please log in to view this image Juvenile Fillies Turf - Cairo Memories 10/1 A very open betting race this year with 7/1 the field in most lists, I dont think its quite as open as the betting suggests, and I think a few at the top of the market can be confidently passed on. The first thing that stands out for me is the fact that the race has been dominated by fillies who were running over a mile, every winner since the race started in 2008 had previously ran over a mile. Thats significant because 3 of the top 5 in the betting have never run that far, general fav Koala Princess and Bubble Rock have been running over 6f, and Hello You over 7f. Bubble Rock looked like they werent going fast enough for her in a strongly run Belmont sprint last time, I cant see her taking well to the mile at all and the fact that she is the supposed main chance of Brad Cox tells me he doesnt have anything like Aunt Pearl last year. Cox also has Turnerloose who got turned over off a contested lead last time but at 18/1 shes a far better proposition than Bubble Rock imo. I just think she would have won last time if she was the real deal and thats probably why they are throwing the sprinter at it. I expect her to reverse the form with Jessamine winner California Angel. The other big name of the US turf Chad Brown runs Haughty who won easily on debut but was disqualified and ran in another maiden at 3/10 after not drawing into the Jessamine. She could be anything but its a big step up from a public gallop to a G1 and not ideal as a prep imo, you need to be pretty special to jump straight in at the deep end and win. Browns more established filly Consumer Spending was far from impressive in a weak Laruel event at 2/5. Sharing won that race before winning this 2 years ago but in contrast to her display of high cruising speed and acceleration, Consumer Spending lacked tactical speed and its not a track you want to be shuffled back wide in a big field. Pizza Bianca is being given too much credit for her unlucky run in the Natalma, she briefly had to wait for the run but the reality is, Wild Beauty gave them all a head start in that race and was going away at the finish. Its difficult to see how Pizza Bianca is going to be good enough based on what we know about Wild Beauty on European form. She has a low draw to help but she should be 14s, not 7s. Mise En Scene I think you just put a line through, no excuses when outpaced in the Fillies Mile, Inspiral was only G1 horse in that race barring maybe Concert Hall at 10f+ next season, and the draw in 13 is going to leave her with a mountain to climb, shes a 25/1 shot. Cachet ran 3rd in that Fillies Mile, she benefited from being well placed off the slow pace and I dont think she really wants a strong run mile, kept decent company all season but it would be extremely disappointing were she to win being so exposed and after 6 defeats on the bounce, I couldnt have her. Sail By is worth a mention based purely on the Miss Grillo being such a strong pointer to this historically, I think she is better value than most at 20/1 but the impression was that she was well placed in a very slowly run race and nicked it from the 2 Chad Brown runners, neither of whom have been deemed worthy of running here. Cairo Memories was 16/1 first time out over course and distance, broke last and got messed around a bit with horses slowing in front into the turn, she then settled mid div about 6L off a slow pace before closing the gap with minimal urging and then quickening right away down the straight hands and heels. She was sharper away on 2nd start in the Surfer Girl over a mile at Santa Anita, was able to get a nice position in 4th on the inside behind a strong pace then did the exact same thing as on debut, exploded round the bend into the lead and pulled away down the straight before being eased down. She has shown she can quicken off a crawl and into a hot pace, which is basically the sign of a class horse who doesnt need things to fall right. She should get a lovely trip round the inside, explode on the turn in and shes going to take some catching down the short straight at Del Mar, she looks tailor-made for it really and I think she is a standout in the race. The trainer Robert Hess is not a big name these days, I think thats why this filly is such a big price, but he was top trainer at Del Mar in 91 and 92, and a first Breeders Cup winner there would be fitting. “Del Mar is my paradise,” Hess said Sunday. It is, after all, the place that provided him with his first winner (Palapiano, July 31, 1987), first training title in 1991 and first graded stakes winner (River Special, 1992 Del Mar Futurity). And as they have over the years, Desormeaux and Hess are hoping to make headlines again when they team up with Cairo Memories in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. “I've got gray hair and he's got a couple of wrinkles, but hopefully we're older, wiser and hopefully a little better,” Hess said. “But we have the A-team back together and we're looking forward to it.” “Cairo is splendid, a wonderful, gifted filly and just a pleasure to be around,” Hess said. “Unless the jock screws it up (with a wink toward Desormeaux), I think we'll get the money.” "They remain one of racing's most successful trainer-jockey combos, having enjoyed a magical run of some 500 victories at a nearly 35 percent average. For bettors, it's a winning formula that has evolved into Hess + Desormeaux = profit." You dont often hear a trainer of such experience who has never won a Breeders Cup race speak so confidently, I think they know they have a good one, and everything else about the race screams that the big boy dont have it this time. I like Turnerloose for the forecast.
BC Juvenile Dirt (8.5f): 11.50 GMT Nothing as detailed or sophisticated as RDT's contribution above, I'm afraid, but for what it's worth...... My man in San Diego (long-suffering husband of my great-niece) is convinced that Irad Ortiz Jr is the best American jockey since Willie Shoemaker. I've watched some of IOJ's rides in the past month or so, and I think he might be right, or at least very close to right. I'm not going to get into the niceties of fast dirt form, or the unfriendliness of the draw (10/12), so let me just say that I'll be backing Commandperformance at around 9-2 to to take advantage of the absence of Jack Christopher (who I suspect is probably the better horse). Apart from hoping to cop a few quid myself, I really hope this wins because I know that great-niece's husband has had a serious bet. He's very well regarded in the family for marrying a thoroughly unpleasant girl and taking her five and a half thousand miles from London, and he's more than earned the money.
I backed Commandperformance at 10s a while back, fancied him to reverse the form with Jack Christopher round 2 turns. A wide draw is generally preferable in dirt races btw, your hand is forced to use a lot early from a low draw to avoid eating a lot of dirt, for me stall 1 was the nail in Jack Christophers coffin, was the lay of the metting imo. The early races shows there is no pace bias which is also good news for him because he wont be challenging for the lead.
Think home hope Mise En Scene will not be disgraced in the juvenile fillies Each Way @ 11-1 with five places
The curtain comes down on a moderate European flat racing season with the annual trip across The Pond to the Breeders’ Cup, this year hosted by Del Mar. None of the top three of the European Classic generation make the trip. Just five line up for the first of the showpiece events, the Filly And Mare Sprint (7:05), where last year’s winner Gamine looks to extend her record of 9 wins from 10 starts for Bob Baffert; and her sternest challenge looks to come from the 3yo Bella Sofia. Gamine was the third 3yo running to win last year so can she see off the 3yo Grade 1 winner that has only been beaten once in 5 starts? European interest starts with the Turf Sprint (7:40). Glass Slippers won last year and returns but she has finished third on all three starts, in the Prix de l’Abbaye last time. She is joined by Haydock Sprint Cup winner Emaraaty Ana from the same barn, who was second in the Nunthorpe to Winter Power. Wesley Ward leads the home defence with last year’s Juvenile winner Golden Pal, who flopped in the Nunthorpe, and dirt performer Kimari, dropping back to five furlongs on turf here. George Arnold’s Gear Jockey seems to follow a pattern of win one lose one but last time was a win one. Dual course and distance winner LIEUTENANT DAN comes in on the back of winning a six and half furlong graded dirt race at Santa Anita (Chaos Theory and Charmaine’s Mia behind) and should give a good account here. There is no European involvement in the Dirt Mile (8:19) but a couple of Japanese raiders; however, it looks a bit nailed on for Todd Pletcher’s Life Is Good, a five times raced 3yo whose only defeat came in a Saratoga Grade 1. Both European and Japanese raiders in the Filly And Mare Turf (8:59) but none of them may go off favourite. On last year’s form, Love would be a short-priced favourite but she has been a serious let down this term, only winning the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, beating Audarya. James Fanshawe’s mare won this at Keeneland but has not won since and was probably too close to the pace in the Prix de l’Opera last time. Rougir won that race but the form looks suspect and her best previous effort was possibly finishing fourth in the Prix Rothschild in a blanket finish that Mother Earth won. It is hard to make a real case for the other British contenders Ocean Road and Queen Supreme. The Japanese mare Loves Only You looks to have been prepared for this with a pipe-opener in a Grade 2 after a lay off and she won the Queen Elizabeth II Cup in Hong Kong so travelling is not a problem. However, I think the home team will see off the challengers. My Sister Nat won last time on turf at Belmont but previously was third at Saratoga on dirt behind WAR LIKE GODDESS. William Mott’s 4yo also beat her the time before on turf at Saratoga. The main danger might be Going To Vegas, stepping up in trip but twice a track winner at 9 furlongs and winner most recently of a dirt Grade 1 (Dogtag third). Almost every year the Sprint (9:38) seems to contain a potential wonder horse that fails to deliver; and this year that appears to be Jackie’s Warrior, a very easy winner most recently. The biggest threat appears to be Dr. Schivel, chasing a sixth win on the bounce after winning a Grade 1 last time (C Z Rocket third) and a course and distance Grade 1 before that (C Z Rocket third). The Mile (10:20) represents one of the best chances for the overseas raiders. Mother Earth won the 1000 Guineas but her subsequent record only includes one win, the Prix Rothschild, and this may well be one race too far. I expect that Pearls Galore is here because she ran a close second in the Matron (Mother Earth third), just beaten by an outsider, but she has never won at this level. The only form to assess Japanese runner Vin De Garde on is his second to Lord North in the Dubai Turf but that looks a little short of the expected level here. Charlie Appleby is doubly represented and 2000 Guineas runner-up Master Of The Seas could not be confidently backed on either of his last two performances and has never won anywhere but Newmarket. William Buick has deserted him for Space Blues, winner of the Prix de la Forêt most recently, who has not run over a mile since 2019 and has won almost exclusively over 7 furlongs. So that leads me to the home defence. Chad Brown’s mare Blowout won a Keeneland Grade 1 last time with Aidan O’Brien’s Empress Josephine third and Charlie Appleby’s Althiqa fourth, so the merit of that form will be known to the raiders. Peter Miller’s previous course and distance winner MO FORZA looks to have been trained for this race. In two starts this term, he has beaten Smooth Like Strait and Hit The Road (second and third respectively both times) at this track and at Santa Anita. He also won here in 2020 and won the 2019 Hollywood Derby here too. Of the other locals, it is hard not to notice In Love, an easy winner of the Keeneland Turf Mile most recently. On dirt and featuring only a Japanese raider, the Distaff (11:00) looks a lot more competitive than the betting would suggest. Favourite Letruska seeks a sixth straight victory after beating Dunbar Road at Keeneland last time having had the same horse and Royal Flag behind at Saratoga. Shedaresthedevil won at this track most recently with As Time Goes By behind and is clearly a threat. Bob Baffert’s Private Mission has won four from five, the latest the Zenyatta Stakes from As Time Goes By, on which form line she has it to do with Shedaresthedevil. If I were going to have a bet against the short-priced favourite, I would go with Malathaat, who has contested three Grade 1 events, winning at Keeneland, second when favourite for the American Oaks at Saratoga and beating Clairiere to win the Alabama Stakes most recently. The penultimate event, the Turf (11:40) is a race that Europeans have dominated. It is very hard to look beyond last year’s winner Tarnawa, beaten by an outsider in the Arc and a short price to repeat in a race where much of the local defence simply do not look good enough and the same could be said for many of the raiders. The draw is the big negative. William Buick has chosen Yibir, who won at Belmont when last seen (Bolshoi Ballet behind) but was my ante post Derby bet and never lived up to that level. Old boy Walton Street gets the services of James Doyle and he has done well on his travels but the Canadian International takes little winning these days so he is hard to fancy even with a good draw. Japan was beaten by Rockemperor and Gufo in his two starts since campaigning in America and I cannot see a reason for him reversing that form; whilst Broome is a proper gambler’s horse as you may lose your money at the gate if he decides he cannot be bothered. The best chance for a British win is Roger Varian’s Teona, who won the Prix Vermeille but skipped the Arc because of the ground. If she handles the track from her poor draw, she should give a good account of herself. Finally, the Classic (12:40) looks quite an open affair although Brad Cox has the first two in the betting. Knicks Go won the Whitney at Saratoga last time but this will be his first attempt at ten furlongs. He was a well beaten fourth in the Saudi Cup in February but won the Dirt Mile at Keeneland in 2020. Bob Baffert’s Medina Spirit made all in the Kentucky Derby so there is guaranteed pace (Knicks Go also likes to be in the van), but he was beaten in the Preakness at Pimlico. He had Stilleto Boy behind when winning at this track and beat that rival, Express Train and Tripoli to win a Santa Anita Grade 1 most recently. Amazing that a Kentucky Derby winner is not favourite here. Belmont Stakes winner ESSENTIAL QUALITY beat Hot Rod Charlie that day and now brings the Godolphin colours to the richest race having warmed up with victory in the Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga at the end of August. He won the Juvenile from Hot Rod Charlie at Keeneland last year. Could that be the forecast again?
The Breeders’ Cup this year proved a perfect illustration of the impossibility of American racing for punters. I spent a couple of hours trawling through the form and managed three places (two of them ended up favourites) from four bets. It was obvious after the first quarter of a mile that Knicks Go was going to win the Classic because he was allowed an uncontested lead by the other two known front runners in the field. Had the three of them taken each other on that race would have ended like a couple of the earlier events with the horses up front going too fast and collapsing, leaving it to the horses coming from off the pace. How do American punters manage to find winners when races are quite literally decided at the gate? Ironic that Godolphin managed to win races with their European runners but their American based one – the one I backed – never had any chance of winning behind its stablemate. My American horse never got a mention in the Mile but the horse that it had beaten twice ran second to Space Blues, who looked the obvious winner on the home turn, being able to use his turn of foot off the strong pace. Delighted for the Japanese that they got their first two winners and that is surely going to result in a much stronger challenge in future years. Will the British Racing representative have managed to persuade anyone to bring their stars over to Royal Ascot 2022? It has the prestige but not the money available in America, Dubai or Saudi Arabia.
