Sunday's Meetings Listowel Flat 8 Races 1:10-5:00p.m. Kilbeggan N/H 8 Races 1:20-5:15p.m. Goodwood Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:10p.m. Perth N/H 7 Races 2:00-5:25p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Place a bet in the Virtual Betting shop here Good Luck
15:30 Goodwood - Lydford (Tackles 2-miles for first time. Closely-related to Big Orange, former winner of the Ascot Gold Cup. Should certainly go well in this event. Callum Shepherd rides for trainer Roger Varian. 3/1 is top price at time of writing , PP and BetVictor.)
Have had a little e/w singles and double today at Perth. Ain't My fault 25/1 (5 places) Green Zone 40/1 (4 places: Just seen Green Zone has come into 16s. Glad I took the price now...unlike yesterday
After a limited amount of discussion of the draw in the Epsom Derby, today there will probably be much more for the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby). Several of the main contenders, especially the British ones, have high draws that are viewed as being as detrimental as a low draw at Epsom, for the same reason. The ground at Chantilly is reported as very soft, which would equate to ‘soft’ in this country; and more rain is expected. St Mark’s Basilica lines up in search of the French Classic double that has been completed three times since the race was shortened to ten furlongs. O’Brien has retained successful Poulains jockey Ioritz Mendizabal and the horse should have no problem with the extra distance or the ground. He is re-opposed by Policy Of Truth (fourth), Normandy Bridge and Sealiway, but I cannot see any reason why they should reverse running. Ballydoyle is also represented by Van Gogh, who was third in the Irish 2000 Guineas last time but does have a high draw. The three British raiders feature Dee Stakes winner El Drama for Roger Varian and two from the Gosden barn, Derab and Megallan. The most exposed of those is Megallan, whose second in the Dante behind Derby third Hurricane Lane might be considered good form; however, he was well beaten in the Futurity at Doncaster on heavy ground and the Autumn Stakes at HQ on soft ground so he looks one to ignore when that is added to his high draw. El Drama won on soft ground on debut and has won at the trip last time so the high draw is Mikael Barzalona’s problem as much as whether the Dee Stakes makes this horse good enough to win. Sandwiched between those two in the stalls is the well related Derab, an unknown quantity on very soft ground but facile winner of a novice event last time. The home defence is dominated by the three runners for Jean Claude Rouget. If it were not for the high draws, Makaloun and the unbeaten Cheshire Academy would be single figure prices. Cheshire Academy was awarded the Prix Noailles and second Pretty Tiger re-opposes from a much better berth. Makaloun was beaten in the Saint Cloud Criterium last fall but has been prepared for this race, skipping the Poulains for the Prix Guiche. The Aga Khan’s colt is re-opposed by Millebosc, Fort Payne and Adhamo, of which only Fort Payne does not have a single figure draw. Those three rivals were all race fit in the Guiche, so Makaloun could still account for them all under Christophe Soumillon. Most interesting of the Aga Khan’s two runners may be Rouget’s Prix de Suresnes winner Saiydabad, unbeaten in three including that course and distance win. Has Soumillon done a Ryan Moore and picked the wrong one? Who would have thought that the Jockey Club would not feature an Andre Fabre runner? It would be like having no Aidan O’Brien runner in the Derby. The one that I am going for to give some cheer to Coolmore is BABY RIDER. Pascal Bary’s colt is a son of their Galileo stallion Gleneagles and comes here having won the most recognised trial race the Prix Greffuhle. Runner-up Smile Makers re-opposes from a bad draw but that was his second time behind the selection.
Following on from QM's in depth analysis of one race at Chantilly I've spent the best part of 5 minutes reviewing the card at Goodwood and backed Buicks rides in 2 lots of 3 singles and a treble. I've not paid any attention to draw/ground bias just he seems a nice lad.
Perth 16,20 Forgot To Ask 9/1 e/w five places with WH and Sky. Kilbeggan 15,00 Deealli 12/1 e/w four places
The French Derby is the feature today and it looks tricky with the big field. French Guineas winner St Mark's Basilica is an obvious favourite after landing the French Guineas nicely last time. It was very soft that day and it was also soft when he won the Dewhurst, so there should be no fears for him on today's ground. The Dewhurst hasn't really panned out this season though and St Mark's Basilica beat a rank 80/1 outsider in the French Guineas. Poetic Flare, who was narrow favourite that day, didn't run his race and performed much better next time when going close in the Irish Guineas. With the extra distance an unknown factor for the Fav today, I felt he needed to be taken on. I bet Makaloun ante-post at 12/1 but was hoping for a slightly better showing from him last time. He won, but I had expected something slightly more decisive. I was also hoping for less testing ground and to put the tin lid on it he drew coffin corner box 18. I don't think I have had a favourable draw on an ante-post bet since Three Troikas in 1979 At least Makaloun runs but he is only one of three Jean-Claude Rouget saddles and the trainer was clear soon after Makaloun's that he wanted to run others as well, so hardly singling out Makaloun as "The one" Rouget's Cheshire Academy has landed box 19, so the draw has been unkind to the master trainer. The son of Flintshire is unbeaten but actually went down a nose before being awarded a Group 3 last time. He had just failed to get up that day but the stewards reversed the placings. I can;t see him winning from the widest draw of all. Rouget's other runner Saiydabad has fared fractionally better in stall 11. I read a comment after Makaloun's last race where the trainer seemed keen to run the Aga Khan's other horse because he felt he had earned his place but although he has progressed roughly ten pounds with each race so far, another ten pounds won't be enough here and I feel he needs twenty to figure here. Van Gogh was 3rd in the Irish Guineas but was some way adrift of Mac Swiney and Poetic Flare. To be honest I am not sure he has looked like a horse who wants 10F but in theory he could do better at the trip. His Epsom Derby hopes seemed to fade quickly this season and I would rather have seen him committed to 10F from the start of the season. Derab hosed up last time and he is well supported here. That was only a Class 4 race, where he was odds on though. The third horse was since beaten as 8/13 Fav in a Carlisle maiden and this is a whole different ball game. I see Hugh Taylor has tipped him and although he "Could be anything" I see no value as 6/1 second favourite, bearing in mind he is taking on a French Classic winner rated 15 lbs higher on official rating and he is drawn 12 boxes wider than the favourite in stall 14 compared to stall 2. Megallan is more highly rated than Derab but the fellow Gosden inmate has been well tried. His 2nd in the Dante was a new personal best but both Hurricane lane who won and High Definition, who was third, were outpaced that day over a trip probably short of ideal for both. I don't think Megallan is quite good enough to win Group 1 races and, again, he has a high draw in stall 15. El Drama won the Dee Stakes but I thought that was a weak renewal and he's in stall 13, so not the best of boxes. Not many of the fancies ones have good draws and in some ways St Mark's Basilica jumps out as a Guineas winner coming out of stall 2. I have gone with Pretty Tiger. He had looked most progressive before only pipping the fast finishing Cheshire Academy by a nose last time before losing it in the Stewards Room. I felt he probably went on too soon that day and was only closed right down is the last stride after looking to have put it to bed. In stall 7 today, he has a much better draw than the horse who chased him so close last time. I expect he will reverse the form today and he's my idea of the value at 14/1. 3.00 Longchamp Pretty Tiger 14/1 Ante Post Makaloun 12/1
I should just have stuck with this thought:- "Not many of the fancies ones have good draws and in some ways St Mark's Basilica jumps out as a Guineas winner coming out of stall 2."
I know visual impressions can be misleading, and the clock's not always an infallible guide, but....SMB does look like a proper horse (un vrai cheval, as Etienne Pollet used to say, when the world was young).
Lydford was certainly a disastrous pick, ran poorly. Not my day at all, had to go out and got back to see that the Bowen family won the big race at Perth. Oh well, any further comment would be 'aftertiming', of course, so shut my mouth before the Garda gets after me! Woe is me, today! Think I've still got some Canadian Club rye whisky (my favourite) in the cabinet. Think I'll finish it off this evening, might help with the blues! Well done to Gazboy for telling us that William Buick would do well at Goodwood today, and to anyone else who managed a winner or two!
