Daily Racing Thread Friday 11th. June 2021

Friday's Meetings

Sandown
Flat 8 Races 12:30-4:30p.m.
Clonmel
N/H 8 Races 1:15-5:10p.m.
Chepstow
Flat 7 Races 1:25-4:50p.m.
York
Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:05p.m.
Fairyhouse(E)
Flat 8 Races 3:50-7:40p.m.
Goodwood(E)
Flat 6 Races 5:20-8:10p.m.
Newton Abbot(E)
N/H 7 Races 5:30-8:50p.m.
Aintree(E)
N/H 7 Races 5:45-9:00p.m.


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Good Luck

 

Newton Abbot 6.00 Peat Moss

- good 3rd on only visit to Newton Abbot last year (hampered during the race, kept on)
- poor on last run over hurdles at Wincanton in a class 4 on soft last season but I think today in a class 5 on fast ground is less demanding. Before that his form over hurdles wasn't bad.

- fit from the flat this year (AW winner)
- on a career-low mark
- 3 from Nigel Hawke's last 5 runners have been in the money (1 winner 2 longshots placed)

I'm hopefull this one will run well for each way purposes this evening.

 

The York 2.20 sees a few with chances but I thought it worth risking a handicap debutante in Desert Emperor.

Desert Emperor was with Roger Varian but never raced and was then gelded and transferred to Ivan Furtado. Three runs have seen consistent efforts in the 70's on RPR figures and he lines up rated 77 on official rankings. He seemed a little outpaced at a mile last time and steps up in trip today. He missed his last couple of engagements due to soft going but gets good to firm today. By Camelot it could be hoped Desert Emperor can improve in handicap company and the stable are 4/10 this past fortnight for a strong 40% strike rate.

With 12 runners and 4 places up for grabs I thought an each-way play of double stake win and single stake place offered a money back for a place option,


2.20 York Desert Emperor 11/1 2pts win, 1pt place. (1-2-3-4)

 

A couple of interesting 7F races for 2YO's at Sandown.

Bold And Loyal is a Frankel out of an unraced half-sister to Enable. Trained by Michael Stoute he is favourite at 2/1. The Stoute horses are not always as forward as some though and just for an interest I did Clive Cox's Incumbent, despite him being weak in the market. He is a son of Ulysses. In the other division Charlie Appleby's Native Trail is short at Evens but I did another Cox horse Lets Fly Again, who cost 125,000 Guineas and may be decent.

1.00 Sandown Incumbent 13/2
1.35 Sandown Lets Fly Again 6/1

Singles and an each-way double

 

Incumebent bounced out of the stalls well and was prominent but when he came under pressure he found little. Looked like a sprinter to me and I would be surprised if he doesn't drop back in trip. Nice debut for Roger Charlton's La Pugla who finished strongly and won going away. Bold And Loyal was easy to back and only managed to beat my pick a neck in 5th.

 

My heart sank when I saw Let's Fly Again in the paddock. He didn't look the part at all and he was never involved in finishing 5th.

Native Trail was the pick of the paddock and looks a real prospect. He came there looking all over the winner and fairly flew when given the office. Odds on thought he was he fairly demolished his field and that was as impressive as anything I have seen this season in the 2YO ranks.

By Oasis Dream out of an unraced Observatory mare, I would see no issue with Native Trail getting a mile and at 210,000 Guineas, he was a better buy at than Lets Fly Again at 125,000 Guineas.

 

I've the feeling Reve in the 6.50 at Aintree will leave a poor run at Cheltenham behind. Won well at Southwell over fences under Sean Bowen 2 runs ago and the Keighly yard is in good form at the moment

 

Desert Emperor held a really good spot and seemed to be travelling well. I was hopeful but he weakened really badly. After looking like he needed more than a mile last time, the opposite was true today. Disappointed with that effort.

 

You've touched on something that I've regarded as the great insoluble conundrum for years, Grendel. Your betting methods and mine seem (at least broadly) comparable, and I'd be interested in your views about whether to move early or late.

Putting it simply, there seems no doubt that taking an early price will always have the 'value' edge over SP, or over waiting until they're practically in the stalls before betting. If anything, this has become even more true in the past year or so, when the big bookmakers are, for all practical purposes, declaring their their own SPs now that the old track-based system has collapsed. I'll accept that there's a small upside to this in the sense that winners returned at 100-1 and more aren't the once in a blue moon event they used to be so, if you like outsiders, you're probably getting a slightly better deal as a result of the squeezing of the top two or three in the market. When I started racing, you never saw anything returned at more than 33-1 outside the Grand National, the Derby, and a handful of high-profile handicaps.

The other side of the coin is your experience with LFA today; roughly, if you want to see how a horse looks and behaves, take account of late going changes, or note whether important connections are present in the flesh or not, you have to wait until the course market is pretty much formed. I took the view a while ago - reluctantly - that I'd rather wait and miss the price than go in early and gradually realise that I've backed a no-hoper. This view's been reinforced by noting how (polite word) 'volatile' last-minute betting markets are at the winter AW meetings.

All this touches slightly on the 'collapse' in Adayar's Derby price, given that no one admits to having backed him. Any thoughts on that ?

 

(Boris Fenster (latest pseudonym is Crypto Capone) tried hard, but even he could not manage to having admitted to backing Adayar )

 

An unmitigated disaster that was Oddy. What a horse though, Harchibald. Some great races he was involved in with Rooster Booster, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca and Inglis Drever over the years they raced. I'm not 100% certain, but I think he still resides at Noel Meade's stable in Navan.