Monday's Meetings Leicester Flat 8 Races 1:00-4:50p.m. Listowel N/H 8 Races 1:40-5:25p.m. Hamilton Flat 8 Races 1:45-5:35p.m. Warwick N/H 6 Races 1:50-4:45p.m. Fairyhouse Flat 8 Races 2:55-6:45p.m. Wolverhampton(E) A/W 7 Races 5:30-8:30p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Morning 8.00 Wolverhampton-Rouge Et Noir Each Way @ 11-2 [888 Bet] Though form figures going in the wrong direction I think she is a filly well capable of winning races
Warwick 1.50 Van Meegeren 2.25 Pencreek nap 3.00 Templehills 3.35 Seaborough nb 4.10 Three Bullet Gate 4.45 Winter Getaway At Hamilton a Paul Mulrennan treble seems likely today. Good luck whatever you back
The 4.37 at Fairyhouse sees the well experienced maiden Ultramarine favourite at about 2/1. Yet to break his duck in seven attempts, he has been very highly tried at times, so perhaps can be forgiven for not getting off the mark yet. Joseph O'Brien's son of Zoffany ran in the Group 1 National Stakes last time out and was not disgraced in 4th place at 100/1. That represented a career best on RPR's behind Native Trail but I am a bit sceptical about that type of race, when rank outsiders seem to get closer to classy horses than they should have done on previous form. Ger Lyons runs Straight Talking and he is one for one, surely there could be big improvement to come. I do not understand the Racing Post figures here. Because Straight Talking is rated 89, while Ultramarine's best RPR is 106. They are off level weights, yet the adjusted RPR for each colt shows that there is only 4 lbs between them, with the figures 110 to 106 in Ultramarine's favour. WTF is that about? There must be more than 4 lbs between them on the form to date. Straight Answer should progress and although there is ground to make up with the Fav I prefer the once raced winner profile to the seven attempts maiden. The odds are not a lot better than the Fav though, so I delved deeper. In the end I took a chance with Lopes Gold. The Harrington inmate has had two second places and was favourite for the latter of those contests. That was a while back and she returns after a lengthy absence, which might suggest something was amiss. She returns at a time when the stable have really taken off and although her defeat behind Prettiest didn't pan out in terms of the winner going on, the third filly that day was Agartha, who landed two Group races and was runner up in the Group 1 Moyglare. Obviously Agartha was a work in progress then and Lopes Gold is unlikely to be in her league at the moment, it is still encouraging to see a filly who has rubbed shoulders with some class and she is a decent price today. 4.37 Fairyhouse Lopes Gold 12/1
Betting told the story with Lopes Gold on the drift. She broke well and matched the pace at the front for a fair way but she probably paid for trying to go with Straight Answer and she got very tired in the closing stages. Meanwhile Straight Answer was hurtling clear at the front for an impressive success. The Lyons horse hit the line with 5 and a half length to spare. Ultramarine was woeful and I had identified him as a bad favourite. He drifted out while Straight Answer was the solid one in the betting. I think that today;s tun clearly showed that Ultramarine was falsely raised from 100 to 106 after his National Stakes run. A classic case of overrating an effort because it was a Group 1 contest and I would think Ultramarine has run to nearer 90 today. This was a seriously good show from Straight Answer and I would be backing him for the Commonwealth Cup if he were quoted. Much was made of Wings Of War scrambling home at the weekend. I reckon Straight Answer would tear him a new one. Trainer Logic Number 261:- Jessica Harrington stated that Lopes Gold was purposely kept off the racecourse from May to September in order to wait for soft ground. Up pops the filly in September to run on, you've guessed it, good to firm Trainer Logic, making the game fun to follow for everyone.
