2021 OAKS PREVIEW: ZEYAADAH'S CLAIMS ARE CLEAR please log in to view this image By Tony McFadden — published 1st June 2021 Tony McFadden outlines the Timeform view on Friday's Oaks at Epsom. We'll be lucky if we see a performance as spectacular as the one Love produced in last season's Oaks, though there is plenty of depth to this year's renewal and it has the makings of a cracking contest. Love went into the Oaks 6 lb clear of her rivals on Timeform's figures following her authoritative success in the 1000 Guineas, and she raised her game further at Epsom, bolting up by nine lengths to give trainer Aidan O'Brien an eighth win in the race. There is no such standout contender on ratings this year, however, as the top five on the figures are split by only 3 lb. O'Brien is responsible for two of those fillies with Santa Barbara (weight-adjusted rating: 126p), who was an encouraging fourth in the 1000 Guineas, and Snowfall (123), who arrives on the back of a dominant success in the Musidora Stakes. Santa Barbara may have been a beaten favourite in the 1000 Guineas but she emerged with plenty of credit on just her second start. She had created an excellent impression when winning a Curragh maiden on her only start at two and was clearly impressing on the gallops at Ballydoyle based on how much ante-post support she attracted for the 1000 Guineas. Her inexperience was evident at Newmarket but she was beaten little more than a length and ought to improve significantly for the experience. It's also worth noting that Santa Barbara was considered the pick of the paddock by Timeform's reporter, who described her as a big, strong filly, so her physique also offers encouragement that there is plenty more to come. Santa Barbara was a couple of places behind Saffron Beach (125) in the 1000 Guineas so Jane Chapple-Hyam's filly cannot be dismissed. However, on pedigree, there is more of a doubt about Saffron Beach staying a mile and a half. The Cheshire Oaks is another important piece of form and the first two home at Chester, Dubai Fountain (124) and Zeyaadah (124p), look sure to relish this sort of stamina test. Dubai Fountain had the edge in the Cheshire Oaks, but she was in receipt of 3 lb from Zeyaadah and was also better positioned in a race run at a stop-start gallop. Zeyaadah lost her unbeaten record but enhanced her reputation, impressing with how readily she put distance between herself and the third when getting in the clear. That continued her pattern of run-by-run progress and offered no hint that she has reached her limit. Dubai Fortune is tough and straightforward - as is typical of horses hailing from the Mark Johnston yard - so it is no formality that the form will be reversed, but the Timeform view is that Zeyaadah was a shade unlucky at Chester, emerged as the best filly at the weights and her lightly-raced profile offers plenty of upside. Of those towards the top of the weight-adjusted ratings, Snowfall (123) is the one who is readily opposable at the prices. She seemingly had her limitations exposed at pattern level last season, but she was an authoritative winner of the Musidora on her return at York last month. Timeform's reporter noted that she had done well physically over the winter, while the step up in trip was also a plausible cause of improvement, but it's hard to shake the feeling that she was flattered by getting an easy lead at York and is unlikely to have such favourable circumstances here. She doesn't look open to the same level of improvement as Santa Barbara or Zeyaadah and makes little appeal at 9/2. It wouldn't be at all surprising were Teona (118p) to reverse the Musidora form. Teona was only third at York, four and a quarter lengths behind Snowfall, but she can have her effort marked up as she was too keen in the early stages and also wandered around under pressure, showing her inexperience on just her third start. The form of her maiden win at Newcastle has worked out really well and it's notable that she was heavily supported into second favourite for the Oaks before the Musidora, which suggests she was showing something special at home (Roger Varian also has Zeyaadah in his yard). It's possible that Teona might find a test like this coming too soon in her development, but she is an exciting propect and a big run can't be ruled out. Divinely (111+) has come in for plenty of money in recent days and is now a general 10/1 shot having been 50/1 recently. She is a sister to Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Found, so is bred to excel over middle distances, and she wouldn't have been suited by the steady gallop when fourth in the Lingfield Oaks Trial on the only occasion she has tackled a suitable trip. She is surely capable of better granted a stiffer test of stamina, but a huge leap forward is required to win this. In fact, it would be a surprise were any of the fillies who contested the Lingfield Oaks Trial - which was won by Sherbet Lemon (114p) from Save A Forest (113) and Ocean Road (113p) - good enough here as that looked like a weak affair. Conclusion The key pieces of form are the 1000 Guineas and the Cheshire Oaks. It would be little surprise were Santa Barbara, a filly who has seemingly always been held in the highest regard at Ballydoyle, to improve on her promising effort in the Guineas, but she looks short enough at 9/4 against other promising fillies who have achieved a similar level. Zeyaadah is also a cracking prospect and 6/1 looks fair for a runner with such rock-solid credentials.
Zeyaadah now has stall 1 to go with the pedigree concerns. Visually she has always looked like she wanted further but that might just be her running style and I dont think backing Tamayuz offspring in Epsom classics will be a profitable long term strategy. Id actually be pretty concerned if she continues to hold 3rd position in the market over Teona and im already lukewarm on her, im sweet on her being a top class filly at some point but being ready to win the Oaks on Friday im not convinced.
Ive looked at 12f races at Epsom with 10 or more runners since 1988 166 horses ran from stall 1 producing only 2 winners, one of them being Oath in the Derby, 62 of them started under 10/1 the data is pretty damning of it being a disadvantage in a big field although nothing would have stopped Love from winning from stall 1 last year, if you have a ton in hand its irrelevant but that doesnt look to be the case for Zeyaadah and with her running style shes probably going to need plenty of luck to get a good trip from way back on the inside
This has to be one of the strangest renewals of the Oaks in recent times. The betting is skewed by a favourite that has no real right to the position in the betting, based purely on reaction to comments made by the trainer. Santa Barbara should be more suited to middle distances on pedigree but offers little evidence to go on with regards to whether she will be suited by the track, definitely get the trip or potential race tactics. She looks like a lay opportunity on the exchanges. While the favourite was finishing fourth in the 1000 Guineas, a race fit Saffron Beach was chasing home Mother Earth. She has never run anywhere but HQ so it is impossible to gauge whether the track will give her issues but her pedigree suggests this may be a trip too far. Mystery Angel caused a minor surprise winning the Pretty Polly, where two more fancied rivals from big yards disappointed, but she was subsequently a well beaten fourth in the Musidora Stakes. The first four from the Musidora would have renewed acquaintances but the form from the Knavesmire probably should be ignored. The winner Snowfall clearly benefitted from Ryan Moore’s jockeyship. None of the seven wanted to make the running so he set the fractions to suit himself and then cleared away in the straight to win without seeing an opponent. Given her pedigree and abundance of stamina, Noon Star’s jockey Richard Kingscote rode a questionable race over what was surely too short a trip but she misses the rematch with a blood disorder. The well fancied Teona continued to show a trait of not settling and this would be a worry with the hustle and bustle of Epsom. Having been well beaten by Noon Star at Wetherby, Sherbet Lemon won something of a farcical Lingfield Oaks Trial that effectively turned into a sprint. The first four home were covered by less than two lengths and all line up again. As they should all handle the track, it remains to be seen which will come out the best as Save A Forest and Ocean Road were held up whilst Divinely was nearer the pace. Save A Forest was having her fourth start of the campaign whilst Divinely had won a Group 3 amongst five juvenile starts, so the one with most scope would appear to be Ocean Road, making her seasonal bow after two appearances in 2020. Technique was second last but previously was just touched off in the Blue Riband Trial so the track is not an issue but does she need quick ground? Dubai Fountain won the Cheshire Oaks having had the run of the race but she was receiving 3lb from runner-up Zeyaadeh, who was held up and came too late with her challenge. Expectation ought to be that the Varian filly will reverse the form at levels and she probably has the most improvement to come after just three juvenile starts compared to the Johnston filly’s seven. Maiden La Joconde was a well beaten fourth on the Roodeye and may be at Epsom to ensure there is no hanging around. The well related Willow only managed a maiden race win from four two year old efforts and would clearly need to step up on her third in the Blue Wind when joint favourite last time. Whilst I think Ocean Road looked the most likely one to follow out of the Lingfield race, she may not stay in a truly run race so I am going to have to rely on my jinx jockey to change tactics on ZEYAADEH because if she is out with the washing at Tattenham Corner this could go to one of the O’Brien team. I hope the ijut does not try that old trick of tracking the favourite...
I think if Saffron Beach acts on the track that she will go very close. She will carry my EW shillings.
I quite like Zyaadeh but there is little point in me selecting a horse ridden by Crowley and she has the dreaded 1 stall to overcome. Also it's not certain that she will reverse placings with Dubai Fountain because the latter did win comfortably that day. I can't fathom out which one will be better suited by the conditions and extra half a furlong uphill. Dubai Fountain has clocked some decent times on a sound surface so shouldn't be inconvenienced by the ground. At the odds I think I just prefer Dubai Fountain but not confident at all. I'm not even convinced that the fav will be suited by the extra half a mile as it looked as though Saffron Beach finished the stronger in the the 1,000 Gns and her (SB) pedigree isn't shouting stamina, apart from Ribot not too far back. That it is a tricky race for betting purposes is an understatement
Early betting suggesting Zeyaadah is Varians number one despite all the hype for months about Teona, that is par for the course with Varian, massive gambling stable and they like to put the punters away. Id expect Teona to probably end up out to double figures tomorrow. Dubai Fountain finally getting some respect in the market. I have 3 running for me but ill be surprised if im collecting on this race. Japan my bet tomorrow, decent value at 3/1.
What makes horseracing – difference of opinions. I wrote my piece a couple of days ago and then had to fiddle with the wording when Noon Star was taken out. I would have chanced her because she is Midday’s daughter and she was given no chance at York. I thought Crowley rode a bad race at Chester. He held his filly up far too long on a track that better suits being on the pace but no discredit to Franny Norton who showed more tactical nous on Dubai Fountain. So clearly Dubai Fountain will be up with the pace – but if the pace is too hot, will Norton drop off it or could a couple of them end up setting the race up for those sat behind? The ones that bothered me most about not staying were Ocean Road and Saffron Beach, the former technically doing the distance at Lingfield but that was really just a half mile sprint. It will be annoying if Zeyaadeh is beaten by stablemate Teona as I see that they have put a hood on her, maybe having reached the conclusion that she has the ability but not the necessary concentration.
Absolute nonsense! For a trainer who learned his trade under the late Michael Jarvis he would have realised that there was no need to make ends meet by laying a horse out to execute a betting coup. His owners include Shadwell stud, Chevley park Stud, Obaid Maktoum, and king power racing. These are very wealthy owners who are only interested in obtaining 'black type' for their horses which, in turn will enhance their stud values.
Youd think it was nonsense but major market moves suggest otherwise, clearly a gambling stable. Teona has been layed out to 14s on betfair from 13/2 a few days ago. Ill give the game up if she wins after a drift like that from this stable. Varian was on the tv there, asked for his best chance, didnt give one while the market clearly telling us they know Zeyadaah is their only chance, total contempt for punters.
Looks like Snowfall is the only decent filly about this season. Shows how irrelevant 2yo form is. The guineas form was absolute garbage, the musidora was obviously the best trial providing the 1 2, for some reason Teona didn't run 1 yard, and the market knew. Got to presume Noon Star would have finished 2nd had she run.
She was electric in the musidora at 10f, the sectionals were top class, does everything right and quickens on any ground. Nothing around to heat her at 10f or 12f, i was worried about the extra distance after the speed she showed at York but clearly not an issue.
It's difficult to imagine that the ground got faster during the day. So what we have here is a 3yo filly running the same C&D in 0.44secs slower than the Coronation Cup, at level weights In between, we had a 5yo handicapper (receiving 2lbs) running the 10f - Time: 2m 12.46s (slow by 6.86s). That means it took half a minute more to run the extra 2f. Presumably the first 2 fur of the 12f course, being uphill, accounts for that? Snowfall now 5/1 fav for the Arc
