Short term rough patch We have more longer term rough patches than we have good purple patches. Im not saying he should go, I’m very torn, but lets not kid ourselves that right now is the exception to the norm!
I'm still in the "Ralph in" camp, but I do think this season has weakened his position. There's now a very realistic prospect that we'll finish with fewer points than last season. Given how appalling we were for the entire second half of last season, that's some going. A lower league position, a worse GD, and fewer goals scored are also all possible as compared to last season. That is the opposite of progress. And that is despite having a deeper squad, making some decent signings (the likes of Tino and Perraud have certainly worked in my view), and not having the same degree of injury troubles as last season. The excuses which existed last season can't be applied, at least to the same extent, to this season. Now this is absolutely not me saying that we should be higher in the league. When putting all 20 teams down on paper, I really don't see us a top 10 team - and yet if we had scored that injury time winner yesterday, top 10 is exactly where we would be right now. But I struggle to see where the progress is from last season. If you're going backwards - or, at best, stagnating - then that will always result in a manager's position coming under question. Even in a normal season, a two week international break provides a club with a window for replacing their manager. The unique mid-season break which the World Cup creates next season is likely to be an extension of that. If our fortunes haven't reversed by then, I wouldn't be surprised if Ralph was to leave either before or during that break.
Great post St Brendy. Proverbial 'nail on the head' - have we progressed from last season? This should be assessed in terms of on the field performances of the players and Ralph in terms of setting up the team and his game management. Have moved on from last season with a deeper squad, an influx of better players and a squad whom Ralph has mentored to his style of play? The end of season table does not lie; whatever or anyone else has an opinion on Ralph, that is how Ralph will be, and should be, judged. I am not sure what Ralph will do around the World Cup but Ralph has said he is leaving in 2024, he possibly has one more season with us in any case.
As you say possibly one more season. He has said he'll consider retiring as this reports. https://theathletic.com/news/southa...g-once-contract-expires-in-2024/KZvMLLOGvn2n/
The things that have built up a lot of goodwill for me towards Ralph like playing fast exciting football, bloodying the nose of big clubs and going all out in the cup competitions have all been eroded slightly by this current run since the Villa defeat. The football has generally been of a slower more deliberate pace and the less said about the defending the better, he should've selected Broja and Che against Citeh in the cup and the timid submission against Chelsea was quite frankly embarrassing. Now is not the time for a change though with the possibility of investment into the team from the new owners in the summer but the performances will have to improve or we might well be in trouble next season if this current poor form continues into August and beyond.
The end of season table lies pretty frequently, really. It's the basis of the TED talk of our new CEO; there's a fair amount of variance in results, and as a result the table doesn't necessarily speak to what you can expect going forward. Is the table lying about us? A little bit. We're 11th in expected points, largely because the numbers say that we should be finishing more of our chances. Now, we know that poor finishing has been our great weakness, but is that something that Ralph or any manager can really fix? We're scoring from set pieces, which is both a testament to JWP and to the coaching staff doing well in drilling the team on routines etc to improve our conversion rate. Our big, glaring weakness in attack is conversion rate from open play. Per Understat, we have scored 24 goals on 317 shots, for a conversion rate of 7.6%. That's really, really bad. Norwich is the worst attacking team in the PL (by a mile) and their conversion rate from open play is only a little bit worse at 7.5%. To what extent does a manager have control over a team's ability to hit the target? I don't know the answer definitively, but I'd guess that it's "not much". We sold our only natural finisher from open play last year, and with the exception of Broja's purple patch, no one else has exactly stepped up and demonstrated the ability to turn chances into goals with any regularity. So what we need ultimately isn't a new manager, it's a couple good attackers. One that can finish chances, and perhaps one that can create chances that even our collection of ninnies can finish.
Good post Schad, but the end the season is a reflection of your overall teams performance and that of your contemporaries. If we are not creating and converting enough chances is indeed the responsibility of manager. He picks the players and he also is responsible for their training. So many on this website are happy to blame the players, its become convenient for some to deflect onto the players and Ralph himself contributes to complaining about them and not being man enough to say he ****ed up the selection, or he did not communicate correctly how he wants high press to operate. In any decent accountable business, the team leader lives by the success of his team in how he develops and motivates them and enjoys their success and is recognised by the company they all work for. Equally, as the team leader, you are responsible for their failing to deliver, Ralph is not taking this team forward, we are stagnating and any organisation should be assessing his performance.
But who should he be selecting? Who are the natural goalscorers in the team that he isn't playing? You can make an argument for Broja, though he's been off form. But beyond him, no one in this squad has demonstrated, now or in the past, that they're good at finishing. It's all well and good to say that if he was a true leader, he'd make them be good, but I don't really see any indication of that being borne out with other teams or managers, either.
I'd be interested to see how those chances are distributed across the season. Gut feeling is that early doors we were creating but not finishing but over the last 10 we are creating very little. Could be because our workrate has dipped somewhat and Ralphs game is all about hustle and drive. Also, all our creative players are really out of form at the moment. Armstrong, Elyonoussi and Redmond are all looking average. Least said about finishing the better when we are starting Shane Long.
In this bad stretch, we're still underperforming our xG pretty badly (10.98 xG in our last nine games, 7 actual goals) but there's no doubt that we've been worse about creating chances, as well.
I think it’s telling that we’re starting Long. My hunch is that it reflects a lack of effort in training and on matchday.
I still feel that Ralph has never addressed the issue in defence, we have the worst record of conceding goals in the league since he has been in charge and even when we have played well and scored the team has struggled to hang on to results. I believe that it could be resolved with the right coaching in defending as a team with a highly organised backline and a stronger mentality with better concentration.
Lost his right hand man a few years back, never replaced & I get the feeling this might be a bit of that stubbornness coming through again.
We defend well when we defend as a unit, from the front. Attack is the best form of defence, especially when your defenders are a bit pony..
This is one of these weird, apocryphal tales that fits a narrative (namely the ‘Ralph is stubborn’ narrative), but that simply isn’t true. Yes, Ralph lost his highly rated assistant, Danny Röhl to Bayern Munich (and latterly the German National team). Röhl was replaced by new assistant coach, Richard Kitzbichler. Now Kitzbichler may not be as good as Röhl, I have no idea. But the suggestion he has never been replaced is completely wrong.
I didn’t realise it would make him the longest serving manager since Chris Nichols. We’ve really churned through them.
With the exception of Long and Redman, the attacking players are all Ralph's additions. Ings was something of a blessing because we had a similar issue prior tohis recruitment For me, the success rate of Ralph's signings ha been mixed to say the least, Too many of his recruitments have not been good enough for this level. It is interesting that the likes of Livramento, Broja and KWP have been signed from English clubs. I find that those players recruited from French clubs have a greater tendency to flatter to deceive. It fascinates me on the BBC gossip column how international player recruitment seems to be even though this is far more risky that pursuing a settled, English player. I would like Saints to look closer at domestic players. Che Adams have been inconsistant in my opinion and Armstrong remains an enigma who I think has fallen foul of Ralph. I like the idea of recruiting from the academies of clubs like Chelsea and Man City and I do wonder whether the "real" impact of Raph will materialise later with the younger players that have been brought in to boast our own academy.
