Honestly mate I've done bugger all, I just feel for those I watch doing above and beyond the poor sods. Also those who have to deal with an annoyed public whose expectations and attitudes are fed by media bollocks. I know others on this forum have watched and worried as those they care about do stuff that helps keep us safe and well. Something those who choose to "exercise my 'uman rights" by not getting jabbed and masked should think about. My wife is however increasingly amazing me with her ability to do 2 jobs in the NHS, cope with her poorly mum, bonkers brother, and of course grumpy old me.
Seems the Lib Dems have won North Shropshire, which has been an ultra-safe Tory seat - with it staying blue for all but two of the last 190 years. They last lost the constituency in 1902. It’s a swing of over 25% from blue to yellow. A rough Friday in store for Mr Johnson.
Doubly rough because it looks rather like there was a lot of strategic voting with centre/centre-left voters, just as happened in the by-election a couple months back...this might've been a close race, but a large bloc of Labour support swung to the Lib Dems. When the voting public goes into "anyone but you" mode, it doesn't bode well.
It’s arguably the main reason Trump lost last time out. And why potentially him being in for 2024 would be good for the pretty beleaguered democrats Hopefully the non conservative voters keep that energy nationwide. There is always call for tactical voting and apps / websites telling you who to vote for in your constituency as the anti Tory vote but it doesn’t pan out
I would be looking forward to the next general election, if Starmer would agree to work with the other left of centre parties, to rid us of the BNP that the Tories have evolved into. Then we might be able to move to proportional representation to limit future Tory control. Incidentally, the only other country in Europe, using FPTP, is Belarus, which also, incidentally, is ruled by a dictator who is using migrants to undermine the EU, by allowing them into Belarus and then trying to force them into Poland, creating a human rights issue on the border. The UK is sending military engineers to support Poland. https://www.politico.eu/article/bri...to-help-poland-guard-its-border-with-belarus/
Think this has come up before but why didn’t Lab get rid of FPTP if it’s a Tory thing you’re alluding to?
I think there is a bit of division in Labour at the moment, the membership want rid, but the Unions want it to remain and are overriding the membership. It isn’t inherently Tory politically, but it artificially boosts their seat numbers, once upon a time it did for Labour too, but since losing Scotland and a lot of the North it now works against them too. The only parties that gain from FPTP are the Conservatives and SNP now who’s vote share is massively overrepresented in Parliament. The Unions and Labour politicians are a bit slow on the uptake that it no longer works for them. Their dilemma is that they would be trading their 2% chance of unrepresentative total control every 30 years, for a massively increased chance of power sharing as the lead coalition party.
The SNP have 64 out of 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament, which is elected by a mixture of FPTP and PR. They got 47.7% of the vote in May, which compares pretty well with the 45% they got in the 2019 GE, where they got 48 out of 59 seats. So yes, they are comparatively over represented at Westminster.
Looking at the two over represented parties that means there is no chance on binning FPTP Unless it is offered in trade for another Indy Ref in a hypothetical Labour led coalition. Then the SNP would really have to put their money where their mouths are.
Delusions of grandeur? Power? Having Murdoch, when Labour were last in power, in the tent pissing out instead of outside the tent pissing in, before he switched back to the Tories? The Tory party will always be favourites to win elections, simply because they attract the majority of the right of centre voters. The numerous left of centre parties will always split and dilute the vote and stop Labour from cleaning up, like they did under Blair, especially without media backing. Under PR the Tories wouldn’t have gained an 80 seat majority and the country wouldn’t now be sliding towards becoming a fascist state, as a result of the virtually unchallenged law changes they have voted or are voting through. If Starmer does get into power it will be because Johnson has ****ed up, rather than under his own steam, especially as he has haemorrhaged members through his ditching of all his leadership promises. The North Shropshire constituency showed what can be done, when voters work together, for the good of the country. I would genuinely love to see the left of centre parties make a pact to oust the Tories, by not opposing each other in some constituencies, under the understanding that PR becomes a thing of the future.
Just reading around there is a lot of Labour supporters, maybe from the Corbyn side of the party (but not all) that are furious at the result and say they should have been winning the seat. Having a crack at Starmer being a weak campaigner. These people are a Tories best friend. Sheer arrogance and ignorance.
Starmer has alienated the entire left of the Labour Party, as a result of the lies he told to gain the leadership and his treatment of Corbyn and so many MPs who are also to the left of the party, so there will be plenty of people criticising him. I don’t know how well Labour campaigned, but I don’t think Labour should have contested the seat, because they could have split the vote and left the Tories in power. Right now, I don’t care who wins the constituencies, so long as it isn’t the Tory party, which has pretty much become the BNP now. I also don’t agree with the calling of those who criticise Starmer as being arrogant, ignorant or the Tories best friend. Many of them will have voted for him to become the leader of the party, based on him saying that he would continue with most of Corbyn’s manifesto promises, that were hugely popular in 2017 across the board. Starmer has reneged on all of those promises and hasn’t yet put forward anything that people can get behind, so on that basis I can understand why some will be calling his campaign weak. And I can also understand if thousands of traditional Labour voters start voting for the Greens or Lib Dems because of him, which could lose Labour seats at the next general election, making Starmer the Tories best friend. I am deeply suspicious of him and would prefer someone like Andy Burnham to give up being Mayor of Greater Manchester and come back into a safe Labour seat and run the party.
That is a more fair and valid reason to have issues with him. My concern is with the number of people who just aren’t seeing the need for centre-left parties to work together I.e they will only accept Labour and a specific type of Labour even if it means never being able to actually achieve any kind of change. In an ideal world you should be able to stick to your guns and only vote for exactly what you want, but we need to get rid of our 18th Century voting system before we can have that luxury unfortunately, because the country is burning while the opposition gazes at its navel.
There is also the issue of people thinking we can jump from our current government to a “proper left wing” government. Our current population is at best a majority centre right and happily voted in this shower of ****e Happily voted in a bunch a corrupt charlatans that actively disdain (if not outright hate them). They seemingly happily punish minor slights committed by anyone slightly to the left - I guess due to preaching about ideological purity The conservatives don’t pretend to be altruistic so when they aren’t people don’t punish them. They seemingly shrug and think “well we expected that but at least I personally (and this is the key part) don’t have high taxes (or something similar)” We aren’t going to get a massive lurch to the left. The best that can be hoped for is another new Labour like government and then instead of messing up and allowing a lurch back to the right - use it as a platform to shift the Overton window to the left Those on the more legit left side of Labour will never accept this. And it is why they will fail. Every time No pragmatism at all. They honestly think at one point the British public will just snap and vote in a legit left wing Social Democratic Party. It is never going to happen. The entire history of British elections largely proves this. The only exception ever? After WW2. And when you consider the vast majority of the mainstream media march in lockstep with the conservatives and the archaic voting system as already mention it makes it even less likely there will be a drastic change
A lot of that is fair, but I disagree that the population is centre right, as the majority didn’t vote Conservative. Last election if you calculate right wing parties v left wing parties you roughly end up with 48% Right and 50% Left, somewhere in there is 2% of random parties that I don’t know anything about. I think we are finely balanced between centre left and centre right, but the electoral system is biased towards the Conservatives and over represents them as they basically have a wing to themselves.
I was mainly excluding Scotland as if they are needed for a left wing governing coalition they will demand an Indy ref and if that wins said governing coalition falls apart. But maybe the numbers are still close in the rest Not convinced Lib Dems are completely left of centre. Socially maybe but not so much economically. Interestingly there isn’t a reverse - labour style economic policies but more socially conservative
Many on here recognise the need for electoral reform I follow and donate to the ERS. Some interesting reading here. https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/the-top-5-most-read-ers-articles-from-2021/ I live in hope rather than expectation.
