Thursday's Meetings Worcester N/H 8 Races 1:00-4:45p.m. Ripon Flat 7 Races 1:55-5:15p.m. Haydock Flat 7 Races 2:15-5:35p.m. Limerick(E) N/H 8 Races 4:20-8:10p.m. Carlisle(E) Flat 7 Races 5:30-8:50p.m. Sandown(E) Flat 6 Races 5:45-8:30p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Place a bet in the Virtual Betting shop here Good Luck
The National Stakes at Sandown has thrown up some decent speedsters over the years. It seemed to be farmed by the Hannon family at one stage and they had the "Pocket Rocket" Lyric Fantasy winning it back on the day and more recently Tiggy Wiggy. This year Richard Hannon has sent something of a no-hoper in Hotline Bling, who is 12/1 and on the drift, suggesting that the family record of 12 wins since 1992, when the Pocket Rocket started the ball rolling, will not be added to this year. The favourite is unsurprisingly Navello, who was 8th on debut for George Boughey but quickly came forward from that to record a hat-trick. He hacked up by six lengths last time and he seems pretty progressive based on that being a Class 2 contest but I don't really trust the form myself. Navello won easily in the Lily Agnes but the other 3 in the 4 runner affair all ran poorly. They were below their previous best by a fair margin and the runner up went on to run a howler, albeit when an outsider upped to Listed Class. All Navello's wins so far have been a sharp tracks and this is a stiffer test for him. He may well win but at 2/1 I have enough concerns to warrant taking him on. Chipotle is 2/2 for Eve Johnston-Houghton. He won the Brocklesby before following up in a conditions race. He has done nothing wrong but I don't think he improved much from the Brocklesby in winning a four runner affair and the runner up The Gatekeeper, was awful next time at Newbury. Choux is 1/1 for David Evans and landed a plunge when winning at Thirsk. I always raise eyebrows when these gambles come off and the favourite co-incidentally runs an abysmal race. In this instance the Fav had run to 78 and 80, before throwing in a 53 in 9th, well behind rank no-hopers. Choux could be anything but a 125/1 shot was runner-up at Thirsk and I am dubious myself. Bond Chairman has landed his sole start for Bryan Smart. The son of Kodiac wasn't cheap at 120,000 Guineas and he won nicely enough at Musselburgh last time. The ground was good then though and is soft now, plus he needs to step up a bit. Worth thinking about though at decent odds. In the end I opted for Ebro River. Ebro River is a son of Galileo Gold who was only 6th on debut but he dwelt that day and had to race in the rear. He made some headway but was hampered late on. Next time out he stepped up a fair bit in winning at Doncaster and I was surprised he managed to win because he was very green and wandered about quite a bit. He struck me as one who would do better when he learns his trade. He has won on soft and that helped tick the box for me. Hugo Palmer is in good form recently. An open race but I wanted to take one more than three times the odds of the favourite. 6.15 Sandown Ebro River 13/2
I am a little confused. One week the advice is that "future form" is pretty much irrelevant and the next week it is the reason for writing off a 2yo with form figures that read 11. I actually like CHIPOTLE and that is even brushing aside my annual assertion that the Brocklesby produces absolutely nothing year on year. The Gatekeeper who he beat rather cosily at Ascot did disappoint next time out but you have to take into consideration that it was a furlong further and he quite obviously did not see the trip out. Both Chipotle and The Gatekeeper still hold Coventry entries. If Chipotle wins the National he will be cut but whilst I think he wins tonight I will be surprised if he was quite good enough to win again at Royal Ascot.
The odds have to be taken into account when making a selection. If Chipotle had been 13/2 and Ebro River 4/1 when I made my choice, I may well have gone the other way. Chipotle's last race was more or less a match, with the other two runners 17/2 and 40/1, so although the time was apparently good, it doesn't give us a lot of a handle on the form strength. Any unbeaten horse needs to be respected but they all have the 2/1 Fav to worry about from a stable banging in 2YO winners and the way I framed the race was in taking on that favourite and looking for the best price about a horse who could improve and have a chance in the race. We all look at races differently and we will always find different conclusions drawn. Choux is a non-runner now, which is one for the 7 runners each-way conspiracy theorists. Before she came out Ebro River was generally 4/1 and 7/2, so he has been well supported from 13/2. Doesn't mean he will win of course. Chipotle is also well backed and you can see why, as an unexposed colt. Navello will probably go out there and piss up now but good luck with Chipotle.
Yes, excellent overnight analysis. The Lily Agnes form always did look a bit fragile, but I think tonight's race is more reliable, at least as regards the winner. Well done.
Choux didn't run but I think she would have had to be good to have beaten Ebro River this evening. He was slowly away but made up ground into a good position. I wasn't sure that his initial move was decisive but he seemed to go on again and then hung in front. If he had kept straight I think he would have won by five lengths or so. Not sure where he goes next but if he were mine I would be aiming for the Norfolk Stakes at Ascot. If it comes up soft there it will be no problem for him but might hinder others. Looks the best prospect Palmer has had for a while. Chipotle never really looked like it when hitting the closing stages tonight but the favourite did manage to get third place. After reviewing Chipotle's effort, I feel he may not have been suited by track and going tonight and I may well give him another go on a faster surface. I doubt another furlong in the Coventry would be his bag. I felt the jockey was holding him together as if he knew the horse was starting to empty. Not sure why Hannon sent Hotline Bling here and he must be wondering that himself after a dismal showing in last place.
Its a pretty stiff five at Sandown. Always worth remembering. Well done with the winner, head and shoulders above the rest.
