Wednesday's Meetings Lingfield Flat 7 Races 1:00-4:30p.m. Uttoxeter N/H 8 Races 1:20-5:20p.m. Catterick Flat 6 Races 2:20-5:10p.m. Killarney(E) Flat 8 Races 4:25-7:55p.m. Yarmouth(E) Flat 8 Races 5:00-8:35p.m. Wolverhampton(E) A/W 8 Races 5:15-8:45p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Place a bet in the Virtual Betting shop here Good Luck
I felt like taking on a shortie at Yarmouth in the 5.30 race. In some ways Sassy Rascal looks like a good thing as a once raced daughter of Mehmas representing George Boughey. The odds are not great at 5/4 though, so who could upset the party? The next two in the betting are both experienced enough to have earned official ratings but those ratings do not set an impassable standard on 79 and 76. Poderoso is the higher rated of them and the son of Kodiac was out of his depth last time behind Chipotle in Listed company at Royal Ascot, where he was well down the field as a 125/1 outsider. I am not sure why owners aim horses at races like that but perhaps it is just trying to live the dream. He is well back in class now but he was beaten favourite the twice before that, no doubt based on a 3rd place in Berkshire Shadow's maiden win and the winner then going on to land the Coventry. The two horses have gone in very different directions though and Poderoso will be having his 5th start today. Bailey's Liberty has had three starts for Mark Johnston and was well clear of the third when runner up at Ripon last time. That race was a fair improvement on her first two starts and the fast ground should suit. Her chance is well noted with the odds of 5/2 though and I can't say I find Mark Johnston's stable very reliable on when or when not they are likely to win. I took a fly with George Margarson's Ideal Guest as an outsider. A son of Shalaa, he is a 45,000 Guineas yearling who then cost 67,000 Guineas as a 2YO. That's a reasonable sort of investment for this stable and although they are not running many just now they are 2 from 4 this past fortnight for a 50% strike rate. It's a total guess as to the horse's ability but it looks a winnable starting point if he has the talent you would hope the price tag is buying. The Fav will probably hose up but hey ho. 5.30 Yarmouth Ideal Guest 18/1
MY SON JOHN 28/1 Uttoxeter 5:20 The form of his most recent run when a number of these were involved, including the favourite, suggests this one could be a bit of value.
Morning all, Not looked at the racing yet, but wanted to ask the esteemed membership a question What would you say was a good ROI for betting over a year? I am closely monitoring my betting and I can't figure out what figure I should be benchmarking against. I am thinking that anything above 5% over a year would be impressive... Views?
Uttoxeter 2.30 Le Pogues Storm More experienced over fences than most of these. Last run in 4th over hurdles at Newton Abbot wasn't without promise. Career low mark today. Up in trip to 3 m could suit this winner of a point to point maiden. Alastair Ralph has a nice each way record in handicap chases at Uttoxeter over the last 5 seasons: runs 12 wins 3 placed 4 First run today after a wind surgery. Yard amongst the winners recently and Uttoxeter is the track where jockey Robbie Dunne has won most of his rides. A bit of market support can be seen for the horse at the moment.
Anything that is not a loss is fine. 5% is pretty good and it's extraordinary when you compare it to what the bank gives you for having the money there.
I'd settle for 4%, but we might need to define our terms a bit more closely. I would mean a simple 12-month 4% return (i.e. 'profit') on total stakes. If you're going to factor in overheads like expenses of going racing, costs of specialist software, price of gifts to placate deserted/angry wives, outlay on alcohol to celebrate decent wins, probably more like 7.5%. Obviously, I'm assuming here that your personal charm won't cover the angry wife thing.
We can drop the alcohol percentage, but probably need to raise the going racing. Fortunately my wife doesn't get angry. Just disappointed!!
Morning Neil Callan finishes his 10 year stint in Hong Kong today, and could go out on a winner 2.15-Golden Spectrum Each Way @ 9-2 [Unibet]
A rare treat on a Wednesday with Irish Derby winner Hurricane Lane clashing with something of a surprise package in Alenquer, who had the Epsom Derby winner behind in the Sandown Classic trial and then followed up in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot. The pair meet in the Grand Prix De Paris at Longchamp and the Godophin horse is a warmish favourite at 11/8. Hurricane Lane didn't seem suited by Epsom, when he finished third and losing two shoes would not have helped. I thought he was a sound each-way shout for the Irish version at 5/1 but got caught up in the feeling that High Definition would come forward enough to reverse the Dante form between the two. In the end, High Definition never went a tap and it was a run that the trainer felt had something to do with the horse stumbling and nearly coming down after 3F, with the jockey saying the horse was knocked out of rhythm and never regained it during the race. Whatever the reason, High Definition ran 36 lbs below his previous run behind Hurricane Lane and it was left to a cat and mouse game between the Appleby horse and Lone Eagle, who went off like a mouse trying to get a head start on the cat but ultimately was worn down and caught. That was a performance that had connections thinking about the St Leger, while Epsom hero Adayar would head to the King George QE II before perhaps heading to the Arc longer term. Alenquer was one that got away from me in the Sandown Trial when I mused that I didn't think he should be the outsider in the field but in the end I plumped for Belloccio, who was disappointing in 5th place. That turned out to be one of the races of the season, with Belloccio one of the few not to win since. Adayar won the Derby and Lone Eagle the Cocked Hat before giving Hurricane Lane a fright at the Curragh. Six winners, including Yibir recently have come from the Sandown race. I went against Alenquer at Royal Ascot in search of better odds and got a good run from Tasman Bay, who saw most of them off but could not repel the run of the Haggas colt. I felt Tasman Bay was one paced and not a great yardstick and Gear Up, who was fifth, was mightily disappointing yet again next time out. I wasn't that impressed with Alenquer and I feel he has a bit to find with Hurricane Lane. Aidan O'Brien runs three here and I think they all have enough to find. Wordsworth was 3rd in the Irish Derby but was well adrift of the 1-2 that day. Seven lengths is a lot to make up and I felt Wordworth was lucky to be third, with the 4th stumbling and unable to get a clear run and the 5th also hampered. Sir Lamorak was arguably a bit unlucky at Royal Ascot but that was off 100 in a Handicap and his new mark of 103 leaves him 16lbs behind Hurricane Lane. The Mediterranean has ground to make up with Alenquer from Royal Ascot and was actually dropped 2 lbs after that run. He sports first time blinkers but for me it's a big ask for a colt previously beaten in a Listed race that hasn't worked out since. The decision for me seems to be whether anything that ran in the French Derby could pose a problem for the favourite today? The winner of that race, St Mark's Basilica, went on to win the Eclipse and had earlier won the French Guineas. He is shaping as the best 3YO of the season and it still rankles that I backed him on his debut and he managed to be second to a horse who won a handicap in April off 89. The draw was kind to St Mark's Basilica in the French Derby, as he drew trap 2 while several of the fancied dangers ended up in the high coffin box berths. Saiydabad fared best of today's field in finishing 4th from stall 11 but it was Cheshire Academy who did best in finishing 5th from stall 19 in my view. Previously unbeaten the son of Flintshire looks to have more stamina on the dam side of his pedigree than stablemate Saiydabad has from his dam being out of Oasis Dream. Conclusion:- Alenquer is positive in the betting this morning but I don't think he beat very much last time. He could have been more forward than some when winning the Classic trial and I feel the line through Lone Eagle that gives Alenquer the advantage over Hurricane Lane on a literal reading may be spurious. Hurricane Lane is 8 lbs clear on official ratings according to ATR and 9 lbs clear on Racing Post Rankings. The sole concern is if the pace is strong enough to ensure that Hurricane Lane's stamina comes into play. He is the class horse but if it turns into a sprint there may be a disadvantage for the son of Frankel. At the odds I took a chance on Cheshire Academy upped in trip. I thought he ran a great race from the worst draw in the French Derby and feel he can reverse form with the 4th that day. The Rouget stable are firing at over 30% and he should run well today. 7.20 Longchamp Cheshire Academy 6/1
Uttoxeter 15,05 Jen's Boy 7/1 e/w Back to hurdles after disappointing over fences, CD winner, ground fine.
How do you calculate your ROI Nass. Is it based on starting bank v bank at end of year or total staked (ie including re-invested profit) v total return as at end of year?
Nobody wants Ideal Guest and that's not a surprise given his circumstances. He is a real left field selection and not much needed at 50/1 for a bit of sport. Oddly, none of the three with form are supported at all. Favourite Sassy Rascal is weak, as are Poderoso and Bailey's Liberty. Josies Kid and Swayze are the only positives in the race. Josie's Kid was a non-runner on intended debut due to "Unsuitable ground" and it was soft going that day. Amazingly enough it was soft when he ran last time. Why was that soft deemed suitable then? Anyway, I think Bailey's Liberty has drifted to a backable price now at 7/2. She seemed suited by quick ground last time out and finished her race well to almost get level with the leader before the other horse pulled out slightly more close home to win 3/4 of a length. The pair were well clear of the rest and the 5th horse won next time out. 5.30 Yarmouth Bailey's Liberty 7/2 seemed too big to leave alone.
I've the feeling Catch me if you can will run well in the 3.05 at Uttoxeter. There was market support for the horse last 2 runs when a beaten fav at Aintree in a race that looks stronger than todays and when 2nd two runs ago (7/2). Jeannie Candlish's last 5 runners all have earned minor money so stable could return to the winners enclosure today. I backed the horse last year on its first win at Market Rasen and will do so again today
Have you looked at the debut run of the rank outsider at this track nearly two weeks ago? Very slowly away and very green and rushed up to take up the lead pulling fiercely. Weakened from inside the two but showed plenty of dash, dropped back to the minimum trip today and this race has nothing like the class of animal that was in opposition that day. THATSTHEFINEST 150/1
Certainly shouldn't be taking you on, Grendel, but I give Poderoso a chance in this, even though he's drawn worst of all in trap 1. Good luck with yours though! P.S. Worked in Gt. Yarmouth late '60s, so know track very well. Flat oval course, bends a big tight but a very fair galloping track, with a straight mile also. Course has been worked-on (2015) since I was there, and it's even better now with some ridges and undulations removed. Strangely, the Riem track oval in Munich is almost identical, except that it does not have a straight mile.
Killarney 17.55 Timeform seem very keen on Queen's speech, despite it being 3lb clear bottom rated (with the small "p") and 17lb lower than top rated (and 15/8 fav) Mehnah (109 with small "p" and "Horse in Focus). At 12/1 maybe it is worth a dabble ew but I can't see it beating the fav
