Off Topic Coronavirus

Warburton has tested positive apparently after feeling unwell, and is home isolating. Double vaccinated and feeling better already he says.

 

Had my flu jab on Saturday, busy drive through with the other oldies.

 

Warburton such a leader. Got Covid during the international break specifically so as not to disturb the team/ give it to anybody.

What a man ♥️

 

Well done & had mine few weeks ago & had flu symptoms over weekend Lol, having my booster jab next week

 

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You need proof of vaccination to go to any concert up here now! Downloaded my Covid Passport last week, gonna get a bit of a bashing over next few weeks

 

Covid tests: 43,000 people wrongly given negative PCR results after positive lateral flow due to lab blunder
A private laboratory in Wolverhampton has been suspended from NHS Test and Trace after the discovery of the error.
Why is this farce still called the NHS Test & Trace? Is it to get people to blame the NHS rather than the multi billion pound private companies that actually run it?

 

A four-month old company awarded a £119m contract without having to tender.

Cronyvirus.

 

https://t.co/yhFXRvuyxj?amp=1

Fact-check: is the NHS at risk of being overwhelmed by Covid?
20 October 2021, 11:45pm
ADRIAN DENNIS/AFP via Getty Images

Is it time for another lockdown? Matthew Taylor, the chief executive of the NHS Confederation, is urging ministers to implement sweeping 'plan B' winter measures, saying that immediate action is required to prevent the NHS 'stumbling into a crisis' arguing that 'we should try to achieve the kind of national mobilisation that we achieved in the first and second waves, where the public went out of their way to support and help the health service.'

Similar arguments were made to justify the first lockdown - with apocalyptic SAGE scenarios suggesting hospitals would be overwhelmed with a need for 138,000 ventilators (vs a supply of 6,800 ventilators) with a potential need for 72,000 ventilators by November. On this duff advice, the government ordered 30,000 ventilators - only to find the usage of ventilators fall sharply during the pandemic. The lockdown logic was faulty: it did not factor in that people had voluntarily hunkered down long before the 23 March order. Rather than fill up, hospitals were emptying fast with 43 per cent of inpatient beds and 42 per cent of ventilator units unused at the 12 April peak of the Covid crisis. The unneeded ventilators ended up being warehoused at an MoD site in Donnington.

The side-effect of lockdown on standard healthcare, meanwhile, was devastating with 7 million missed appointments and a collapse in cancer diagnoses.
NHS: 7m fewer appointments
Monthly referrals for non-emergency, consultant-led treatment2016 Aug1,532,416Monthly referrals for non-emergency, consultant-led treatment2016 Aug1,532,416201620172018201920202021500k1m1.5m
Monthly referrals for non-emergency, consultant-led treatment
Pre-pandemic average
Seven million fewer referrals for treatment than expected from pre-pandemic average
Seven million fewer referrals for treatment than expected from pre-pandemic average

Figures for England only, to July 2021. Monthly referrals from NHS; pre-pandemic average is for March 2019–February 2020; average and missed treatments calculated by The Spectator
Chart: The Spectator (JRygQ) Source: NHS Consultant-led Referral to Treatment Waiting Times (numbers of referrals for treatment) / Spectator (average, gap) Get the data Created with Datawrapper






But last year, it was very hard to get hold of health data. Now, it’s far easier: so we can test Taylor’s case.

First, let's look at Covid cases – they are certainly on the rise. But the Spectator’s data hub, updated daily, shows hospital numbers (blue line, below) are pretty stable at about 5 per cent of NHS bed capacity and about a quarter of what they were during the January peak. On New Year's Eve in England there were 49,510 Covid cases which resulted in 22,728 people in hospital; yesterday there were 36,712 Covid cases but yesterday there were 6,099 people in hospital.







And let’s look at that red line – cases – in a bit more detail. The reason for the massive drop in hospitalisations is due to the vaccinations of the elderly, who are now much less likely to be hospitalised with Covid. Instead, it is the under-20s – a group which was one of the last to receive its vaccinations – who now number the most Covid cases by age group in England.





Rather than being inundated, there are more empty beds in the NHS then there are patients with Covid. And even the latter figure contains patients who are in hospital for reasons other than Covid but either happen to have (or acquired) the virus. Back in January, one in three occupied NHS beds was taken up by a patient with Covid; now the figure is closer to one in twenty.











And yes, of course, this can change. Covid has not lost its capacity to surprise us. We are soon expecting SAGE to produce its latest forecasts, which will doubtless have a scenario showing bleak outcomes for the NHS. But we should set this against Sage’s track record. Yet again daily admissions are currently below even SAGE's most optimistic scenario, according to modelling drawn up less than six weeks ago.





Before the end of the last lockdown, SAGE also released a bunch of scenarios about what would happen to hospital numbers – and all of them came in higher than the actual. Yet another example of the negativity bias programmed into SAGE.







Even last year, winter deaths were (mercifully) below all four models drawn up for SAGE. The Times today reports warnings from SAGE that its experts are 'finding it difficult to predict what will happen next, given huge uncertainties about the numbers yet to be vaccinated, how fast immunity wanes and how people will behave over the winter.'





With even Sage is admitting that it’s not so sage, perhaps the sensible thing to do is keep an eye on the data – which you can do daily on The Spectator’s data hub – and see if the situation starts to change. Because as things stand, there is absolutely nothing in NHS caseload or wider figures to warrant a return to the draconian measures so controversially used in previous waves.

 

Used my "Covid Passport" last night for the first time. Was quite worried by the length of the queue when we got to the venue, but everyone had their phones ready to be scanned and it all went quite quick and smooth - certainly didn't feel like my civil rights had been rammed up my arse.......

Capacity at Barrowlands is 1900, a few audience members were wearing masks, but generally it was mask free until we all left and I'd reckon at least 60% of folk put their masks on as we trundled down the stairs.

 

Why did people put their masks on when exiting a building that they'd shared, maskless, with 1899 others Steels? Seems a bit arse-about-face

 

Bold call from the actual Health Secretary to declare he doesn’t have a Plan B. Good thing Covid got done.

 

Should have to prove you’re vaccinated to get into any venue, nightclub, bar or restaurant. I also think there should be fines if not wearing a mask on the tube. Government are being way too soft.

 

He does have a plan B but doesn’t want to implement it yet

 

Fair enough. The wait and see approach didn’t work terribly well in the past but if we all stay positive it’ll probably be fine.

 

My feelings were you were standing about with your back to others whilst watching the gig, but as you all get squashed up leaving the venue, with people coming from all directions, you had a far greater chance of a face-to-face encounter...