The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 9th June)

Really not sure about Minamino as he didn't really look that great when on loan at Southampton. Seemed a bit lightweight and neither created or scored that many either. Obviously that may have been down to the team he was playing in but Saints have always been decent at home so would have expected more from Minamino in those games at least.

Summerville has only one year left on his contract so not sure a loan is the answer.

 

With the Elis link it seems likely that we are seeing the back of Poveda and sending Summerville out on loan. The problem is what do we do with Costa?

like I said I'm done with Raph it's clear he wants to leave so let him.

I reckon we'll sell either Ayling or Drameh come January.

AGgreed Shackleton can go but it does mean we would have replace him

 

Rapha was very clear in his last interview. He said he didn’t know where his future lay, agent dealing with it but if Leeds then he’d give 100%. Seems perfectly fair to me and no problem there. He’s still best player we have by a distance and hope he stays

 

Orta usually gets a new contract signed before sending them out on loan. Summerville could well be sold to German, French, Belgium or Dutch clubs, all will depend on how Marsch sees his new squad?

I reckon there will be some shock decisions, also reckon some players will refuse moves or not get any offers. I expect Shackelton, Roberts, Poveda, Costa and Klich to be sold. I expect Gelhardt, Greenwood to be retained for the first tea. Drameh may also be back-up For Kristenson and Firpo. Cresswell and Hjelde loaned out?

But some strange decisions coming

 

I agree. A fair few of our goals came from people shooting into crowded boxes and then someone picking up the rebounds or scuffed clearances and banging a short range goal in. The more taking those shots and picking up the rebounds the better. We also had wingers sending in passes with no one at the receiving end. Not sure on our missed chance ratio but 'Leeds may come to rue those missed chances' seemed to feature in every commentary. We also seemed to be shot shy for a good period of last season.

 

Statistically teams in the PL score way fewer goals from pot shots than retaining possession and passing or crossing the ball into the box. That's why you see managers going apeshit when some clown bangs it 20 yards over the bar rather than keep probing and looking for the defensive weakness.

Please don't ask me to provide those stats though as I made that bit it up but I'm sure it's true

 

Minamino you can create decent arguments for and against. Hassenhutl plays a similar pressing game to jm so in theory he should have ‘worked’ at Southampton … but didn’t really.

Re where most goals are scored? It’s actually a key part of JM’s pressing strategy and narrow formation. Most goals are scored in transition when defences aren't set... and I recall there is a ‘hot spot’ area on the pitch for winning the ball or passing the ball to quickly to score. Think it has a zonal 'name' but can’t remember it! Re Jammy's point - I think the stats are generally c90% of goals are scored inside the box.

it’s why he rabbits on about pressing to score. You try and win the ball in key areas and pass quickly to get good quality opportunities. It’s why players like aaronson are key for him… a mobile AM with an engine and a bit of pace and good first time passing. He’d rather we passed quickly and made mistakes… We won’t play possession football under marsch..

 

For those interested in this sort of thing, here is an analysis of Salzburg under Marsch.

https://themastermindsite.com/2021/02/14/jesse-marsch-rb-salzburg-tactical-analysis/

This vid gives an idea of the logic behind team set-up and strategy, especially about how the press works

Hey it's a slow news day

 

Afternoon all,

Good signing at rb.

I still believe Minamino would be a good signing and the squad is shaping up nicely.


Raph for me is staying for one more season. If his heart is set on Barcelona by they can't afford him then I think he is happy enough at the club to stay for one year until they can.

 

Is anybody else surprised at how strong Ayling's stats were?

 

No. He's very much underrated on here. He's a fantastic footballer. I was surprised we went for a RB instead of the more pressing problem of Firpo on the left.

 

Jesse why did you sign rasmus?..... Because i could and he is better than Ayling.

 

Turns slower than an oil tanker.

 

He might well be. I'm not really disputing that just yet.

I'm just saying that Firpo is by far the weakest link in our defence. I would have thought LB would be more urgent than RB at the moment. I understand the injury situation bur we do have Dramah.

 

Quicker than Firpo.

I will accept your apology in advance!

 

I am, to be honest. I didn't realise that he was so pivotal in the disruption / recovery area or in the receptions in the opponents box. Never noticed his end to end stuff really. Mainly cos I was watching him going up against fast wingers with my hands over my eyes.

 

More drama than drameh. Signing rasmus may see him gone to the championship. Ortas aim was to develop and sell u23s. We should cash in on him he only shone at cardiff. Not hard to get player of the season with that dross. Time to cash and i would sell wee jimmy and a few more. Kenneh has shown the ambition some of them have by going to the pub league. We have davies coming back too wonder what the plans are for him.

 

He got skinned a few times.

 

Are we talking mental reaction time now?

 

I'll help you out Jammy.

A four year study between the years of 2009 and 2013 for goals scored in the Premier League.

Total attempts at goal - 50,754
Total attempts on goal inside penalty area - 27,548 (54.2% of total shots)
Total attempts on goal outside penalty area - 23,206 (45.7% of total shots)

Total attempts on target inside penalty area - 10,155 (20% of total shots, 36.8% of total attempts inside area)
Total attempts on target outside penalty area - 5,811 (11% of total shots, 25% of total attempts outside area)

Total goals scored inside penalty area - 3,643 (7% of total shots, 13% of total shots inside area, 35% of total shots inside area on target)
Total goals scored outside penalty area - 692 (1.3 % of total shots, 2.98 of total shots outside area, 11.9% of total shots outside area on target)

So to summarise, on average :

For every 100 shots outside of the area, there will be three goals scored.
For every 100 shots outside of the area , 25 will be on target, thus 22 of those shots will not result in a goal, whilst 75 will sail into the crowd)
For every 100 shots anywhere on the pitch , 46 of those will be from outside the area, producing 1 goal

For every 100 shots inside the area, there will be 13 goals scored
For every 100 shots inside the area, 35 of them will be on target, meaning 22 will be saved, whilst 65 will hit the woodwork, and fly over the bar etc
For every 100 shots anywhere on the pitch, 54 of them will be from within the penalty area, producing 7 goals

Thus by working the ball into the penalty area from either crossing or retaining possession, you are 7 times more likely to score a goal, than by taking a pot shot from outside the area.

On average a goal will be scored from every 7.6 chances within the penalty area, where as to score a goal outside of the penalty area, you need to take on average 33 shots