AOB you could say has been unlucky in the Derby, he's had alot of 2nds Treasure Beach, At First Sight, Fame and Glory, Soldier of Fortune, Dylan Thomas was 3rd(only beaten a short head for 1st), Oratorio, and that's just in the last 6 Derbys, I'm sure there are probably a few more 2nds if you go back further
Two Derby winners in eleven years is obviously "pathetic" in the worlds greatest race...dear God...objectivity is patently in short supply with such off the cuff and indeed "pathetic" utterances. As KS points out,the runners from the stable are highly competitive each year. Your lack of love for Coolmore is not in doubt QM,but should be tempered with a degree of rationality. As i've said before,they do go mob handed,but when their runners continually fill the places,and win,ergo running totally on merit,it represents a tremendous level of support for the great race. In 2009 they fielded 6 of the 12 runners,placing 2,3,4 and 5.Their multiple entries boost the prize fund and four of their runners were very competitive.Their 7th placed contender subsequently finished second in 2 G1's. In other words if the horrible goblin and his backers hadn't of turned up,STS would have won the Derby by 8l from Crowded House in a field of 6 runners. In 2010 Coolmore ran three colts who finished 2nd,3rd and 5th..Godolphin also ran three. In 2011 they ran four colts who finished 2nd,3rd and 6th..again,all collecting prize money. That's only a relatively contemporary resume. Nothing "pathetic" about continually supporting the worlds greatest race and always being competitive. Perhaps we should ban them?
A well constructed argument there Dexter, but it must be said that AOB is very fortunate with the ammunition he gets. Others yards don't have much hope of beating him, when he gets all these Galileo and Montjeu colts every year. Most trainers would give there right arm to get even just one colt with such outstanding pedigree. Even the likes of Cecil and Stoute, don't have the same backing as AOB does. Although I agree AOB has been unlucky not to have won more Derby's, considering the ammunition he gets, he probably has underachieves a little. Had a trainer like Oxx or Stoute had the same ammunition, I believe they would have had a better return. The most obvious failure to me was Dylan Thomas, AOB didn't even recognise the horse's ability before the race, he believed that Septimus and Horatio Nelson were superior, and he advised Fallon who was stable jockey at the time to ride Horatio Nelson. Dylan Thomas then went on to be the best horse AOB ever trained, if only he had realised that before the Derby
I would say it was highly unlikely that Dylan Thomas was the best horse Obrien ever trained, both Authorized and Manduro made him look rather ordinary anytime they came up against him and he is very fortunate that Manduro got injured before the Arc. He just held off Youmzain when real class horses took a couple of lengths out of him. Good horse, but Obrien has trained 4 or 5 better than him.
Possibly KS,and HN may well have won the race bar that awful fatal injury.AO'B has about a quarter of the 2-y-o's Godolphin have from all their satelite operations,and a smaller stable than SMS,who has always had a much more varied array of top owners. Cecil has always had top backing as well,and Sheikh Mo would have been better served keeping his stock with him rather than boycotting him and starting the most ridiculous and continually failing experiment in turf history. The fact that Godolphin have latterly reinvented themselves by buying Coolmore stock by proxy (Authorized,Teofilo et al) doesn't mean that Coolmore had the same financial backing,far from it,if financial variables are scrutinised.It simply means they are more expert. Regarding ammunition,some fire more blanks and rounds than others,even with more expensive weapons....just a case of hitting the target.
Eddie....I take your point on Manduro, though I would hardly say he made him look ordinary, it was a hard fought victory. I completely disagree about Authorised though, if you watch the replay of that race in the Juddmonte, Murtagh, who had a dreadful record on the horse got him boxed in and Authorised got first run on him, and Dylan Thomas chased him down once he got in the clear but it was to late, he just came up short. Both these defeats aswell were over 10fs, Dylan Thomas was a better horse over 12fs, he won the King George and the Arc that year, the 2 main 12f G1s in Europe. He beat Authorised in the Arc, and I think everyone would agree that Dylan Thomas was a better horse than Authorised. Manduro was a class act, though I still believe he would have had more chance of reversing that form over 12fs, it would have been a great race, that's for sure. As far as AOBs best goes, I'd only rate Rock Of Gibralter as a worthy rival to Dylan Thomas. Yeats yes he was great, but you don't realy believe that when Yeats first came along, that they wanted him to be a stayer, they hoped he could have won the races Dylan Thomas subsequently won
Latest ante-post odds... Two horse race for a Group One before end of 2012. Best odds...2/1 Tamerlo Racing.
Encke now a N/R (lame) so we are down to 5 - we might have that 2 runner field sooner than you think Tam
That Camelot looks very very good indeed. It might well transpire that the opposition weren't up to much but he couldn't have done it any easier. Looks a top class animal.
The 2009 Juddmonte was as good as a 2 runner G1, Sea The Stars, Mastercraftsmen and a couple of pacemakers
Those that have rushed in to back Camelot at prices from 3/1 to 5/1 for the Derby obviously have never heard of St Nicholas Abbey. At least the last supposed Ballydoyle wonder horse beat more than four rivals at Doncaster. Being a Montjeu, I will be interested to see Camelot running on proper fast ground. Given the trainer's chronic Epsom record, I would be happier to be a layer. Please feel free to keep bigging up Aidan O'Brien - statistically his Derby winning record is not worth mentioning. How many Derby winners has Sir Michael Stoute had in the last ten years from a fraction of the runners? Let me help you out - it is more than O'Brien. I seem to recall a couple of years ago one famous member of the old 606 Forum having obtained 2/1 any O'Brien horse winning the Derby and his six/seven runners that year failed to land the bet.
I don't believe any of the beaten horses had shown a great deal of ability beforehand, so like QM I feel his current price for the Derby is far to short. He looked good no doubt, but the form isn't great. If he had bolted up by a large margin then fair enough, but he only won by a couple of lenghs. He could be very good, but I would want to see him beat better horse's before I would even consider getting involved at 5/1 for the Derby. Either way it will give us something to discuss over the winter
Obrien said he wouldnt want it too soft and you will never see a Derby run on hard ground, good, or either side of it is fine for him so there shouldnt be any problems with the ground. Im on at 16s for the Derby, as are most people who fancied him today. There was something special about the way he won his maiden, it was just so easy and efficient, you knew you were watching a very good horse. Obrien has a good crop of 2yo's this year and he now has the best filly in Maybe and the best colt in Camelot. Its possible that he could win the Oaks and Derby this year if those two keep progressing. It was a weak renewal but he never came off the bridle and showed all the qualities needed to be a top horse. He is the best 2yo I have seen this year without a shadow of a doubt, irrelevant of the form. The form of his maiden was extremely weak aswell but his class is there for all to see.
Lads, interesting debate to just which horse has been A'OBs best ever horse. I'd like to throw another name into the hat and draw your attention to this video [video=youtube;r4QDBJblngs]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4QDBJblngs&feature=related[/video] 3 minutes 20 seconds in is the key. Fallon says this is "by far the best horse he's ever ridden" and AO'B says, and I'll quote: "he was obviously the best we've ever had i think" now it's possible this quote is out of context but imho when this horse was at his best he was AOBs best ever horse.
Toon....That video is a Coolmoore stallion advert, before they realised George Washington fired blanks. It was at the end of 2006, so you can take what AOB says with a pinch of salt, as there's been quite a few best he has had since, including So You Think this season. When Fallon won the Arc on Dylan Thomas in 2007 he said Dylan Thomas was the best he had ridden, in other words he eclipsed George Washington. George Washington was a fantastic horse, and he is certainly up there, but I couldn't rate him the best. He did get beat quite a few times
Dexter, you have obviously counted how many runners Aidan O'Brien has had in the Derby in his career. If your horses comprise almost a quarter of all the runners, then a fourteen percent strike rate is pathetic, compared to the twenty-one percent strike rate of Sir Michael Stoute, who only has six percent of runners. Since Aidan O'Brien's first Derby runner in 1998, the facts are: 1998 - 15 ran (AOB=3, SMS=1) 1999 - 16 ran (AOB=1, SMS=1) 2000 - 15 ran (AOB=1, SMS=0) 2001 - 12 ran (AOB=1, SMS=2) GALILEO 11/4 2002 - 12 ran (AOB=3, SMS=0) HIGH CHAPARRAL 7/2 2003 - 20 ran (AOB=4, SMS=1) KRIS KIN 6/1 2004 - 14 ran (AOB=1, SMS=1) NORTH LIGHT 7/2 2005 - 13 ran (AOB=4, SMS=0) 2006 - 18 ran (AOB=4, SMS=2) 2007 - 17 ran (AOB=8, SMS=0) 2008 - 16 ran (AOB=5, SMS=3) 2009 - 12 ran (AOB=6, SMS=0) 2010 - 12 ran (AOB=3, SMS=1) WORKFORCE 6/1 2011 - 13 ran (AOB=4, SMS=1) Follow Aidan O'Brien to a level stake at Epsom and you would be losing £39.75 while Sir Michael Stoute would give you a £5.50 profit. I am making a perfectly rational argument based on publicly available statistics. If you gave Sir Michael Stoute the horses that Aidan O'Brien has had at his disposal this century, he would have achieved much better results because he would not simply run all of them in every race in the hope that one of them would win. I am not disputing that some of the horses have turned out to be very good (if not Derby winners), but how many horses that could have been good have been sacrificed?
