Prix de l Arc de Triomphe, Sunday 3rd October 2021

Reading plans for the Gosden team the ante post market for the Arc could soon take a bit of a shake up. If 20 go to post this season there could be a lot of Ballydoyle also-rans or moderate horses from the home team.

9/4 Snowfall
9/2 Adayar
6/1 Tarnawa
8/1 Hurricane Lane
12/1 Mishriff, St Mark’s Basilica, Wonderful Tonight
16/1 Chrono Genesis
20/1 Love
25/1 Raabihah
33/1 Kemari, Lei Papale, Loves Only You, Mare Australis

It has already been announced that Hurricane Lane will be the sole representative of Godolphin in the St Leger, but will he then be going on to attempt the double that has never been done?

St Mark’s Basilica and Tarnawa are scheduled to clash in the Irish Champion Stakes but will the three year old colt step up to the mile and a half or go to Champions’ Day for the Champion Stakes?

Mishriff may be a no-show as Gosden has stated that he will not run in September and he is going to speak to the owner about plans for October and November. So is Mishriff going to the Champion Stakes and then the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Del Mar? He ruled out the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Love has been disappointing this term to date, there is no reason to believe that she will reverse form with Adayar from Ascot; and I do not think that she would show up in Paris if it comes up soft (as it frequently does).

Whilst the favourite Snowfall gets all the allowances, I do not think that this season’s middle distance three year old fillies are anything special (the runner up in the Yorkshire Oaks was Group 3 performer Albaflora), so I would take Adayar to beat her as his form is stronger and he is at least a fillies’ allowance better than her.

Jean Claude Rouget’s Raabihah is shortest priced of the home team and I expect her to go to the Prix Vermeille (was second to Tarnawa last year) but her career best performance was finishing fifth in last year’s Arc, won by her stablemate Sottsass.

 

The Irish Champion Stakes and the St Leger did not have a great impact on the Arc betting with odds on favourite Hurricane Lane duly obliging on Town Moor and the Aga Khan’s main Arc hope Tarnawa a close second at Leopardstown. Interviewed straight after the St Leger, trainer Charlie Appleby did not rule his winner out of a trip to Paris and I would have to say that given his course form he really should run if he is over his Town Moor exertions in three weeks.

Sunday’s Arc Trials at Longchamp – all over the Arc course and distance – may leave us with pretty much the final line-up betting wise.

5/2 Snowfall
9/2 Adayar (misses intended Arc prep race with setback)
5/1 Tarnawa
7/1 Hurricane Lane (will he run?)
12/1 St Mark’s Basilica (will he run?)
12/1 Mishriff (will he run?)
14/1 Chrono Genesis
20/1 Joan Of Arc
25/1 Raabihah (not in the Prix Vermeille), Love (will she run?)
33/1 Alenquer, Kemari, Pyledriver, Lei Papale, Mare Australis, Mohaafeth, Loves Only You

 

Quite happy with my Raabihah 40/1 e/w bet after his win in the Group 2 Deauville three weeks ago and no run in the Prix de Vermeille I think it's a good move.

 

Agreed. I hope that they let Hurricane Lane take his chance. He is a proven course and distance winner and he can be placed anywhere in the race. Either he or Adayar could be Frankel’s first Arc winner.

As I have backed Tarnawa ante post, I was happy enough with her prep-race chasing home arguably the best three year old colt. Will they try St Mark’s Basilica over twelve?

I was not surprised that Snowfall got turned over as I did not think that this year’s middle distance three year old fillies were much good but I went with the wrong one (her stablemate) to turn her over. The Yorkshire Oaks form, where she was chased home by a Group 3 horse, pretty much told us that she is only a 120-rated performer at best and Charlie Appleby has two colts rated above her.

 

Bad luck for the mare and for me, Raabihah draw 15.

2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe draw:

1 – Mojo Star
2 – Hurricane Lane
3 – Tarnawa
4 – Love
5 – Deep Bond
6 – Bubble Gift
7 – Broome
8 – Alenquer
9 – Snowfall
10 – Sealiway
11 – Adayar
12 – Torquator Tasso
13 – Baby Rider
14 - Chrono Genesis
15 - Raabihah

 

Snowfall for me. Good luck with yours

 

There are 15 declared for Sunday’s hundredth running of the Arc with Adayar and Snowfall both supplemented as expected but Teona an absentee because of the expected soft ground. The going at Auteuil (just across the Bois de Boulogne from Longchamp) is reported as very soft on Thursday (4.1 on penetrometer) whilst it is soft (3.5) at Longchamp for Saturday and rain is forecast. Will Love be a late absentee?

I have listed the field here in draw order:

1. Mojo Star (R. Hannon, Rossa Ryan)
2. Hurricane Lane (C. Appleby, James Doyle)
3. Tarnawa (D. Weld, Christophe Soumillon)
4. Love (A. O’Brien, TBA)
5. Deep Bond (R. Okubo, Mickael Barzalona)
6. Bubble Gift (M. Delzangles, Gerald Mosse)
7. Broome (A. O’Brien, TBA)
8. Alenquer (W. Haggas, Tom Marquand)
9. Snowfall (A. O’Brien, TBA)
10. Sealiway (C. Rossi, Franck Blondel)
11. Adayar (C. Appleby, William Buick)
12. Torquator Tasso (M. Weiss, Rene Piechulek)
13. Baby Rider (P. Bary, Ioritz Mendizabal)
14. Chrono Genesis (T. Saito, Oisin Murphy)
15. Raabihah (J-C. Rouget, Cristian Demuro)

So the first two in the St Leger drawn inside and the chief Japanese raider out wide.

Has William Buick got the wrong one? Choice of two Classic winners so Derby over St Leger seems a no-brainer.

Apologies, @Pilgrim, just seen that you posted the same thing at lunchtime!

 

Sporting e/w for me will be the second-favoured Japanese runner Deep Bond. Appears to be a thorough stayer who should be suited by the underfoot conditions. Amazingly, crack French jockey, Mickael Barzalona, did not have a ride in the Arc, and was promptly snapped-up by the horse's Japanese connections. So, absolutely no problem with Deep Bond's jockey!

 

Yes, do agree, he would be the first dual Leger/Arc winner, I believe? Even the great Nijinsky could not do that. I had just arrived in Cotonou, Dahomey, (now called Benin), and I had my ear pinned to a tiny radio. Took me an age before I found out who actually won it, but I knew it was not Nijinsky. Was pretty sad, must admit.

(My bets are of course peanuts nowadays, sometimes a walnut, and sometimes even a macadamia from Queensland!)

 

Love a non runner. Apparently has a temperature

 

The biggest problem with this year’s Arc could turn out to be the ground. There is no obvious pacesetter in the field so there is a good probability that it will be run like a French race, a married man’s gallop with a sprint in the straight, unless someone has plans to go off in front. If only Mark Johnston had a runner. Normal wisdom is that high draws are bad news but there is not a maximum field and if they do not go hell for leather from the gate to try and get rails positions, a high draw may not be totally catastrophic. The official going according to France Galop is a penetrometer reading of 4.2 “collant” (sticky) and there is rain in the forecast.

Raabihah has the disadvantage of the widest draw but what really puts me off is that she won the Prix de Pomone last time and the second and third were beaten on Saturday’s undercard; however, she still looks the best chance of a home win. Next to her is the Japanese star Chrono Genesis who is still something of an unknown. It is always impossible to assess the Japanese form but their runners here are generally forsaking big prize money at home to come to Europe. She was beaten by Mishriff in the Dubai Sheema and the five year old grey daughter of Arc winner Bago has the same age/sex statistic against her as Tarnawa. The last big upset was when Japanese Triple Crown winner Orfevre looked all over the winner in 2012 but was beaten by Solemia. Orfevre ran for the same connections, won the Prix Foy twice and was runner up twice, behind Treve in 2013.

It is very hard to make a case for Baby Rider (well beaten in the Grand Prix de Paris by Hurricane Lane) or Torquator Tasso (won the Grosser Preis von Baden but was also runner-up to Sir Mark Prescott’s Alpinista in the Grosser Preis von Berlin) in 13 and 12 but the Derby winner Adayar in 11 is the top rated horse in the race. The two problems with the Derby hero is that no explanation has been given for his absence from the Prix Niel so he has not run for two months and will this real test of stamina work against him. Appleby thought he was their St Leger horse before his surprise victory at Epsom.

There does not appear to be any reason to think that Sealiway is good enough (was runner-up to St Mark’s Basilica in the Prix du Jockey Club when last seen) but next to him in 9 is the Oaks winner Snowfall. Whilst she will be remembered for her record winning margin, the middle distance three year old fillies this year are much of a muchness and, even with the fillies’ allowance, she is not good enough to beat the Godolphin three year old colts.

The dark horse of the race is the William Haggas trained Alenquer but all he has going for him is an early season formline with the Derby winner and his trainer’s purple patch of form. His price has been shortening in the market but he was behind Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Paris and the York form line through Mishriff favours Adayar over him. The second Ballydoyle contender, Broome, has hardly been a revelation and does not appear to have progressed much on his three year old career. It is difficult to make a case for the remaining French runner Bubble Gift in 6 (behind Baby Rider in the Grand Prix de Paris, both well beaten) whilst the second Japanese runner Deep Bond has the best of the draw, should be okay on the ground and beat Broome when winning the Prix Foy over course and distance.

Drawn in 3, the Aga Khan’s runner Tarnawa is mostly hampered by statistics, being a five year old mare. In fairness the statistics are a little misleading as hardly any five year old mares contest the race but the two most recently beaten ones – Enable and Treve – linger in the memory as they sought hat-tricks; and the only five year old mare to win was Corrida in 1937. That said, Tarnawa should have no problem with the ground, is a course and distance winner and was controversially beaten by arguably the best horse in Europe in her warm up race. The two inside boxes belong to the first two in the St Leger. No horse has ever completed the double but the three week gap this year gives Hurricane Lane an excellent chance of creating history. What tactics are adopted by Derby and St Leger runner-up Mojo Star will be interesting. There must be a good chance that he ends up runner-up again, having been beaten by both the Godolphin colts he may follow one of them home.

Although I have my ante post interest in the race on TARNAWA, if she does not win I hope that Hurricane Lane makes history.

 

What an amazing family the Sea the Stars/ Galileo/ Kings Best family is. Our Arc winner's 3rd dam is a half-sister to Urban Sea (dam of Galileo and Sea the Stars) and the 4th dam is Allegretta the dam of Kings Best.
The winner was topped off with that tough German stallion Alderflug who died as a 17yo this year.

 

Sorry mate

 

Danke sehr, mein Oberst .

 

Na, da schau her!