I actually think Oath was the last winner from stall 1 in any 1m 4f race at Epsom with double-figure field and not just The Derby? Stats are there to be broken though
Just a footnote, literally, on today's Derby. The vet reported that Bolshoi Ballet had been struck into on his right hind early in the race but it was also noted that runner up Mojo Star had been struck into on his left fore. Meanwhile the vet reported that Hurricane Lane had lost BOTH fore shoes during the race. It says a lot that horse who was struck into has managed to be second and a horse with only half his shoes was third.
Looking back at the Lingfield Trial David Egan did catch Buick napping with that move on the outside round the bend while Adayar had nowhere to go, Adayar had looked a machine on soft ground which gave merit to Third Realm beating him I thought but Third Realm is absolutely dwarfed by Adayar and obviously didnt progress much from the run based on todays evidence. Atzeni is a 5 pound penalty as well. I think the winner was backable and plenty did it seems, 40s into 16s. Mojo Star had form with Scope who was 3rd in the Lingfield Trial so that was obviously the key trial.
Erm, a French keyboard was not necessary. For example, Bayern Munich's Sports Director's name is Hasan Salihamidžić, and I don't have a Socialist Republic of Bosnia & Herzegovina keyboard to put in the didgery-do's at the end. God, I'm a clever dick sometimes!
Since starting stalls were introduced in 1967, Oath in 1999 was the only horse to have won the Derby from stall 1. Now it has been done twice. No horse has won from stall 2.
Yes, he is. He was a bloody continual nuisance to Hansi Flick when he sat on the bench right behind the trainer. Surely the new young trainer of Bayern, Julian Nagelsmann, is aware of this, and should not tolerate it. Hasan S. needs to be despatched to the Stands to watch games, not sat on the bench? Used to like Hasan S. as a player with Bayern; always gave 100% effort throughout the full 90-minutes. The post of Sports Director, though, seems to have gone to his head?
How much difference does losing TWO shoes make to a horse's performance in a 12F race? According to the Racing Post assessor it is 3 lbs. Hurricane Run ran to 114 in the Dante and sans a brace of shoes he has run to 111 in the Derby. Adayar has been rated 123 and Mojo Star 116. That means the winner has improved 16 lbs since the Lingfield Derby trail. The runner-up has been raised 22 lbs since being beaten as Evens favourite in a Newbury maiden three weeks ago. Some achievement considering he was struck into. I highly doubt these ratings. I knew that they would try to inflate them simply because it is a Classic. The key is to look at how many performed miles below their ratings. Mac Swiney has been awarded 106 in 4th, 13 lbs below his best and Bolshoi Ballet was rated 21 lbs below his best. Those fancied contenders have clearly not run their races. The Racing Post man appears to have framed the race on the 3rd, 4th and 5th horses, with Hurricane Lane being given only a few pounds less than his Dante run. With two shoes lost in the race, that looks dubious to me. Fifth home, Third Realm, was given a figure 6lbs short of his Lingfield trial win but when a horse suffers a turnaround of more than 13 lengths from a previous race, I think it is more realistic that part of that is one horse improving and the other part is that one has under-performed quite a chunk. I think that up 15 lbs and down 6 lbs is a biased way of explaining a 21 lbs turnaround and is not really justified as the bigger horse whooshing past the smaller horse four weeks later. I suspect Third Realm has run a fair bit below his previous run and the stable had a pretty shocking effort in the Oaks. Time will tell us, but I think plenty ran way below form in the Derby and I suspect they performed to a lower level than the RPR assessor has given them. Particularly with the circumstances regarding key form line Hurricane Lane.
Ryan Moore stopped riding at the 2F pole and allowed Bolshoi Ballet to come home in his own time, so clearly he can't be used to rate the race. Third Realm failed to handle the track, was very awkward coming down the hill and lost his position when the leaders quickened. At least Atzeni could be bothered to ride him out to the line. I think Hurricane Lane is the one to rate the race on - I think he ran his race and stayed all the way to the line but the winner had flown - the loss of shoes wouldn't have helped but also might not have been a major hinderance. Mojo Star has clearly improved for the step up in trip and let's not forget his Newbury conqueror, Manobo, absolutely sluiced up at Kempton the other day despite falling out of the stalls. I suspect the first 3 will stay at 12 furlongs (and maybe go further) but plenty of those behind will be dropping back in trip. I can see how the handicapper has pieced the race together and, as you say, time will tell whether it was a 123 performance from Adayar. He beat a very useful animal in 3rd and I think the 2nd horse has really improved for the step up in trip - he certainly won't be going off at 50/1 next time.
Once again, it just proves that those who work out these ratings are pretty clueless as to how good a horse his. They literally "work out" ratings based on who beat what by how many lengths. As I have said before, we will only know a horse's true capability when it can't get any better. For young/lightly raced horses, any rating based on what they have done so far is not a true reflection of how good they can be; it only proves they are at least that good. Adayar, for example, hasn't "improved" by 16lbs. The handicappers simply based their calculations based on what the horse did in each of his races. And that is all they can do because they calculate the ratings on the best information they have. One would assume that horses are trained to be at their best for Group 1 races. They are not machines and may perform below their best but I think it is reasonable to assume that at least some of them will, the winner being the most likely to have done so. I would then look at Group 1 races over the same distance, at the same meeting, especially those with older, more exposed horse, and try to explain the differences in times. There usually are reasons, but when taking them into account and allowing for reasonable margins of error, We might get a better idea of the performance. With advanced technology they should be able to calculate the distance each horse runs in a race and that could help to refine ratings to some extent. There must be ways of at least verifying times of Group 1 races in different years in recent times. There doesn't seem to be much work on comparing performance at different tracks, taking account of going, distance actually run and time taken. There is a long way to go before handicapping can be even close to being reliable. If handicapping was accurate, all handicaps would end in dead heats and all Group races could be predicted by simply using ORs and calculating the difference in lengths between each horse
The Derby and Oaks is a new test for all the horses running in them, most coming in off falsely run, small field trials with half fit non triers and inexperienced horses not settling etc. Even the Guineas horses who have run at G1 level are stepping up half a mile to a completely different test. The form is established in these races, although the potential for false races still exists like we seen with Serpentines Derby, they will more often than not be truly run at this level. Think the last few years is also showing that vast majority just dont have a prayer of outrunning their pedigrees at the distance, most of the field are non stayers due to the 8-10f focus on breeding. You pretty much need a Galileo line to have any chance now. Mystery Angel managed to run 2nd despite a hopeless pedigree, handling the ground and course was probably responsible for getting her that position, the Oaks was a 1 horse race and the winning margin is massively flattering to Snowfall but shes obviously the best 3yo filly around despite the Oaks non event.
Varian on Zeyadaah "did not stay the trip on the good to soft going and would prefer a quicker surface" The Tamayuz filly wouldnt stayed on any ground, and how can he say she would prefer a quicker surface after her Montrose win on the heaviest ground of the season beating confirmed mud lover Mystery Angel. They all talk a load of pish.
Megallan did nothing for the Dante form in France on Sunday. He was only 12th and beaten 10 lengths. There was nothing there to suggest that he really improved 5lbs out of the blue in the Dante, as the official handicapper ascertained that he had. The race Manobo won at Kempton was a Class 5 affair and he was 4/11 Fav against a real rag-tag bunch. I can't see that as a solid yardstick myself. With so many clearly not staying, it is hard to say with much certainty how close to their best they ran. I just feel there is scope for this race to have been overrated. It will be interesting to see how High Definition runs next time but both Hurricane Lane and Megallan ran below their Dante RPRs of 114 and 113, with runs ranked 111 and 99 this weekend. I would imagine most backers would have expected Hurricane Lane to exceed his Dante performance, given the longer trip and the fact that it was only his 4th career start. He hasn't done that though and most times it is seen as a negative when a horse loses a shoe, never mind two.
Losing a shoe, or two, is not something that can be assessed in lengths. It depends on the circumstances in which the shoe(s) came off and the surface. Which shoe(s) came off could have a bearing. What is most likely to have an affect is if an injury of some kind resulted (bearing in mind these shoes are nailed on). I have no idea but I would imagine (assuming the horse was not hurt as a result of the loss) that the loss of both back shoes would have little or no effect at all as some horses that have a tendency to overreach don't wear them anyhow. I guess the best way to assess the effect, if any, is to watch the race in slow motion and see if you can detect any change in action and/ or ask the jockey if he felt any change
Having spoken to Amanda, there would definitely be an initial "shock" reaction which would lose a split second, possibly more, and thereafter it could cause a slight imbalance which could be more significant on a turn? Depending on the surface it the effect could be minimal to significant. I think my final sentence is probably correct
