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Daily Racing Thread Thursday 13th. May 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, May 12, 2021.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    #1
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  2. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Finally we get to see High Definition and this is the acid test for the long time ante-post favourite who was only usurped from that position by stablemate Bolshoi Ballet recently.

    I don't think the bare form is anywhere near enough to have warranted High Definition's odds coming into this season but outside of Bolshoi Ballet every other contender seems to have faded on closer examination. The feature of High Definition last season was the strong way he finished off his races and he looked like a horse crying out for 10 to 12 Furlongs. Being by Galileo he could easily have improved over the winter and he will need to have done so in order to win the Derby.

    The off-putting thing with High Definition in the Dante is that he had been due to run at Lingfield but was ruled out due to a bad blood result. It is a short enough rime after that event to be confident that he is cherry ripe now and he could well need this race.

    Alenquer misses the race for William Haggas, who already has Mohaafeth prominent in the Epsom betting. That leaves High Definition 6/4 Fav with Hurricane Lane and Gear Up sharing 2nd Fav at about 6/1. John Gosden's Megallan is being supported at 15/2, as is Jim Bolger's Flying Visit at 9/1.

    Megallan is a good place to start. He made a promising debut last season but never really went on from it. He has continued to look short of top class and his two runs this season have failed to pan out. It would be tragic if this colt were to win a Dante. I don't see him as any better than a 100 rated colt. Having said that a 90 rated filly won the Musidora.

    Flying Visit represents the Guineas winning trainer Jim Bolger but he looked desperately exposed last season and this will be his 13th career start already. I feel he owes his support to running behind Bolshoi Ballet last time but the Bolshoi Ballet we saw that day was not the one who hacked up in the Derrinstown. I think it would be a big mistake in buying into the idea that Flying Visit has made the same improvement the Derby favourite has since.

    Hurricane Lane is unbeaten and he did me a good turn last time when I had him at 6/1. He looked as if he simply outstayed Maximal in a 10F Newbury race last time and although that Stoute horse ran well when second in the Dee Stakes I expected to see Hurricane Lane in the Vase or the Lingfield Derby trial because I felt he needs 12F. If he were to win this he would be a player in the Derby for sure but I worry that he has the pace for a Dante.

    Royal Champion was 3rd last time and the 4th that day, Youth Spirit, went on to win the Chester Vase. I thought that was a poor Vase though and Royal Champion was 6 lengths in arrears of the second horse last time.

    The rest don't appeal to me, so my selection for the Dante was Gear Up. The Mark Johnston colt won a Novice race at York before returning over the same course and distance to land the Acomb Stakes. He was then a bit disappointing when only 4th of 5 to New Mandate in the Royal Lodge but perhaps met speedier types that day and he made up for it when upped in trip to 10F for a Group 1 at Saint Cloud when narrowly winning a race where Bolshoi Ballet was 5th and recent French Derby trial winner Makaloun was 3rd. I thought that gave Gear Up a chance, as a Group 1 winner running in a Group 2 and any further rain will not bother him.

    3.10 York Gear Up 6/1

    Having backed High Definition for the Derby before he ran in last season's Beresford Stakes at odds of 25/1, I won't be disappointed if he beats Gear Up in winning this.
     
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  3. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    The Dante has attracted a sizeable field this year and the betting is quite open because of the question marks against so many of them. Hopefully it is not as inconclusive as the Musidora.

    Most of the issues around High Definition are nothing to do with his racecourse appearances, winning the Beresford Stakes to be unbeaten in two starts, but ones that he has missed due to scoping badly. Frankel colt Hurricane Lane also comes here unbeaten after beating Maximal in a conditions race last time over this distance, so he has the scope to be better than the form.

    The Sandown Classic Trial form of Alenquer does not look so good now with Adayar and Yibir both disappointing since; and Belloccio was only fifth. Neither of Megallan’s two efforts this term have been on turf and he was out with the washing in the Futurity Trophy on his last juvenile start making him difficult to fancy. Royal Champion was having only his second race when beaten a long way third in the Feilden Stakes but is clearly well regarded and looks one to watch. The lacklustre effort of his stablemate yesterday tempers enthusiasm.

    It would be foolish to write off Ballysax runner up Flying Visit after the subsequent effort of the winner and Jim Bolger has not sent him here just for a day out at an each-way price.

    GEAR UP did little wrong in four juvenile starts, winning the Acomb here on his second start before losing his unbeaten tag when two-and-a-half lengths fourth in the Royal Lodge. He subsequently regained the winning thread collecting the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, where Derrinstown winner Bolshoi Ballet was fifth; however, a good sized blanket would have covered the whole field. His fitness should not be a question. Whether he is good enough is to be ascertained.
     
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  4. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Gear Up 6/1 looks a decent bet, 2 from 2 at the track and proven on soft ground, beat some decent horses in that French G1 and the price is surely too big in this field, especially with the doubts about the favs preparation.
     
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  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Uncle Bryn is the bet for me, thought he was given an unfortunate ask by being drawn wide and being asked to pick up on the turn for home at Epsom yet travelled like the best horse in that race and I think we can forgive him the raw result as he was keen early and had that wide run.

    He should get cover today and I think the track at York will be much more to his liking than the turns and camber of Epsom.

    Traditionally I would be looking for a Derby pedigree from the Guineas in this race, but we haven't got any runners from that race and that for me makes it a much more open and trappy race than it has been in many previous seasons.
     
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  6. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Frankel's lad Hurricane Lane for me in the Dante
     
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  7. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    I have a bet 33/1 e/w for The Derby, still with that price in Lads and Boyle.
     
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  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    The main problem (for me) with the Dante is that it isn't 12f. So, depending on how the race is run, it's very possible the future Derby winner could get beaten here. There are horses entered who stand a much better chance at 10f than they will in the Derby. I'm hoping that the ground will find them out and we see a good Derby trial
     
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  9. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    York
    13,40 Autumn Flight 14/1 e/w six places con various bookies.
    16,50 Ben Lily 9/2

    Perth
    14,30 Celtic Flames 12/1 e/w four places with PP and Betfair, 11/1 others.

    Fontwell
    18,30 Law Of Gold 7/2
     
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  10. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Just reading that yesterday French champion jockey Pierre-Charles Boudot was arrested, accused of rape and bailed for 50,000 Euros. The accusations relate to an incident at a Cagnes sur Mer party on 17th February. Also arrested was jockey Pierre Bazire pertaining to the same incident.

    Boudot was supposed to be riding St Mark’s Basilica for Aidan O’Brien in Sunday’s Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas). Although his riding license has not been suspended, will he be available to ride? So who will be riding St Mark’s Basilica in the Poulains on Sunday? Declarations are tomorrow.
     
    #10

  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I liked Matthew Flinders last season and felt he had a good future. He didn't quite get to where I expected but looks progressive nonetheless. He ran well on his return this year and finished best of those horses who were held up off the pace that day. The Ed Walker stable are going along OK and William Buick is on board, so I will be surprised if he doesn't go well as a horse with more progress in him. Brunch and Johan were others with good chances but Matthew Flinders got my vote.

    2.40 York Matthew Flinders 9/2

    Over at Longchamp Arc runner up In Swoop again runs in fairly modest company. Beaten in a Listed race last time when favourite, it seems odd to see a horse beaten only a neck in Europe's premier race, tackling a Grade 3 race today. The main opposition is the horse who beat him last time, Sublimis, who bids for a hat-trick today. The Fabre colt prevailed by 3/4 of a length last time but is 4 lbs worse off today and I don't think he is better than Group 3 at best and it will be worrying for In Swoop if he cannot get his revenge today. The Graffard horse is a shade of odds-on and I can't back him at those odds but he really should be winning this if he has any hope of going one better in the Arc this time around. Nagano Gold has a shout on official ratings, having the same 114 mark as In Swoop but I am very suspicious of his mark that went up 10 lbs for being third in the Prix Foy to Anthony Van Dyck and Stradivarius. Just a race to watch. 5.00 Longchamp
     
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  12. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    In the 3.40 York Acklam Express and Winter Power are the picks on ratings. The former has been plying his trade in Dubai and running well. He was third in a Group 1 race when 50/1 outsider and you would think he was a shoo in here in Listed class based on that but I find those Meydan races hard to rely on and the Favourite for that race, Space Blues, stank the place out on the day. More worrying is that the runner-up there, Final Song, was out with the washing at York yesterday behind Starman and I feel he is worth apposing today when considering his previous 3rd place was also behind Final Song. I see Simon Rowlands on ATR has selected him today but I feel 5F back on turf may not be ideal.

    Winter Power showed improved form to win the Cornwallis in good style last season and clearly has speed. There is a tongue-tie fitted today for whatever reason and she might just strip fitter for today's race. Tim Easterby is 1 from his last 20 runners and the one of his I did yesterday stank the place out.

    I decided to chance Dexter Belle in the hope she is destined for better things. The Kevin Ryan filly was having only her second start when she showed plenty of pace in scooting up at Pontefract. Those were lesser horses than she faces today but she destroyed her field that day and surely gas scope for more to come. The runner up from Ponty has won two handicaps since and is now rated 87, so bearing in mind that Dexter Belle beat that one 5 and a half lengths and there was another 5 and a half lengths to the third it was a promising effort from the daughter of Ajaya, who won the Gimcrack for William Haggas as a 2YO.

    3.40 York Dexter Belle 4/1
     
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  13. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    Artistic Rifles
    Hurricane Lane with an ew saver on Uncle Bryn (sorry Nass, but Frankie was quite enthused about this lad on Saturday and he's not a bad judge)
    Dexter Belle

    At the risk of hearing that scabby song, I'm 2 from 2 so far at York (late back from the doctor, I was more concerned in getting my bets on!)

    Good luck for the rest of the day peeps <ok>

    Edit: Sorry Grendel, just saw you fancied Dexter too. Cash out!
     
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  14. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Kynren doesn't win often but has a good record of placing in big fields, today was his day though. Matthew Flinders never really got into it from box 14 and had a lot to do. He did make some headway but seemed to run out of petrol and weakened disappointingly. I felt he was sure to run well today and this is not the first time he has disappointed me. Probably leave him alone now and he will pop up at a big price.
     
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  15. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    Typical!! Frankie now down-playing his previous enthusiasm for Uncle Bryn <doh>
     
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  16. dylanthomas

    dylanthomas Active Member

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    Flying Visit for me 9/1
     
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  17. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Whatever happens in the Dante, we could be seeing an Arc candidate. I'm particularly thinking of High Definition, Hurricane Lane and Uncle Bryn
     
    #17
  18. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I think Uncle Bryn has gone wrong; Hope I'm wrong
     
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  19. dylanthomas

    dylanthomas Active Member

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    Flying Visit pulled too hard. Cant predict these things. So we dust ourselves down and go on.
     
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  20. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    From the Arc perspective I think the one I would be looking at is High Definition, with Hurricane Lane a possible

    From the Derby perspective, I just don't know. Both the aforesaid will appreciate the extra 2f
     
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