Varian had not a clue, his least fancied horse finished fourth Zeyadaah his most fancied horse second to last ,Teona in-between. It is also worth noting that O'Brien suggested on interview that Snowfall needed top of the ground. What happened? Snowfall routed the field by 16 lengths, on soft ground! Sometimes trainers are damned if the do and damned if they don't.
Very impressive win by Snowfall. Have to say it was a brave decision by Mystery Angel's owners to supplement her. If you believe Dettori they were going too fast at the start of the race, but this filly was always up in the van. What does that say about the rest? Well done to Boughey and Mystery Angel.
Not been around properly to post this - Times for the Oaks versus previous runnings - Time (secs) Going Official Going Horse 154.0599976 Good Good Love 154.1300049 Good To Firm Good Enable 154.8899994 Good To Firm Good Taghrooda 155.2799988 Good Good Sariska 155.4100037 Good Good Ouija Board 155.7700043 Good To Firm Good Snow Fairy 156.0899963 Good Good Anapurna 156.6999969 Good Good To Firm Imagine 156.8899994 Good Good Look Here 157.4100037 Good Good Qualify 157.7100067 Good Good Alexandrova 158.0700073 Good Good Casual Look 158.6799927 Good Good Was 159 Good Good Eswarah 160.3800049 Good To Soft Good To Soft Light Shift 160.3899994 Good To Soft Soft Forever Together 161.7299957 Good Good Dancing Rain 162 Good To Soft Good To Soft Talent 162.6600037 Soft Good To Soft Minding 162.6699982 Soft Good To Soft Snowfall 163.1100006 Good To Soft Good To Soft Love Divine 164.5200043 Soft Soft Kazzia The time being almost exactly the same as Minding's win is very interesting, given that Minding managed to do that despite being badly hampered and on what looks to be very similar ground. That would suggest to me that Snowfall performance wasn't quite what it seemed on the day, and was probably a case of a moderate field rather than a superstar filly. If you look at the same comparisons for the Coronation - Time (secs) Going Official Going Horse 153.3399963 Good To Firm Good Highland Reel 153.4199982 Good To Firm Good Fame And Glory 153.7599945 Good Good To Firm Pether's Moon 153.9400024 Good Good Defoe 154.5200043 Good Good To Firm St Nicholas Abbey 154.8600006 Good Good Cirrus Des Aigles 155.6799927 Good Good Warrsan 155.9600067 Good Good Warrsan 156.0500031 Good Good To Firm Mutafaweq 156.8300018 Good Good Soldier of Fortune 156.9799957 Good Good Yeats 157 Good Good Ask 157.1799927 Good Good St Nicholas Abbey 157.6399994 Good Good Shirocco 157.7599945 Good Good St Nicholas Abbey 158.4900055 Good To Soft Soft Cracksman 160.8200073 Good To Soft Good To Soft Scorpion 161.6300049 Good To Soft Good To Soft Daliapour 162.2299957 Soft Good To Soft Pyledriver 163.5399933 Good To Soft Good To Soft Postponed 165.0099945 Soft Soft Boreal Pyledriver time doesn't look particularly special but he did a faster time than Postponed managed in the 2016 renewal (same year as Minding race) which suggests that comparisons between those two years are quite relevant. 1 1/2 seconds difference in favour of Pyledriver compared to almost the same times of the Oaks winners suggests that either Pyledriver is much better than Postponed or that the ground in 2016 was slightly worse and the performance of Minding was probably a good few lengths better than Snowfall. I would go with the latter to the most degree, I think Snowfall was impressive but I don't think it was exceptional.
Very interesting times comparison Nass. What impressed me most about Snowfall was her turn of foot - she put about 10 lengths between herself and Santa Barbara over the penultimate furlong. The sectionals from the ITV stream show the last 2 furlongs of the Oaks at 11:53 and 12:01 and for the Derby 11:38 and 11:96. I think it is clear the ground was riding much quicker on Saturday (the average race times back this up) so those were 2 serious last furlongs from the filly on that ground. It would be very interesting to see the last 2 furlong sectionals from the Coronation Cup.
it makes interesting reading and for me it shows that she was able to quicken after a slow race, and the others couldn’t find anything. The fact Pyledriver was faster in the middle of the race suggests that the oaks may well have been falsely run and the form is questionable. I like the filly but I do think she is going to be overbet from now on given how easily she won a race that I don’t think is all as it seemed.
Agreed from a betting perspective she will be awfully short, although I guess it depends where they go. Irish Oaks? They could be brave and go Irish Derby or even King George with her.
Now there is going to be trouble as we may agree on something. I cannot be having the Oaks form as reliable because I think they went too fast (uphill) in the early part of the race then slowed in the middle section down round Tattenham Corner. I think that is why most of the fancied fillies folded with a quarter of a mile to go, so Snowfall was running away from fillies that were stopping. I think we will see Snowfall next in the Irish Oaks as O'Brien has a habit of keeping the fillies to their own sex until the autumn. Pyledriver’s performance in the Coronation Cup does stand up to better scrutiny from a form perspective. The similarity between the times really only tells us that Snowfall put up a good performance in an unsatisfactory race. Later in the season, I wonder if she might be seen as a St Leger candidate if the Derby winner targets the Arc and Coolmore have a better Arc option on the scene.
Expecting a big run from Twisted Reality tomorrow in the Ribblesdale Each Way @ 10-1 [Paddy Power] 4 places
