripping through Germany right now. I self-tested positive yesterday and confirmed at the test centre today. I understand here that only PCR tests go into the official statistics though - which is bullshit. I did a self-test yesterday and a (free) lateral flow test at a test centre and both were positive. Why would I now go and get a PCR test? I’m staying home until I test negative.
     
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  8. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    It will be some achievement if Pogacar can be so dominant again - but no reason to think he can’t be. Depends how well his team perform compared to Jumbo Visma I suppose but Pog can climb the **** out of anything.

    Got me thinking - imagine if the former Yugoslavia were still together. What an array of sporting talent they would have.
     
    #8
  9. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, we would be asking for them to be banned as they'd obviously be doping!

    It is a sensational rise for cycling in Slovenia, they've got five riders at the tour, and the top two for GC.

    Interestingly we have the traditional cycling countries above them in -

    France - 32
    Belgium - 18
    Italy - 14
    Denmark - 10
    Netherlands - 10
    Australia - 9
    Germany - 9
    Spain - 9
    Great Britain 8
    USA - 7
    Austria - 6
    Norway - 6

    If you think some of those countries have a very strong link to a team (Movistar - Spain for instance, or Ineos at GB) it really is astounding the development of cycling in Slovenia.

    What is really obvious though is that whilst we have the rise of Slovenia we do have the decrease in South America, with only three from Columbia in the race. The loss of Egan Bernal to injury has been a massive loss to the South America continent, they now have the same number of riders as Africa and Asia in the great race.
     
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  10. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Stage 1 - The Breeze Ups! (Time Trial)

    I love it when Grand Tours start with a Time Trial, it gives specialists a chance to wear the Yellow Jersey, and today is one of those opportunities, in what is Cycling's equivalent to a Breeze Up Sale. You get to see which is fastest, then you think they've got a great tour (or career in Horse Racing) and then they end up being a bitter disappointment for the rest of it!!

    However, I am not so sure that will be the case today, a 13KM full throttle ride through the streets of Copenhagen should suit those with great bike handling skills and a very powerful set of legs. It's like trying to find a 6 furlong sprinter suited to Epsom!!

    Filipo Ganna is favourite to take yellow, he is an exceptional time trialist, who rides for a team who invests heavily in Time Trial suits and bikes. He is the correct favourite and at even money he probably looks as good as the top lot in a breeze up would look when running in a maiden race on rules debut. However, I am slightly concerned about him on such a turning course, I would certainly class him as more of a flat track bully!!

    In the Giro two teams came to the fore in the short Time Trial, with Simon Yates winning for Team Bike Exchange and Mathieu Van Der Poel for Alpecin. Both teams have the same supplier of suits I understand and it might just be that they are ahead in the technology race.

    This is akin to buying a good breeze up horse and sending it to John Gosden, rather than Michael Bell.

    As such, I expect MVDP to go well here and whilst Bike Exchange haven't got their time trialist here, I am hoping to see them put some decent displays in to boost confidence in this theory.

    However it could be Jumbo Visma (you will hear a lot about them) who could go very well here with Wout Van Aert and Primoz Roglic who are both brilliant time trialists, and whilst the latter will be suited to longer tests, the former should be making his mark on this course. Wout is a brilliant bike handler and I fully expect him to be going very well today.

    Stefan Kung is here, so he has to be respected, but he was beaten by Geraint Thomas in the Tour De Suisse Time Trial, which must rate as a concern for his supporters. Geraint should be in the top 10 today, if he puts in an exceptional effort, he could be top three.

    Then you've got Kasper Asgreen and Stefan Bissegger (has beaten Ganna this season) who both are very talented TT riders but I feel they will just come short here.

    Now then, one issue might be the clouds, and as such, I have put a little saver on Bissegger here.

    Ganna - 7.5pt - @2.3
    Bissegger - 2.5pt @ 4.4

    edit - prices from SBK
     
    #10

  11. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Backed some outsiders in the GC this year just in case we see some freaky happenings/accidents. My boy really should win again this year but its like taking 3/1 in the Grand National. So much could go wrong, including Covid.
    Ben O'Connor 40/1 who doesnt have to improve much from last year to get himself on the podium. He will be bang there in the climbs!
    Alexey Lutsenko 150/1 (4 places) proven talent for the Tour but maybe lacking the backup.
    Guillame Martin 300/1 a real competitor but would need things to go wrong for a lot of the top riders.

    A couple of bets for Stage One
    Tadej 33/1 it wouldnt be the first time he pulled off a time test surprise now would it. You have to think he may be slightly wary of going full bore on day one but he really only does have one way of riding
    Tom Pidcock top ten finish 7/1 a young man who can really light up some of this Tour
     
    #11
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2022
  12. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Not a bad start today with place money on Pogacar at 33/1, is there anything he cannot do.

    Pidcock rode brilliantly and was an agonising 0.04 from a top ten finish!

    When you watch the highlights Nass you will see your man Bisseger fall twice, the second time was almost amusing as he was looking at the camera car with a look of utter bewilderment.
     
    #12
  13. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    A glimpse at the betting market tells you all you need to know about Stage 2 today. It looks very much like a day for setting your sprinter up for a stage win. This would have been meat and drink for Mark Cavendish but he didnt get the nod this year and instead Quickstep gave the mantle to Freddie Jakobsen. We will see today how good a decision that was. The team are the masters at delivering their sprinter at the perfect time and he is rightly favourite. Others to note are Dylan Groenewegen and the classy Aussie Caleb Ewan. From slightly under the radar Alexander Kristoff should definitely be in the shake up and at 33/1 he looks a fun ew punt to me. His team are not really in the same league at Quickstep, Jumbo, Ineos et al but if he can time his challenge he should give supporters a run for their money.
    Its a spectacular journey across the bridges today and the race could literally get blown apart if the wind comes whipping across those open stages. With this in mind I am having a small saver on Tom Pidcock again. He proved yesterday that he is a star in the making and Ineos always come to the fore when stages get tricky.

    Win bet Dylan Groenewegen 11/2
    EW bet Alexander Kristoff 33/1
    Saver Tom Pidcock 100/1
     
    #13
  14. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Stage 2 - Redemption Day? Attempt 1

    Not sure if many will know the story of the days market favourite, but it is well worth a read - https://cyclingtips.com/2020/12/fabio-jakobsen-tells-the-story-of-his-crash-and-its-aftermath/

    To say him being at the TDF is a story, is underselling the enormity of his recovery and his mentality to get back onto a bike and then be competitive in the toughest of all elements in stage cycling, the bunch sprint.

    Yet, it is his selection over the Manx Missile that has caused most of the stories pre-tour. Mark Cavendish would have been going for overall history of winningmost stage winner, but instead his younger and dare I say, faster team mate was selected for the Tour instead. Cavendish only found out after he had won a brilliant British Championship and not in the way you'd expect to hear about missing out on the tour either. Via social media!!

    So, the stage.

    A flat and boring course in many regards, especially as its forecast to be dry (shame that forecast was wrong yesterday) and the wind is very likely to be a headwind, which should stop the most enjoyable element of flat stages, the ECHELONS!!

    So, I expect it to be a bunch sprint, but its the run in to the sprint that is most interesting, as they go over the bridges today, and these wide roads could cause carnage as the peloton attacks them, a touching of wheels could cause absolute carnage!

    The headwind though might calm it down slightly, you don't want to use all your riders up before the run in to the finish. As such, I expect most of the lead out trains to dominate and aim to peg back the speed of the peloton over the bridges, and set it up for a big sprint battle.

    Who has the best lead out? Well Morkov is here, so it is Jakobsen, and he has so many good lead out men in his team that they must be favourites to dominate the finale and then its whether he has the power to win the sprint.

    He has been dominant this year, but he has two interesting contenders against him today, Dylan Groenewegen (he of the crash) and the underrated in terms of the market, Caleb Ewan.

    The latter pulled out of the Giro early and at the Tour he doesn't have much of a team around him, but I think that could in some ways play to his advantage, he can surf the wheels and if he gets on Jakobsen's wheel for the finish, he could spring a surprise.

    Groenewegen could be the pantomime villain, if he was to take the win from Jakobsen, but he is dangerous (and not for his riding style) and he has beaten Fabio and also De Lie (one for the Vuelta possibly) in sprints already this season.

    Mads Pederson has been in great form this season and he could also compete in the sprint, whilst I would love to see Sam Bennett back to some sort of form, however I doubt he has the form to compete for the win.


    Not a betting day for me, I will be happy for Fabio to win.

    Wout Van Aert always deserves a mention, but surely at the start of a tour he isn't going to be fast enough or risk enough to put himself in the best position.

    Albert Dainese is another worth a mention. A stage winner at the Giro and he is very hit and miss, so at 25/1 he isn't the worst outsider.
     
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  15. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

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    Hope I'm wrong, but something that looks too good to be true often turns out to be so , the slovene team doctor has very iffy connections with past events , and while they havent failed tests yet , the Same happened with Armstrong for years , while in reality they were doping on an industrial scale.
    To many things dint stack up , the performances allied to rapid recovery from huge efforts ......
    G Man seems to have his mojo back , and if he can stay on the bike and avoid mishaps, he could well have a say once they hit the high climbs .......btw , road cycling in north wales is awesome, no hedges in the hills !
     
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  16. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    I hope and expect they are clean, the sport no doubt has its issues but the continual performance of those riders and the testing regime would make me hope that its talent coming to the fore rather than doping.


    Today stage has small chance of ECHELONS, and that makes it worth keeping an eye on. However it should be another bunched sprint, and again I expect Fabio to come out on top, he burst past Wout Van Aert in fine style yesterday and I expect him to confirm that form.

    The issue today is that Caleb Ewan and a couple of other sprinters didn't get to show their form yesterday with crashes and mechanicals, so it could be that others still have ability to challenge Fabio.

    One I liked yesterday on form was Danny Van Poppel who was too far back when the sprint started but ended up with a very solid 4th place. If there is a top 3 or top 6 market, then I would be interested in his chances in those markets.

    I need to get myself a B365 account for the Head to Head markets!
     
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  17. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Well, the TDF starts today. Well, restarts.

    Today's stage is a battle between sprinters, puncheurs and those in a breakaway. Given how close the time gaps are, and the cobbles looming tomorrow, I expect the breakaway to be managed and the race to come down to the last short climb and an epic battle to the line.

    So the key question today is, which sprinters will be climbing towards the fore and which ones can battle it out for the stage.

    Personally, I expect Jumbo Visma and Ineos to try and dominate the last climb, its relatively small but on a tight road, and those to the rear could be split away from the pack. As such, the battle to be at the front will be strong and it could help make the stage very tough for the true sprinters.

    Wout Van Aert has to be favourite if it does become a tough finish, although his run of seconds is very admirable, he does need that stage win!! It has been suggested that he will be on domestique duty tomorrow on the cobbles, and as such today may be his last chance to win a stage of the TDF in the yellow jersey. He has a strong team and I expect them to put Benoot on the front for the last climb to see if they can break the peloton into pieces.

    If they do, it will be a case of which sprinter can find their way into the bunch with Wout, and then can they challenge him? I would put Jakobsen as a possible, his team will be all out to put him to the front for the climb, but will strength in numbers help him enough? Caleb Ewan is a fair climber and should be able to get up and over with the group, but he doesn't have the support and will need to be in great form to get involved.

    Pederson is decent on the climbs, but will he be able to outsprint Wout?

    Or could it be a day for an Alaphillipe like effort, could we see a break on the climb and could someone solo to the finish? Well, if that was the case you would be interested in Pidcock and Moheric. However with a section of flat after the climb and the likelihood of teams still being relatively together, I fully expect it to come to a sprint.

    And the sprint to be won by Wout Van Aert.

    10pt win @ 3/1
     
    #17
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  18. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Its a bit of a soft start all round this year with a couple of harmless mountain stages before another rest day next Monday. Mind you, next week will be a killer - the Alpe d'Huez stage in particular. With the Pyrennes also looking pretty benign Alpe d'Huez could be the deciding stage for the GC.
     
    #18
  19. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Not sure about that, Stage 7 finish is very testing with the 20% and 24% "ramps" at the finish. Plus tomorrows cobbles and I would suggest they are more of a worry when legs are fresh than the pure mountains of week 2. I just hope it properly kicks off tomorrow and on Stage 7 rather than letting breakaways win both stages.
     
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  20. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    No sprint but still a good shout
     
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