Odds of 8/1 suggest that Peddlers Cross has roughly an 11% chance of winning the Arkle. I think his chance is significantly better than that so therefore the 8/1 represents value, even factoring in the risk of antepost punting.
Good debate, this. There is no real right or wrong either, its just that one school of thought might be more rewarding come March than the other, and even then it could be argued either way from a risk perspective. I think given the fact that Al Ferof might be destined for further, Peddlers at 8/1 with Ladbrokes is very fair. Of course we haven't seen him jump a fence but I'm pretty sure connections are satisfied with him switching to chasing. Just a question regarding Sprinter Sacre- I have watched each of his races in his career so far and have to say that, under pressure, he has looked far from convincing and has not seemed to have the change of gear. Is 2m the right trip for him? In fact I'd go as far as saying that if he actually settled better into his races this season, he should be a horse looking for further because he travels supremely well into the business end of his races. On a side note- when should we be looking to move into Episode 4? I don't want to rush anything out, although frighteningly we are edging closer towards November already, by which point the King George will really start to swing into focus! (What with the PP Gold Cup & Betfair Chase) Weapon's Amnesty was very high on my priority list and I had some stuff ready for him, but the sad news of his injury means I will go back to the drawing board for the next Episode.
I agree with you re Sprinter Sacre. He cruised into the Supreme looking the winner coming to the last but found very little as Al Ferof and Spirit Son battled past him. It is for this reason that i am against him as an Arkle challenger to Peddlers Cross. I just can't believe that Sprinter Scare will be able to outbattle Peddlers up the Cheltenham hill, and i am pretty sure that if he were to win the race that is exactly what he would be required to do. It's difficult to say whether he lacked a change of gear, because others were off the bridle and struggling earlier than he was. To me he looked like he just didn't power up the hill, which Al Ferof undoubtedly did. An interesting point though and other members' views would be welcomed. Perhaps a Paddy Power potential next TopClass? Mon Parrain? I am sure that he is one that would generate some strong opinions. I must say that i think the articles and the ensuing discussion are both excellent.
Zenyatta, I think Mon Parrain is a very exciting chaser. He was one of the first names on my list but when I was considering a discussion about him, I thought it might be hard to go on just 2 runs in his career so far. So I was thinking about waiting until after the Paddy Power Gold Cup, as that would really give us some clues about his potential, and would make for some really exciting discussion if he wins. What do you think? But I must say I'm very excited by him, his jumping last season was magnificent. Paul Nicholls won't give much away about his plans for MP, saying that MP will "tell them during the season".
The decision is entirely yours. I agree that there may well be potential for more debate after the Paddy Power, but, to play devil's advocate, the flip side of the coin is that if he were to disappoint (ie. not win in effect) then the opportunity or desire for debate may be lost. You have carried this idea excellently so i would not wish to interfere and trust you to make the right call. As for Mon Parrain his jumping was terrific. The way he popped round Aintree as a 5yo was exceptional. I must admit to counting my winnings as he cruised to the elbow, before slumping in stunned disbelief as he was beaten up the straight. Clearly a horse of huge potential nevertheless. And i would like to think that his current mark of 152 was at least workable.
At some point I hope you'll discuss the challengers to Hurricane Fly's crown as there were a couple of very smart Novice Hurdlers last season though I understand why the focus now is on Chasers. Maybe whether TFR can challenge Long Run? I'd be interested to hear what people think after a disappointing result LTO.
Absolutely George, there will be some hurdlers covered for sure. I think it is almost imperative that we cover the challengers to Hurricane, simply because he was a little fragile in the 2009 and 2010 seasons and didn't get the chance to come to Cheltenham. Here's to hoping he does make it though and gets the chance to prove himself as a proper champion.
I think it very important re Sprinter Sacre to bear in mind that what we have seen to date of him is far from the finished article. I can’t stress this enough but last season was a learning curve for him. The somewhat raw and green horse that we witnessed last term though has now been replaced by a much more developed and experienced animal. He was never, over hurdles, trained to the absolute limit nor raced with ‘the old gun fully to his head’ but this season he will be now that he will be going over fences. It is also vital to remember that where as other novices raced beyond Cheltenham to earn more money (for instance at Aintree and/or Punchestown) Sprinter Sacre didn't as (a) his hurdling education was complete and (b) the real prizes for him lie over fences. Re his distance he is an out and out 2 miler at the moment. His debut over hurdles was actually over 19.5 furlongs, at Ascot, and put simply he didn’t stay. Has never since been asked to run beyond the minimum trip. There were also extenuating circumstances for this initial defeat – hurdling bow and returned a sick horse but I would doubt if he would be asked to go beyond 2 miles for a long, and I do mean long, time. Like Master Minded though, with age, he may stay further in due course.
Chasing is not hurdling! Who would have backed Captain Chris to win the Arkle- based on his hurdles form alone? I also think people tend to be "blinkered" when it comes to certain horses- and disregard other horses and other factors. Sure, Peddler's Cross would seem an ideal candidate for the Arkle but, to my mind, so would Thousand Stars. Arguably he's the most improved National Hunt horse of the past two seasons and was only rated two pounds behind Peddler's Cross in last season's Champion Hurdle. Since then he's run a great race at Aintree over 2.5 miles- and won the French Champion Hurdle over 3.25 miles. Quite a range of distances and versatility of performance! I don't even know what campaign Willie Mullins has mapped out for him this season, but his price of 90/1 Betfair for The Arkle appeals far more than 6/1 Peddler's Cross.
Thousand Stars is likely to stay over hurdles this season and with his last success coming over 3m1½f at Auteuil in June, Mullins envisages him running over extended trips this season. "I think we are going to stay hurdling," Mullins told At The Races. "He stays really well and we could aim him towards the Stayers' [World] Hurdle this year."
Nass, thanks for the information. That would explain his silly price for The Arkle. He certainly would be a good each way shout for the World Hurdle. The only problem is that wonderful Big Bucks!
'He was never, over hurdles, trained to the absolute limit nor raced with ‘the old gun fully to his head’ but this season he will be now that he will be going over fences.' I can't believe for one second that the gun was not to his head in the Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham last year. It makes for an easy argument to say that he wasn't fully tried over hurdles but it's unlikely that any jockey, in the heat of battle in the first race at Cheltenham, would consciously decide not to push him to win. Now whether his trainer decided to push him during his hurdling career is another matter altogether.
No, you're not. There's absolutely no value to be had betting in a novice chase 5 months away. Peddlar's Cross will have a great chance if he get's there in one piece, and it's hard to see anything else being the festival target, but from this far ahead it looks like being a very competitive Arkle. I'd rather take 11/4 on the day than 7/1 so far ahead. He does look made for the race though.
Looks to be a very strong novice division this season but Peddlers Cross on his Champion Hurdle form and his runs before that deserves to be at the top of the list. Al Ferof & Sprinter Sacre deserve some respect too and Cue Card looked good on his first start last week! If those four line up - as well as a few others such as Menorah & Sam Winner then the Arkle could be a top race! The Jewson now being there too could dilute it a little though!
'I'd rather take 11/4 on the day than 7/1 so far ahead.' I'm with you there Archers, though I have to say that if I walk into the ring in 6 months and see 11/4 I'll consider it a gift from the gods. I think he'll have to fall and/or run poorly at least once in order to see 11/4, I think 5/4 is nearer his price, but as we've said there's alot that can happen over the next 6 months that prevenets him from turning up at all ....
Considering Paddy Powers odds at the minute: Peddlers Cross: 6/1 Sprinter Sacre: 10/1 Al Ferof: 12/1 Cue Card: 14/1 Given odds like these and such a strong potential line up I'd say 6/1 for any of them would be far too short to take now. I agree with the Sprinter Sacre camp - of the lot Sprinter Sacre looks to have excellent potential and 10/1 is more reasonable for a horse which has never chased than 6/1. That said, surely the best value is Cue Card. Al Ferof will, I think, not be in the race, and Cue Card is the only one to have chased, and won comfortably doing it! Regardless of which, I'll be leaving this market well alone until I've seen the lot of them chase (apart from some very minor ante-post dabbling straight after Cheltenham last season).
I can't agree with your first point at all. Both Peddlers Cross and Sprinter Sacre were good hurdlers but to illustrate: Would you rather take 6/1 about a 170 rated hurdler who finished 2nd in the Champion Hurdle? Or would you rather take 10/1 about a 149 rated hurdler who could only finish 3rd in the Supreme Novices? The best odds available for Peddlers Cross are 8/1 and 10/1 for Sprinter Sacre. Do you really think that there respective chances are 11.11% and 9.09%? If you ask me Peddlers represents far better value because he has 21lbs in hand on hurdles form. Obviously that could all change when they go chasing but it is a pretty comfortable cushion. I think it is Sprinter Sacre who is poor value because he is the one who needs to improve massively. To say that just because a price is bigger it represents better value is a flawed argument because the relative merits of their chances must be considered. At this stage i think the 2 percentage point difference between Peddlers Cross' and Sprinter Sacre's price is far too narrow a gap for two horse rated 21lbs differently over hurdles. I also reckon Cue Card will be campaigned over further and don't think he will be in the Arkle line-up come March.
Hurdling isn't chasing though. Also who is to say that Peddler's will go the Arkle route and not step up for the Jewson?