Thursday's Meetings Carlisle Flat 8 Races 1:00-5:00p.m. Doncaster Flat 6 Races 1:10-4:00p.m. Newmarket Flat 7 Races 1:20-4:45p.m. Leopardstown(E) Flat 8 Races 4:40-8:10p.m. Epsom(E) Flat 7 Races 5:25-8:00p.m. Newbury(E) Flat 7 Races 5:50-8:50p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Place a bet in the Virtual Betting shop here Good Lucki
The July Stakes sees some of the Royal Ascot 2YO form come under the microscope. Project Dante was the early favourite but it is tight now between him and Eldrickjones. Project Dante was named with the York meeting in mind and he landed his maiden there on Dante day, by a neck form Korker. He was then upped in class for the Norfolk Stakes at the Royal meeting and he showed big improvement in only going down a head and a nose behind Perfect Power and Go Bears Go. The latter horse has gone on to win the Group 2 Railway stakes on Irish Derby Day, so the form has been solidified. Eldrickjones was beaten favourite at Thirsk on debut but only went down a nose. Four winners have come out of that race and Eldrickjones then exceeded all expectations when runner up to Berkshire Shadow in the Coventry. He was 66/1 that day and almost caused a boil-over. That was a big step up but I tend to find that big outsiders who place in good races tend not to work out more often than they go on to confirm the form. Just something I have tended to go by over the years and I like horses who have managed to win a race. 4th in the Coventry was Masseto and his run suggested that early Coventry favourite Castle Star would have gone close had he run in the race. Go Bears Go beating Castle Star in the Railway perhaps suggests that the Norfolk was the stronger Ascot race but Go Bears Go was stepping up to 6F and Castle Star dwelt and was in the rear before coming through to be runner up. The Coventry 5th was old pal Ebro River and he lines up to take on Eldrickjones again today. Ebro River has had a tendency to be wayward in his races but he was impressive when winning the National Stakes at Sandown on soft ground. I had gone against him at Ascot based on the faster ground and the fact that he was upped to 6F. The ground seemed no issue, as Ebro River travelled well during the race and he actually came through to lead in the closing stages before he seemed to run out of gas and others claimed him to leave him in 5th place. He's more exposed than some but he is rated 102 and may be one of those who still has mental progress to offer. I can't shake the fact that he has looked a 5F horse though. Dig Two also represents Hugo Palmer and interesting that he runs him and Ebro River here. This colt also seemed to need his first race before clocking two wuns and then a second place. That second came behind Chipotle in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot and while he was beaten more than two lengths that day, he came out of stall 25, with the winner all the way over in trap 1. Rated 5 lbs behind his stablemate Ebro River on official ratings. Although Dig Two has won over 6F it was in a class 5 race at Chelmsford and this is avery different ask today. Lusail was my early fancy for the Coventry after he made a taking debut as an outsider when getting up to score with something in hand. His tilt at the Ascot race was scrapped after he went down the pan on soft ground at Pontefract. The son of Mehmas had been ominously weak in the betting for that race and I decided to stay with him next time and he rewarded at odds of 7/2, paying back the Coventry loss. I can't say I was particularly impressed with Lusail's latest win but trainer Richard Hannon has said he feels that the colt is a 6F horse and it was 7F last time. He went on to say that he doesn't know what went wrong that day at Pontefract but is adamant that something was amiss. As a punter, I can't erase that awful run and he has to prove himself in a tough looking race now. Aleezdancer looked too big a price in the opening shows for this race. He was 4th on debut but left that miles behind when bolting up next time. He then followed up against lesser horses last time and looked massive at 20/1. Now almost half those odds he doesn't jump out as much as being overpriced but although the bare bones of a Carlisle win last time doesn't look great, he did carry a penalty and was eased down in a way that flattered the rest. He is a gelding and not the biggest of horses but there is some talent there for sure. Asymmetric is 2/2 for Alan King. The son of Showcasing was a 150,000 Guineas Breeze Up buy and not the typical sort for the stable. His wins have come at Goodwood, where the 4/7 Fav flopped and then at Newmarket where he was odds-on to concede the 6 lb penalty and did so well enough. This is a big step up after two class 4 novices and I don't see any value at 12/1. Tolstoy was said to be immature by Frankie when asked about him as they were loading for the Coventry and he was beaten about 5 lengths in 10th place. That leaves him with something to find his debut win has not thrown up a winner in 13 starts. The Organiser was too free in the Coventry but is now fitted with a tongue tie. I can't have him or Tolstoy at 12/1 though. Jadhlaan has been disappointing but finally won as favourite on his third start. He has looked a 5F horse and now tries 6F. Looks too short to me at a general 11/1. Sam Maximus is rank outsider but doesn't have much to find with several of these and is nearly three times their price at 33/1, he may outrun those odds after just two starts. Conclusion:- Hard to escape that Project Dante looks like the most solid option. He looks like 6F will help and Go Bears Go has franked the Group 2 form with a win in another Group 2 at the Curragh. He is highest rated on official figures with a 103 ranking. Several line up from the Coventry and I have a feeling Ebro River might just do best of them this time. He travelled well into that race and may have benefited from being held up for longer. A slight nag for me about the 6th furlong but he looked a good colt at Sandown when overcoming waywardness to win well. Aleezdancer appeals most of the ones in double figure prices. If he were still 20/1 I would have played each-way but he's 10/1 now. Sam Maximus may surprise a few and makes some appeal at 25/1 four places each way for big price fans. 2.25 Newmarket Project Dante 7/2 Project Dante/Ebro River RF
Kind words. Looking at the selection box on the Racing Post website I see only one tip for Project Dante and six tips for the maiden Eldrickjones. That seems odd to me, perhaps the thinking is that the Coventry is the best 2YO race at Royal Ascot. In the opener at Ascot I felt that those with form were nothing special and I was interested in the Stoute newcomer Invigilate. This filly is a full sister to Expert Eye, who was one time favourite for the 2000 Guineas after bolting up in the Vintage Stakes. He flopped in the Dewhurst next time and it didn't quite pan out as expected in the Guineas but he got back on track in the Jersey Stakes and ended up winning over a mile at the Breeders Cup that season. If Invigilate is anywhere near her brother's talent level she would be decent and they have her entered in the Lowther Stakes. A win here would be essential you would think for a filly with those aspirations and given the form of those who have run already I would not be surprised to see her make a winning debut and I like her 5/1 odds. Support in the morning would be encouraging but I felt she was worth playing now at the odds. 1.20 Newmarket Invigilate 5/1
The 3.00 Newmarket is a wide open handicap over 6F and the key race to look at may be the Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes that was run at Ascot. Today's favourite Boomshalaa was runner up there and races from just 3 lbs higher for that strong effort. That was a 5F race and he is returning to 6F here, so that may help as well. It was heavy at Ascot though and he is short today at a general 4/1. Another horse from that Ascot race was Popmaster and although he was only 8th that day he meets Boomshalaa on 5 lbs better terms and different ground today. Popmaster has not won on turf yet but he only went down a nose and a neck when second in two fast ground Handicaps on turf. Prior to that Popmaster was only a half length behind Rohaan, when that revelation was only rated 91 and there was no caste in defeat getting only 7 lbs from a horse who would have to give him 28 lbs if they met on their current marks. Diligent Harry is another good horse Popmaster was just behind in Rohaan's race and the fact that they gelded Popmaster later suggests they feel there was more to come. Back on a sound surface and generally progressive, I thought Popmaster was better value than Boomshalaa at 15/2. Jumby has a touch of class but plenty of weight to go with it. Blackrod ran well last time and is another with a shout. 3.00 Newmarket Popmaster 15/2 Popmaster/Boomshalaa RF
William Hills offering 6/1 to a £5 stake on Stowell/Al Aasy double. Given the double is currently 3.4/1. This small stakes mug punter is tempted! Should I be?
I had a weeny virtual bet on Boomshalaa but, on reflection, that Ascot form could be useless as the ground was heavy and today it is GF. Two that look overpriced on fast ground are Whenthedealinsdone (14/1) and Akkeringa (10/1). If there is late money for either of these it could be worth taking note
Be afraid! Today's Telly Terribles! Nmkt 150 Yibir 225 Project Dante / The Organiser ew 300 Popmaster 335 Al Aasy Car 205 Velocistar Apologies Grendel, I've landed on some of yours!
I'm sure we've all been tempted by offers to good to be true. Skybet is one I always look at - but don't always act on!
Looking forward to seeing Al Aasy in just over 30 minutes - I thought he was very unlucky at Epsom and hopefully he can get back on track today. Will he go for the King George if he wins this? Only 16 days hence but he is entered (and also for the International at York).
Hmmmm ………. Disappointing. I doubt he’ll be taking up those group 1 engagements. Something back at Newbury perhaps?
Don't you think he's a Polo horse? Looks very good when he's got 10lbs+ in hand of the others but when someone is near him in ability he chickens out.
Just watched the replay after getting in from work Oh my, I just watched the replay of the racing from Newmarket. What can I say other than Graham Lee certainly didn't aid the horse in its run today for you Grendel. Must have thought it was one of the 2 furlong races in the States, you could see him checking back 2 furlongs in and realising he had made a balls of the fractions with only Dig Two attempting to go with the pace, both finishing well beaten last and second last. Hard lines on that one.
I've probably misunderstood your comment, but that's no surprise, but Polo ponies do NOT chicken-out! They are tough as nails and have the speed of a quarter-horse. My Wife's boss was a top German Polo player and I have watched many games in Germany in the past, and visited the stables of the ponies. I was lucky enough to see a few top Argentine players too (they are fantastic). We treasure a signed photograph off Wife's boss, (who has sadly passed away), at Cowdray Park with his arm around Prince Charles after a game! Polo is where I found 'The Gipsy Kings' too, as their music was always played at Polo games here. Their music fitted the occasion perfectly!. Gipsy Kings - Volare (Official Video) - YouTube
I thought Project Dante would have been held up going up to 6F today but he was blasted off at a suicidal pace and was never going to last home. To add insult to injury my Coventry horse Lusail went and won it and I had been toying with him at 11/1 when betting first opened and then talked myself out of it. I got a few things correct, with Ebro River doing best of the Coventry runners but again looked as if 5F is his game. He came with a promising looking run but weakened as he had done in the Coventry. Hugo Palmer should take the hint and he wants to have a word with Rom Marquand about chasing suicidal pace in a race. I mentioned that Sam Maximus was the best priced outsider and that each-way support with four places might appeal to big odds backers. In the end he didn't need the 4th place in going down a head and the same in third place at a Brucie Bonus price of 40/1. Aleezdancer was disappointing and thank goodness I stuck to my notion that he was too short at 10/1 after being 20/1 early doors. In the end he drifted to 14/1 and the vibes were not good. Talking of bad vibes Invigilate was drifting like a barge today and at 10/1 I knew the game was up. She raced in a reasonable position but found little when needed. Ran as if she needed this experience but the Lowther entry looks fanciful on this display. Frankella was a shade disappointing first time up and went backwards from that run next time. I agreed with Bustino's sentiment that she looked a bust but up she popped today and won at 20/1. It's a funny old game as Greavsie would say. Popmaster ran an excellent race in third place, beaten a neck and a short head. These sprint handicaps are hard to land and Boomshalaa was disappointing in 9th place. Jumby was also a no show but I mentioned that Blackrod could be a player and he landed it at 11/1. Royal Scimitar ran his best race for a while and it coincided with his return to the the 6F he won over on debut. It seems odd that it took so long to go back to that distance with him.
