Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 15th. June 2021

A long time ago, it was said that if you did not win on the first day of Royal Ascot then you should put your wallet away. That was when the Tuesday card consisted of five pattern races and one closing handicap.

Looking at the Tuesday card, I am struggling to find anything that I would consider a confident bet.

The week’s banker Palace Pier will start favourite backers off in the Queen Anne; but I do not back odds-on. It does not look a great renewal and the winners from two and three years ago have hardly lit up racing since and look like they are just making up the numbers today. Ballydoyle’s two representatives do not look top draw and the yard has hardly been its usual model of consistency this term. With Moore choosing shock Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Order Of Australia that probably means Seamie Heffernan is on the forecast horse Lope Y Fernandez.

I never touch the two year olds this early in the season and Wesley Ward’s runner Kaufymaker in the Coventry was short because of the trainer’s record at the meeting whilst Timeform are tipping the Hannon runner Gisburn.

Clearly the one to beat in the King’s Stand is old boy Battaash, he goes well fresh but I can give him a miss at 2/1.

Timeform are also keen on my Guineas ante-post loser, Battleground. He ended up favourite at HQ even though not the choice of Moore. Now more has deserted Guineas ride Wembley and switched to him.

Sitting in the pub watching them for once, I can wait until after the first couple of races before sinking anything with my money and free Bet365 bet.

 

Just a bit over a quarter of a million running on the seven year old then. Mind you, if you can afford that sort of bet, you probably are not sweating too much – except if you are standing in the heat at Ascot.


I should have had a bet on that Queen Anne forecast. Moore on the wrong one (again). I might have a problem for the St James’s Palace Stakes...

Palace Pier not as impressive on quick ground as he is when it is easier. Or perhaps it is more the case that his opponents are better on quick ground while he just handles it.

 

3:05;

I've had Gisburn and Berkshire Shadow in my tracker since their first race. I made a note that both needed further at the time. Had a tiny bet on Berkshire at 25/1 last week but I don't think I could back him at 12's, according to my notes on the first race "missed the start, very green throughout, plugged on and came through with great speed, looks v good, prob 6f". Odds are too short now to trust he gets all these things right on only his second start... Gisburn in that race I have noted that he "passed a number of horses, didn't weaken but suddenly became very green edging to his right and ruining his own run, found space again and ran on, poss 6f"... I'd be worried about him edging right again today as he still went a bit right in his previous race. If that problem is sorted he'd have a good chance. Out of Gosden's two I'd much prefer Tolstoy at his odds. I thought his win looked a bit more impressive, even if the form from Dhabab's race has worked out better. I'd also question if Dhabab is ready. Dettori having chosen Tolstoy or Gosden having put Rab Havlin on Dhabab, seems to suggest to me he might need today to improve. I have no idea about Kaufymaker but WW's record at 6f isn't great I would imagine. Starting out over 4/4.5f on dirt to go up to 6f on grass I'd have my doubts.

I'd probably settle on Tolstoy or Masseto. Donnacha said he'd prefer better ground LTO and met lots of trouble in running and still finished second behind Castle Star in a Group 3. Also an E/W shout for Vintage Clarets. Ran ok in the Brocklesby but came up short on his first race. Has won his next two races easily on good to firm and looked like he was staying on both times and that the extension to 6f would suit. At 28/1 I feel I'd get at least a run for my money.

So if Gisburn or Berkshire Shadow win this race (which is very possible) I might just have to go and get sick

 

Happy enough with 3rd for Vintage Clarets!

 

That was an excellent ride by Oisin. He knew his colt would stay, sat behind and waited for the rail to open up and then ran through to win going away.

I wonder if the ground is riding faster against that stands’ rail as a furlong out the runners out in the middle were in front.

With all the stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree they will surely be looking for seven furlongs.

 

Well that is annoying when your forecast horse wins well and the selection runs like a sack of crap. Gisburn was beaten very early doors and was very disappointing.
There were few excuses I saw and the winner is the one you would want to be with going forward. That was a nice performance from the Balding colt and he has come forward from his debut, while Gisburn took a big step back today.

Big run from Vintage Clarets and I briefly had an echo of last season's race with 66/1 shot Eldrickjones who was beaten at Thirsk in a maiden on his only previous start.

Kaufymaker was said to be Wesley's best, so if that is true I would imagine it being a "Man the lifeboats" job with his other runners this week.

Masseto ran well enough to suggest that Castle Star might have won this today, he would certainly have been second at least on the form line. Ebro River ran well on ground that might have been lively enough for him.

I think the guy who has The Acropolis at 66/1 for the 2000 Guineas can visit his swing bin and make a deposit.

Gisburn couldn't even beat 125/1 and 200/1 shots today WTF?

 

Had to watch a rerun of the Coventry as I was putting our hay up - bloody hot work rolling those things

Looked to me as though the fav was robbed; finished remarkably well despite being brought to almost a standstill when challenging. I think I would back him to reverse placings with those in front (maybe not the winner)

 

And I'm sick Why didn't I stick with Berkshire Shadow Vintage Clarets and Masseto placed so not all bad...

3:40;

Have to go with Battaash here, especially as I've been waiting about 6 months for my Stradivarius/Battaash double!

More interested with the forgotten horses from last year instead of the horses near the top... Extravagant Kid's first run in the UK would have me avoiding him although having Frankie is much better in my opinion than an American jockey who doesn't really know the track (Are you listening Wesley Ward?). I've heard people talking about Winter Power and Atalis Bay boosting his form but Atalis Bay's race was just a listed event so I'm not buying that. 2 horses that beat Winter Power last year interest me... Acklam Express at 50/1 and Ubettabelieveit at 40/1. The Nigel Tinkler horse finished last in that race I mentioned miles behind Atalis Bay and Winter Power, but he was sweating beforehand, agitated, seemed struggling before halfway through and that was his first race back in the UK after a good spring in Meydan culminating in only a 1/2L defeat to Extravagant Kid. 2 lbs worse off with that horse today but if can find extra improvement on Good to Firm should surely be worth an E/W punt. Apart from 1 race over too far (6f) Ubettabelieveit had an unbelievable (sorry ) season last year finishing with a good third at the breeders cup. Disappointed hugely at Chantilly on his comeback run this year but if you can ignore that race which was probably the softest ground he'd ran on in his career than I can't understand this horse's odds being so high... Arecibo really interested me at 40/1 earlier. At 33/1 & 28/1 I'd have slightly less interest but a typical Jamie Spencer ride is exactly what this horse needs, getting going right at the end picking a path through other horses nearer the winning post. There's a few of these that could add some speed at the start, hopefully Winter Power, Extravagant Kid, Oxted, Liberty Beach and Ornate. Hopefully this will set it up for the 3 horses mentioned and Battaash.

Might do an optimistic t/c with Battaash winning and Liberty Beach and the others 2 and 3 maybe...

 

In fairness, Wesley Ward has had about 4000 horses and according to him, they're all his best horses, and also the best horses in the world. Is there any other trainer that's even nearly as positive as him?

 

Hoping Winter Power can get better of Battaash, although I have had a saver on the latter.
Ornate - small each way at 250/1

 

Was just about to post this... 400/1 on 365... Got a few tiny ones at 8 places at 80/1 and 6 places at 150/1

 

Ooops

 

Ouch!

 

From a form point of view, the St James’s Palace Stakes is something of a quandary.

Six of the thirteen contested the 2000 Guineas with varying degrees of success. Obviously Poetic Flare won it, which would suggest that he should beat all the others again on similar going. Lucky Vega was less than a length away in third and was ridden positively despite the possibility that he would not stay but could not hold off the first two. Will a different track allow him to reverse the running?

Poetic Flare put in a poor showing in the Poulains on soft ground but then ran second to his stablemate in the Irish 2000 Guineas, where Lucky Vega was ridden less aggressively and plodded past beaten horses into fourth as favourite. So backing Lucky Vega today would seem to require hope that they revert to the tactics from Newmarket and the quick ground and the different track make the difference.

Chindit ran fifth in the Guineas but I am not yet convinced that he really does get the mile. He was held up like a doubtful stayer but he ran on past beaten horses in the last furlong to be about four lengths behind the winner. Will a different track really make up the difference?

The other three from HQ were all out with the washing. Thunder Moon was stone last and never went a yard. If something was amiss, he may show his true running today for Frankie. The other possibility is he has not trained on. Just in front of him there was BATTLEGROUND, with Frankie aboard. Ryan Moore has deserted Wembley, who was up with the front rank at HQ until the business end of the race but has switched to Found’s son today.

The other key form race here is the Heron Stakes, where the unbeaten Frankel colt Mostahdaf beat Highland Avenue and Bullace on soft ground. Obviously conditions will not be the same today and Mostahdaf won both his other races on slow conditions.

So having read that Timeform feel that Ascot will suit him better, I am giving my ante post Guineas loser one last chance and hoping that Ryan Moore has chosen the right one (even if it probably will be the last time this week!) and am on BATTLEGROUND.

 

Seemed like Crowley went a bit too early, was probably a bit too confident... Race did set up for some serious finishers, you wouldn't have picked Oxted halfway through and Arecibo... A classic Spencer finish which suits this horse perfectly, I don't even know if you could see him out the back in last but a great ride to nearly get him up to win. When Spencer times it right, he's very good, but he's like a bus from the city centre, could be waiting 4 weeks for one and then a few pop up!

4:20;

Such a difficult race... Firmest ground Poetic Flare has raced on I'd imagine, Chindit seems to love it the firmer the better, Lucky Vega is a super consistent horse who you can't rule out completely, Battleground had a shocker in the 2,000 guineas but at Ascot could be a different story, Highland Avenue and Mostahdaf both looked fairly impressive LTO, Thunder Moon a bit like Battleground had a shocker in the guineas but could bolt up here, Wembley and Ontario could end up being an O'Brien special...

If I had to play it... I'm trying to think what La Barrosa's odds would be if it hadn't ran in the Irish guineas. That was on basically heavy ground and his only other race on heavy he finished dead last too. Back at Ascot where he won on debut on probably the firmest ground he's faced I think he's a bit overpriced at 20's...
Also, Highland Avenue and Mostahdef are both between 6/1-8/1. Mostahdef won by 1/2L ahead of Highland Avenue, but only another 1/2L behind was Bullace. In fairness Mostahdef seemed like the best horse in the race to me but if things don't go his way, I'd chance Bullace to close the margin and maybe get involved at 50/1...