You won’t get any 9/4... no, just 5/2, 11/4 and 3/1. So much for 9/4 being ‘value’, Donald. I hope your 9/4 was with a bookie offering best odds guaranteed so at least you got the 5/2, which presumably is ‘fantastic value’ now that it is a winner. Desert Crown is a “far superior animal” was unproven nonsense from you to justify your cretinous claim that 9/4 was ‘value’. How much money have you lost over the years backing far superior animals that have turned out to be selling platers? But well done on backing the winner. Since it was the favourite I am guessing that quite a few other people backed it without any of that ‘value’ rubbish because most punters are mugs who will back anything at any price if they think it is going to win, which is why there are so many wealthy bookies and poor punters.
I can’t get my head around that decision at all. Crazy in terms of proximity to the horses but also fireworks in the daylight lack the visual effect. In a matter of seconds it was just a huge cloud of smoke. Madness.
Desert Crown clearly looks like a good Derby winner as he won with authority and put the race away with a quick burst of acceleration and went four or five lengths clear with a furlong and a half to go. Whether the form turns out to be good is open to debate as the runner up was beaten seven lengths on its previous start and neither the second or third appeared to handle the track but the front three were five lengths plus ahead of the rest. The ‘unlucky in running’ horse of the race was clearly the third Westover, who would certainly have been second with a better passage. I note that he is the top horse added to stable trackers straight after the race. However, I think that Rob Hornby will probably be reflecting on what he said when interviewed immediately after dismounting. He reckoned that with a clear run he would have won. I guess as you cross the line less than three lengths behind the winner you might think that but Desert Crown was only being hand ridden the last half furlong and was value for a couple more lengths winning margin. You would think that having been hampered once early in the straight you would not go looking for a gap between two horses a furlong later and get stopped again. The Godolphin horses ran miserably – obviously I was watching for the one that I backed, Nations Pride. I have no idea why Jason Weaver selected Walk Of Stars to win the race as when I saw that big lean colt in the parade ring, I knew why it had been all over the place at Lingfield and was definitely the wrong horse to bring to Epsom. Weaver could have had 100/1 four places with me. It never went a yard and was virtually pulled up. I thought Nahanni lost his race in the preliminaries as he was getting worked up in the parade ring, did not really want to do the parade and was getting a bit too warm down at the start. Perhaps he has a little too much of Frankel’s temperament or perhaps it was just the occasion. That said, he still beat Nations Pride home but his race was done after half a mile when he got involved in a barging match so I did not really get a run for my money. I could not understand Ryan Moore’s tactics on Stone Age. He has won the last twice from the front yet when his stablemate Changingoftheguard set off in front (a horse that he won at Chester on with a tactical ride from the front) he did not go and sit up alongside it, where his horse would surely have been happier. Changingoftheguard did ensure that they went a reasonable lick but the time was nothing special as the winner coasted home unlike the Oaks, which was one second slower but a driving finish. It is quite probable that Star Of India did not stay; however, in the parade ring he looked the ideal sort for the race as he was not too big but after being in the front group early in the race he did just disappear backwards. So will Sir Michael Stoute want to go to the Irish Derby or will they drop back a couple of furlongs for the Eclipse? The horse travelled well enough that he could drop back to the stiff ten furlongs at Sandown.
Hes absolutely seething. Won like a 3s on shot, i said yesterday anything above 2/1 was value, i was wrong, anything above 1/2 was.
I called Desert Crown as a superstar pre race, just like I called Shishkin before the Supreme. I even said he was the best since Golden Horn. Its called judgement, its necessary to win pre race, you cant wait for the form book to tell you after the event. The Derby is where the form is established, they are all running in their first 12f G1, previous form is irrelevant. Desert Crown on debut ran 2 seconds faster than Walk Of Stars in 2nd division, despite the much stronger pace, he ran the final 3f 1/5 of a second faster. That marked him out as exceptional on debut because Walk Of Stars is a group horse himself. He then followed that up by thrashing a 110+ horse in the dante when half fit and has since thrashed a good older horse Solid Stone 6L in a gallop. Its quite incredible that you come on after the race when ive been proven completely correct that Desert Crown was far superior and call it nonsense just because you couldnt see it
Why would I be ‘seething’? I am quite happy to see anyone back a winner at whatever price. Other posters on here backed it and I am glad for them. I posted my selection and my reasons before the race and my horse had no chance after half a mile; that is racing. When people make stupid statements about ‘value’ based on flimsy opinions rather than any credible evidence, I feel perfectly justified in calling them out. As I posted on Saturday morning, if your wonder beast had been beaten, the silence would have been deafening. Your alter ego posted on the GC ‘Gord Bless You Maam’ thread that “anything above 2/1 will be good value” on the grounds that it beat an older horse on the gallops but that was the same errant nonsense. Do you want reminding about your “1. Desert Crown 2. Piz Badile 3. Changingoftheguard” prediction on Friday? The ante post tipster on SportingLife.com tipped the horse at 25/1 months ago.
I know you don't, but it is best to take no notice of this Glaswegian computer juggler. He keeps popping-back after being 'banned' countless times by the forum's powers-to-be, but returns like a recurring nightmare. Don't mean to 'advise' you in this respect, that would be daft of me, but just 'ignore', and carry-on with the good work!
You dont understand the concept of value. And antepost liabilities have no bearing on the market, betfair is the market.
You really are a cretin. There is no such thing as ‘value’ in a loser. If your last ‘value’ bet was at the Cheltenham Festival you must be extremely patient with your betting (or you keep quiet when you lose). Your ‘value’ bet on The Derby was posted on the GC thread to avoid the flack that you would get here, Donald. I have backed 7 winners out of 21 bets this flat season and have a 20 per cent profit. The shortest price I have backed was 11/4 (and lost) but I am not trying to delude anyone that I am some walking free Timeform – who did select the same winner. Let me help you out here: most of the on course bookmakers have no ante post liabilities, so the short priced favourite drifts with them because nobody is backing it. It shortens late on because the off course layers dump some of their liabilities. Betfair is irrelevant to the starting price. Try living in the 21st century or even the 20th century.
Interesting comment from trainer Mark Johnston after the Derby. He was disappointed by the run of his colt Royal Patronage. He said he's a colt that needs good ground and you don't get that these days, 'which is a nonsense'.
You dont understand the concept of value. If you get 5/1 on heads in a coin toss and it comes up tails, the 5/1 was still tremendous value, even tho you didnt get paid. If you ran this years derby 1000 times, youd make money backing Desert Crown at 1/2 or bigger. Ergo, anything above 1/2 was value. Hopefully you can now grasp the concept of value.
You really are beyond parody. You have no clue that the bookies mirror the betfair exchange. "Drifts because nobody is backing it" No, prices drift when they are being layed higher on betfair. You are the one who is firmly stuck in the 20th century, youre delusional and dont have the slightest clue whats going on in reality. But its funny to watch you make a fool of yourself
Clearly you know absolutely nothing about the bookmaking industry. I used to work in it. You could start by looking up definitions of some of the terms involved. Mathematics clearly is not a strong suit of yours. If somebody on the betting exchanges is offering you 5/1 about a coin toss they must be very poor and very stupid. Given your screen moniker, making a fool of yourself is your specialty.
