The mid meeting downpour has obviously dented my confidence in Fantastic Fox, I dont think he was crying out for soft ground and it probably negates the low draw advantage he would have had on fast ground if they shun the rail again like yesterday on the round course. Hes by Frankel and most of them handle soft, and he has held up in the betting which is also promising. I think hes a 105+ horse running off 94, but Shiekha Reikha got well beat in a handicap off 88 before winning a listed and G1 on her next two starts so nothings a cert.
Highest Ground was favourite for the Group 3 Darley Stakes last season but seemed lost on the soft ground that day, trailing the field in 10th place. That race has been pretty shocking in terms of form since with Highest Ground last time out win being the only success from 28 subsequent runs. His latest win came in a modest race that was virtually a match and he prevailed from an opponent rated 4 lbs lower than himself, whilst getting 4 lbs from the runner up. Despite Stoute's excellent record in today's race, I think Highest Ground needs a good personal best to win today and the going has to be a worry. Broome seemed to re-boot his career this season. His full brother Point Lonsdale is favourite for the Chesham and there must be a reasonable chance that they can be Brothers In Arms today so I have had a dabble with a double at 11/8 and 7/2, which is just a shade under 10/1. It could be Money For Nothing or I might be in Dire Straits. Broome has won fairly weak races in his winning run and he did go down a short head last time but he has winning form on soft and should be in the mix. At a better price I thought Hukum was worth a single at 15/2, he has as good a chance as any really and has won on soft before. In the Chesham Point Lonsdale is too short to be value but that is as nothing compared to the honking value he is to win NEXT year's Derby. William Hill have himas their 8/1 market leader and that is ridiculous. God knows what he will be if he wins today but at 40/1 bar the Fav we would need to be looking at another Frankel to warrant the prices. Mind you a 12F Frankel we would need.
Hard work for Point Lonsdale and the person with 350000 on must have been cacking their pants. Ryan Moore just said the colt was a typical Galileo WTF? The sire is Australia. Anyway Broome for the double now.
Point Lonsdale left at 8/1 for the Derby, so the better call was backing him for today's race and then going in with the winnings for a free bet. Reach For The Moon was cut to 25/1 but I don't see any value in either horse for a race on 4th June 2022.
This is too busy a day. Anyway I got my money back on Lusail today. I had backed him for the Coventry ante-post but he flopped in his prep race and that went out the window. In calmer waters at Class 4 Novice level and upped to 7F, he managed to concede 6 lbs to win at odds of 7/2 at Newmarket. I feel partly vindicated that I saw promise in him.
In the Jersey I felt Mutasaabeq was worth another go. He has parallels with Alcohol Free in trying to rebound from a Guineas run. He should appreciate the drop to 7F I feel and he remains unexposed after perhaps being asked too much too soon in the Guineas. Still something of a dark horse, I thought 13/2 was a fair price. 3.05 Ascot Mutasaabeq 13/2
Creative Force was so impressive at Newbury I didn’t think he would get beat today. Another superb performance.
I was worried about the 7th furlong today but it was no problem. He's made great improvement this season.
Broome was second, so no double. He ran well but just doesn't do anything quickly in his races. Hukum put up a solid performance in third but wonderful tonight had it in control from a fair way out. Highest Ground again ran like a horse who just isn't a 109 performer and he seems stuck with a mark too high for Handicaps, yet he isn't really Group standard. The Jubilee doesn't really look a Group 1 standard this season and I feel Dream Of Dreams can win it. Not great odds but few really appeal and he has a good record in this race, perhaps due a win now. 4.20 Ascot Dream Of Dreams 3/1
Bet of the week beat after a furlong, worked up pre race and sds thought it was a good idea to set him alight and use him as a pacemaker. Interestingly the same owners high knee action winner comes from last, maybe SDS was riding to instructions, beat half track but the handicapper won't be dropping him.
