Saturday's Meetings Epsom Downs Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:50p.m. The Derby Off @ 4:30p.m. Tramore N/H 7 Races 12:45-4:10p.m. Listowel Flat 8 Races 1:05-4:07p.m. Worcester N/H 7 Races 1:10-4:45p.m. Doncaster Flat 8 Races 1:21-5:21p.m. Hexham N/H 8 Races 1:30-5:25p.m. Musselburgh Flat 7 Races 1:36-5:11p.m. Chepstow(E) Flat 7 Races 5:30-8:35p.m. Lingfield(E) A/W 7 Races 5:40-8:45p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Two for me at Epsom today in the sprints. First up Fine wine should double up on the York win and we’ll drawn and secondly mucika in the last. In the Derby I’d like to see Stoutes Desert crown win. His stable are in fine form this year.I’m having a couple of quid ew on Glory days. Some money has come for him and he doesn’t look to be bred to win a Derby, just a feeling.
I can’t believe 9/2 about Stone Age - seems to be no love for him at all. An O’Brien trained son of Galileo with Ryan Moore riding stepping up to 12F for the first time. Has Derby winner written all over it.
Stone Age has no chance, place lay looks very safe. Desert Crown is a superstar and 9/4 is good value.
Rightly The Derby is being run in honour of the late Lester Piggott but it is a shame that Her Majesty will not be present. With seventeen to face the starter most of the recognised trial races are represented in some form but there are some that simply should not be here. Why is El Habeeb even in the field after one run, fifth in a Listed race? It is quite easy to draw a line through a few of the outsiders as they have been well beaten in trials races by other contenders. Will Masekela decide to behave today or be withdrawn at the start like in the Dante? West Wind Blows comes in unbeaten in two starts but this is a big step up from winning an egg and spoon race at Nottingham from the front. From the jockey bookings it appears that Walk Of Stars is the Appleby second string but there is plenty not to like about his second in the Lingfield Derby Trial. He did not appear to handle that track, which does not augur well here, and he did not look like an easy ride. Last year’s winning jockey Adam Kirby is on third string Frankel colt Nahanni, who should definitely handle the track having won the Blue Riband Trial, beating Grand Alliance half a length with Lingfield Derby Trial winner United Nations only fourth. The bare form of both those races looks a bit short of what is required but Nahanni would be more my idea of the double digit price winner from the three horses. Two Chester winners – both from Ballydoyle – line up but both are difficult to assess. Changingoftheguard won a Dundalk maiden and then made all to win the Chester Vase, hammering the long odds on favourite New London; however, that was a tactical four runner affair and Wayne Lordan is unlikely to be able to do what Ryan Moore did that day with 16 rivals. Star Of India won the Dee Stakes (Sonny Liston third) over ten furlongs but again that does not look a very good race and the extra two furlongs here may be his undoing as the four year old full brother has only won one race and that was over ten furlongs. Frankel colt Westover represents Juddmonte and his three juvenile runs are only fair form but he won the Sandown Classic Trial over ten furlongs in battling fashion and the step up to twelve should be no problem as Ralph Beckett trains the four year old full brother that has won over twelve and John Gosden trained the older full brother to win six races. The dam, Mirabilis, was trained by one Robert Frankel for Juddmonte Farms. So, no forlorn hope at an each way price and would be quite a story. Piz Badile has not run since winning the Ballysax back in April and I wonder how much of his single figure price is down to the booking of Frankie Dettori. Donnacha O’Brien’s colt beat Buckaroo a short head in the Ballysax, the pair well clear of the favourite Duke De Sessa, who was giving 3lb having beaten the winner as a two year old in a Group 3. Clearly he is progressing but he will need to have found quite a bit in the last nine weeks as others have demonstrated better form since. One of those is Ballydoyle first string Stone Age who made all the running in the Leopardstown Derby Trail, thrashing Glory Daze by five and a half lengths with Duke De Sessa well down the field (a negative for Piz Badile). He clocked a good time that day and he also made all the running to win a Navan maiden by nine lengths on his previous start. He should clearly be much better than his official 115 rating but he is unlikely to have an uncontested lead today. The favourite Desert Crown also looks like a potential champion coming into the race unbeaten in two (therefore, lacking experience) but after winning his maiden last year easily, he dotted up in the Dante (Royal Patronage well beaten second). Having hardly had to move a muscle to win his two races, he is clearly much better than his 117 rating; however, drawing a form line through Bluegrass (fourth in the Ballysax, third in the Dante) he has the beating of Piz Badile. According to Timeform ratings, he is 3lb clear of Stone Age and they are tipping him on SportingLife.com. NATIONS PRIDE slammed Hoo Ya Mal seven lengths on the Newmarket Stakes in a good time and has won four of his five starts. He did not hold a Derby entry but connections have supplemented him and William Buick has decided that he is his best chance. Just like Stone Age and Desert Crown, he must be better than his 116 official rating, so I am taking a punt on him as he is the best odds of the three. The risk side is that his dam was a French trained daughter of Oasis Dream; he is only the third of her progeny to make the racecourse so he needs to get some stamina from his father Teofilo’s side. I hope that one of those front three in the betting wins impressively as we would then have a proper champion contender for the rest of the season.
I'm not overly convinced by Stone Age either, for all, he does have the breeding in his favour. Not sure of that Leopardstown win, can often seen a few impressive wins off the front end there and then flatter to deceive. I'd be with the Stoute runner myself, just about backable at 9/4 in a race of this nature. Thought he did everything In 2nd gear the last day and looks the type to progress again. Cue the Coolmore outsider
The Derrinstown hasnt produced a Derby winner for 20 years, the track is a conveyor belt that always exaggerates easy lead winners, the 2nd and 3rd were by Cotai Glory and French Fifteen. Stone Age is nowhere near good enough and i wouldnt be surprised if he ended up 8/1+ on exchange. Luxembourg was the top colt in Ballydoyle and probably the only 3yo who can compete with Desert Crown. Star Of India is the classiest of Obriens runners but that will be at 8-10f. Nations Pride is desperation from Godolphin, New London was their main hope and Walk of Stars is a G2 horse so Buick had to ride, but he probably wont place either. Piz Badile is the 2nd best horse in the race today and will win G1s in future. Changingoftheguard will probably finish 3rd and big player in Leger.
Donald Trump knows very little about ‘value’ and nothing at all about how bookmakers’ ante post liabilities dictate the odds. If Desert Crown hoses up then 9/4 will look very generous after the fact (as all winners do) and you will be along to say “I told you so”. If Desert Crown loses the silence will be deafening. The history of The Derby is littered with ‘value’ favourites that did not win. Remember 1986? Or 2002? What about those certainties in 1984, 1993 and 2018? On known form the front three in the betting are separated by just 2lb and nobody at this stage can possibly know which of those three has improved the most since last winning. If it were only a three horse race then 9/4 would be better than field odds and would be ‘value’ but as we saw in the Oaks, how the race is run and decisions made by jockeys influence final outcomes. Perhaps Richard Kingscote is on a steering job; however, Ryan Moore, William Buick and Frankie Dettori have much more experience of big race pressure than him.
Desert Crown is a far superior animal but good luck with your known form. At least after the Deby you will be able to bet him because the form will be known by then. You wont get 9/4 tho. 4/9 maybe.
On the day of the race I'm on Desert Crown, whether I like it or not, with my first ante-post bet in ages. Enjoy the afternoon folks, and back all the winners!
Horse like Desert Crown is why the whole game exists. Best since Golden Horn for sure, Arc will be the main aim id imagine now and he wont be beaten. Only his 3rd run today, plenty more to come.
Gosh, what a horse. Thank you Desert Crown, Sir Michael Stoute, Richard Kingscote, and all connections, for giving me my first ante-post winner (6/1) in, oh I don't know, a heck of a long time. Feeling very emotional as do many other racing fans, I'm sure.
Godolphin and Coolmore put in the shade there. I'm still mystified that Coroebus wasn't entered. Probably wouldn't have beaten Desrt Crown but...
Absolutely idiotic, a stupid idea. Also. those few protesting clowns who got onto the track, and so delayed the start, should be chucked in the local slammer to cool off. The police did a good job in dragging the morons off the course, and if the cops were heavy-handed, so what. They, and their like, are a menace to society.
