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Daily Racing Thread Friday 14th. May 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, May 13, 2021.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    <laugh> jaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrsssssttttttt done it again
     
    #21
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  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Francesca looking hot today
     
    #22
  3. PNkt

    PNkt Well-Known Member

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    Derab (half bro to Enable) has won at Newmarket this afternoon, last time out he was second to Snow Lantern. The 3rd and 7th placed horses in that Newbury race have also won since, so it looks like it might have been a decent race.
     
    #23
    Ron likes this.
  4. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    3rd.
     
    #24
  5. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Derab hosed up, which made Snow Lantern's effort all the more disappointing. Having said that, today's race was more or less a match according to the betting and perhaps the newcomers were not up to much and main rival Fireworks could just be disappointing. 850,000 Euros and he could only recoup £2000 of that outlay today. Another 424 runs like that and the owners will break even. Fireworks was a damp squib today.

    Derab will no doubt start at skinny odds now that he is sure to be aimed at something better.
     
    #25
    Ron likes this.
  6. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    Giovanni Change 3rd. Johnbb NR.
     
    #26
  7. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Was the best maiden you will see this season, thats for sure, said at the time it looked Group 3 level, was 8L faster on the clock than the other division where 2 unexposed types pulled well clear.

    Well done to Snow Lantern team getting their fabled black type, skip the Guineas only to run with the choke out all the way in a Listed race at York, she wouldnt have beaten Fantastic Fox or Derab today.
     
    #27
  8. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Thats twice this week you have completely ignored a horse pulling its chance away, not sure if that was to back up your pre race opinions or you genuinely didnt see them fighting the jockeys for 3/4 of the races, if anything Snow Lantern finishing 3rd in a listed race after running like that actually enhanced Derabs claims.

    Its sometimes like you only look purely at the result on paper, everything ran to the RPR on paper, thats the facts and nothing else matters. Horses not settling is pretty basic stuff that has to be accounted for when judging a race and isnt reflected in the RPR.

    You will see that the RPR will likely be higher for Snow Lantern today than her last run, in your world that means she improved from her last race, in reality it was a significantly worse performance due to her running so inefficiently.
     
    #28
    Last edited: May 14, 2021
  9. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Each to their own. Sorry your horse was **** today.
     
    #29
  10. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    yh thats what I thought... I had no interest in Snow Lantern today, I backed her for the Guineas and done ok on the race in the end

    you seem invested in an opinion about that Newbury race though, and after your horse finished last in Snow Lanterns race, you tried to claim your opinion was correct, ignoring completely how Snow Lantern pulled her chance away, only for your logic to be blown to pieces when Derab hacked up an hour later

    I am also invested in an opinion on the race, if Fantastic Fox turns up in a handicap off 91 ill be having my biggest bet of the season, but I wouldnt completely brush over something so obvious to keep my opinion, I am far more open to changing my opinions than you

    you like to pick and choose, I remember we had a discussion a few years back about the merit of Armory's 110 rating, hes rated 120 now, but I see you didnt mention one of the most bizarre ratings in recent history, 115 for High Definition, wasnt worthy of comment for whatever reason

    the BC Juvenile Turf horses kept winning G1 races year after year and you kept changing your criteria to keep your negative opinion of the race, went from you didnt like the race down to you didnt like it for the Guineas, now that Mother Earth won the Guineas, maybe you will go down to not liking it for just the 2000 Guineas next year?
     
    #30

  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I don't think you can just assess a race based on winners coming from it in the future. I feel you have to assess what they actually achieved in winning their race.

    In the case of Snow Lantern's winning race the 3rd horse went on to win a class 5 maiden at Hamilton at odds of 1/5 Fav from very modest horses. The one who was 7th won a class 5 Novice at Salisbury in what must have been the luckiest win of the season because the 5/4 Fav unseated rider and the 11/4 2nd Fav was pulled up 3F out having stumbled and lost his action.

    Not trying to teach anyone how to suck eggs here but surely perspective is required on how much the form is worth, other than just noting that winners came from a race.

    Derab has won easily today but it was a class 4 Novice race where the second Fav came in with a 77 RPR and the 3rd in the betting was 11/1. He's as short as 16/1 for the Derby now but he won't carry my money because Derby winners tend not to have come from winning a class 4 race on their 3rd start

    As I have said, each to their own. Time will tell us how good a race it really was as the season progresses.
     
    #31
  12. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    What are you trying to prove?

    Opinions are always different and it seems petty trying to go back and mention times I have been incorrect. That's pathetic in my opinion.

    I said all along that High Definition was a ridiculous price for the Derby based on what he achieved last year.

    Woohoo, shock horror as 4YO horse has higher rating than it did when it was two.

    Derab won what looked a match in the betting and the Haggas horse ran below expectations, barely holding on for second place from a newcomer. I assume you will be backing the Class 4 winner for the Derby now then?

    None of this matters a toss to me. I have my opinion and you have yours. You are always the one having a go at me though and it always seems to be after one of your horses has performed badly. That's a childish caper. Man up and get on with it for Christ's sake.
     
    #32
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  13. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    No I wont be backing Derab for the Derby, I said the other day I would have taken the 50/1 for the Derby if he had went for the 10f listed race tomorrow, i thought he would run there if Gosden was even considering the Derby, I dont see him stepping up to 12f any time soon after today.
     
    #33
  14. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    It seems that I need to re-evaluate my whole way of reading form. One of my first ports of call has always been, how many winners have come out of that race. Its one of the things that I love the ATR site for!
     
    #34
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