Saturday 18th - Ayr Gold & Silver Cups

A lot of the focus on Saturday, and certainly from a betting perspective, will be on the pair of ultra competitive 6f handicaps run at Ayr. Monikered, in order of importance, the Gold and Silver Cups.

It's probably every punters dream to combine the winners of these races in a double as the rewards will, always, be extremely lucrative - the only problem is, though, it's very, very, and I do mean very, very, difficult. Last term the winning double would have paid 86/1 and in 2019 a whopping 376/1.

A few stats / trends re the races are as follows. In the Ayr Gold Cup the winning most trainer, in recent times, is Kevin Ryan with 4 successes since 2007. In the past 25 years only 4 horses carried more than 9 stone 5 lbs to victory. 12 out of the last 13 winners had a previous run within the past 35 days. Since 2006 no winner has been drawn lower than 8 when the race run at Ayr (2017 renewal run at Haydock). In the last 12 years horses whose last race was at Group 2 or 3 level are 0/25. In the last 12 years those whose last race was at Listed class are 0/42. In the past 12 years horses aged 7+ are 0/47. Richard Fahey 1/35 in the past 10 years.

Moving on to the Silver Cup. The last 2 winners both had an official rating of 88. No winner drawn in stall 9-19, that's 11 stalls in total, in the last 9 runnings (no race 2017). In the last nine renewals 3YOs are 1/37. In the past 10 years Richard Fahey is 1/33 and David O'Meara 0/14.

And it should be noted that we will get a sneak preview, of what is too come, and maybe a few clues as well (formlines, effect of the draw, etc.) later today as the Ayr Gold Cup and Ayr Silver Cup's poor relation the Bronze Cup (I wonder how long it took the Executive to think up that title?!?) is run.

Anyway, enough babbling, here are my predictions re the 2 races:

Gold - Ostilio (each-way)
Silver - Magical Spirit

Ostilio has a woeful looking formline but he runs tomorrow off just 96 (this mark peaked as high as 115 in the past). His run in the Beverley Bullet last time indicated that he still possesses a lot of talent and over a furlong further, in the Ayr Gold Cup, I can see him blowing that Listed stat to pieces. Magical Spirit won the Silver Cup with ridiculous ease last term and I'd take him to do the same tomorrow. His pair of short heads defeat by Tis Marvellous, last time, now looks very, very hot form indeed (Tis Marvellous followed this up by winning a Listed race by 3.75 lengths). A perch of 94 looks very appealing re him. This double, incidentally, right now pays 164/1.

What are your opinions and tips for either, or both, of these races???

 

I have had a Snazzy Jazzy 33/1 e/w bet for over a month, I was thinking of betting him some more but suddenly one day his odds went down at all the bookies inexplicably. The answer was that a tipster from Sportinglife had advised him. He is now 25/1 at bet365 and others bookies 16-20. If he goes a bit higher tomorrow I'll bet on him again.

 

I have had Great Ambassador in mind for the Ayr Gold cup since the day I backed him for the Stewards Cup. He seemed to have improved since joining Ed Walker and I felt he had a shout in the Goodwood cavalry charge. He ran a cracker in 3rd place and then went on to win his next race.

I held fire on backing him for the Ayr Gold Cup in case they took him in another direction and approaching his most recent race I left betting on the Ayr race, figuring that he wouldn't shorten much from 8/1 if he won the 4 runner affair he was contesting. It was a nice, straightforward, win for Great Ambassador and I was right that his odds wouldn't change much, as he was cut from 8/1 to 7/1. That's not a big price but he has a touch of class and is built to carry the 9st 9lbs he is shouldered with. William Buick is on board, so that must be a positive.

Drawn in Trap 1 may not be ideal but he has old foe Commanche Falls in box 2 for company and I feel both horses will be involved. 5/1 now, I had envisaged that Great Ambassador could start as low as 4/1, being a horse with just 13 career starts, who is only now finding his identity. He must be in the category of a horse who could be contesting Listed and perhaps Group 3 sprints in the future.

3.40 Ayr Saturday Great Ambassador 7/1 ante-post.

Great Ambassador/Commanche Falls RF

 

Horses drawn 4,8,1,7 have finished 1st 2nd 4th 5th in the Bronze Cup today.

I am not sure if that really translates to the following day's Silver and Gold Cups in past years but for now I wouldn't be concerned with mine being drawn 1 and 2 in the Gold Cup.

Cavalry Charge or not, Call Me Ginger won today's race as 4/1 Favourite.

 

At bigger prices in the Gold Cup Volatile Analyst caught my eye. The Keith Dalgleish horse has the look of one campaigned over longer trips to perhaps get a mark for dropping back to 6F. Last time he was at Ayr, he travelled well but seemed to run put of petrol over the mile trip.

Volatile Analyst has won his other two races at Ayr, albeit at very short odds on one of those occasions and from box 10 he is racing not that far away from the first two in the betting for the Gold Cup.

I used to work as a Chemical Analyst and am most certainly Volatile, so he appealed to me for that reason as well. Had to sacrifice two places to get better odds, so it was:-

3.40 Ayr Saturday Volatile Analyst 40/1 EW 1,2,3,4,5 places

Good luck with wherever your own pens land.

 

Bickerstaffe 12/1 & Lord Rapscallion 25/1 both 6 places in the Silver
Gulliver 14/1 & Above 50/1 both 7 places in the Gold

Ew singles and doubles

 

Silver Cup
Bergerac 14/1 e/w six places PP and betfair, bet365 five

Gold Cup
Snazzy Jazzy 40/1 e/w WH seven places, others 33/1 also seven and six places

 

Snazzy Jazzy was also headline tipped in 'The Weekender' on Wednesday.

I see that Ostilio has come down from 14/1 to 11/1 over the course of the last 24 hours but in the Gold Cup the money has really come for the Ed Walker pair as well as, at a much bigger price, the Balding runner Fivethousandtoone.

 

I notice that the Tipster Andy Holding on Oddschecker has put up Great Ambassador EACH WAY

Wow, that's very daring advising each-way on a horse that is 7/2.

 

With seven places he has gone on to secure

 

At Gowran Park I thought Purple Dawn would go close. 2nd over 7F last time, he looked ready for a mile and being by Belardo you might think yielding ground should help. 3/1 seemed fair.

In the Mill Reef I backed Dhabab earlier in the week but market confidence seems muted. I thought his last outing was a smart effort and dropped back to 6F he should have a good shout.

2.10 Gowran Park Purple Dawn 3/1
4.00 Newbury Dhabab 11/4

Two singles and a double.

 

In the Ayr Gold Cup I am on Great Ambassador at 7/1, It's not a huge price but I felt he was start shorter on the day and he is half those odds now.

I went with Commanche Falls for the RF, as the pair were 1st and 3rd in the Stewards Cup. At bigger odds I did Volatile Analyst EW at 40/1

In the Silver Cup I liked the profile of Strike Red and at 22/1 Each-Way six places I felt he may be involved. In the spirit of Ant and Dec's Red Or Black I put Blackrod in for a forecast.

I noticed a potential Cycling double with Boardman and Pendleton in the Silver and Gold Cups respectively.

 

Commanche Falls for Ayr Gold Cup. No interest in the other one

A separate thread for these two cavalry charge lottery races? Strange.

 

I thought Great Ambassador was coming to win the Ayr Gold Cup but Bielsa summoned an incredible burst and was flying like Dancing Brave to make a mockery of his mark. High draw numbers dominated with all bar the Fav drawn higher than 15. That looked the race of Bielsa's life and he is bound to be thumped by the handicapper now.

Great Ambassador was in behind early and perhaps working harder than ideal to get a good position. Having got himself in a position to strike, I felt he was travelling like a winner but he had no answer to Bielsa sweeping on the other side of the track. It had been a while since the Ryan horse obliged but he was by no means unbacked at 15/2, having been 25/1 when 9th in last year's race. You have to wonder about people backing a horse at 3/1 for an Ayr Gold Cup Cup and I had only just decided to play him at 7/1 earlier. However, it seems the more that a horse is backed, the more some punters want to be on it. "Follow the money" they say. In this instance I assume the people have followed it down the drain.

Pretty crappy day for me. Rishes Baar was badly outpaced before staying on well into 5th in the Firth Of Clyde. I had noted that the fillies race has a habit of big priced winners popping up and Nazanin did just that at 16/1.

Dhabab was uneasy and he looked short of toe today, staying on for a never nearer 4th. Annoyingly it was Wings Of War, whom I had backed last time, who narrowly prevailed.

Talking of my former picks winning, Solid Stone went in at 12/1, with former "Next big thing" Al Aasy diappointing as 4/6 Fav. The Haggas horse earned rave reviews in May but his 120 Rating looks set for a rewind now. The trainer had warned that he might be rusty but the only comfort fans could take was the Haggas comment that he feels the horse wants soft ground.

Hurricane Ivor was a winner for me last week but I left the race he was in alone today. Khaadem had a rare going day last time and I felt he was worth taking on today, while Tis Marvellous had won well last time but seemed to me to benefit from Judical and Dakota Gold hating the fast ground at Beverley that day. In the end I should have stayed with Hurricane Ivor, as he cemented his improvement for William Haggas with a personal best today. Khaadem was hopeless and Tis Marvellous only 3rd after being unable to fight off the closing runners on the good ground the way he had repelled them on the quick surface last time.

So 2nd and 7th in the Gold Cup and 7th and 3rd in the Silver Cup but no cigar.

Tricky day's racing overall and well done if you found winners.

 

K ryan won them both didn't he ?

 

Tim Easterby won the Silver mate

 

ah right , my error !

 

The Ayr double (Gold and Silver Cups) then, this year, paid 220/1.

Both those draw stats mentioned in the opening post were maintained this time around then and after re-reading what I wrote about horses running in the Gold Cup after previously contesting Group 2, 3 or Listed affairs I feel something of a twerp for putting up Ostilio! With him though I do get the impression that he is going to pop up and win something, one day, at a huge price. Probobly the race after I have decided enough is enough and ditched the old boy!