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Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 12th. May 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, May 11, 2021.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    #1
  2. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The Musidora seems a match between Teona and Noon Star, although I have seen a couple of tips for Mystery Angel. Only a Philistine wouldn't want to see one of the less exposed fillies winning it though and I felt it was a below par Pretty Polly that the Boughey filly won at Newmarket on what was her 4th start of this year.

    I hope to see the top two put daylight between themselves and the rest to give some hope that we will have some quality in the Oaks next month.

    Teona is less exposed but sluiced up on her second start last season. She seems sure to get the Oaks trip and if she wins the Musidora I think she will be a warm favourite for Epsom.

    Noon Star has had more experience but she has improved with every race and I expect her to take another step forward today. Her comeback win was at short odds but she did it nicely and the race has worked out reasonably well. Again, a win here would see her favourite for the Oaks but perhaps not as short a Fav as Teona would be.

    I played Noon Star at 10/3 when betting opened and again at 4/1 when she drifted on the back of support for Teona. The Varian filly was Evs at one stage but looking at the betting as I write this it is 6/4 each of two on several boards.

    The tipping box is heavily with the Stoute filly, as she has twelve nominations compared to Teona with two. Tips do not mean anything though and the thinking will generally be that the "Bird in the hand" Noon Star is safer than the "Two in the bush" that Teona may well be and she could even have that third bird in there if the support she has had for the Oaks suggests is possible.

    Coming to the betting now I would probably still side with Noon Star at 6/4 but I felt she was real value at 10/3 and 4/1.

    As long as the ground stays good I thought Starman had a good chance in the 2.40 York. He was impressive over course and distance last season before failing to act on very soft ground upped to Group 1 company. The trainer explained that the horse needs good ground to get rolling and that he was just spinning without getting anywhere on very soft ground. Ed Walker seems to think Starman will have a good season as long as he gets good or better ground. At 5/1 I though he was the one to be with. Art Power looked good early last season but I thought he just found his level later in the year. Oxted struck me as perhaps a flash in the pan horse last year. Maybe I am wrong with him but he hasn't seemed the same since his wind surgery procedure.

    In the 2.10 York we have some old favourites and frequent sparring partners in the line up. I was interested in one of Tim Easterby's four runners and that is Manigordo. He ran in the Group 3 Tattersall won by Wichita when he was with Richard Hannon but cut little ice in that 2YO contest. Not much cop last season, he was gelded and moved to Tim Easterby. Pretty much hopeless when last of 11 on his first outing, he then came out and made all over 6F at Thirsk, prompting a request for an explanation of the much improved showing. It was said that the horse had stripped fitter from his first race and appreciated the drop to 6F. York should suit judged by Manigordo's last run and he could be ready to follow up from a mark of 89 in a race where many are exposed. I went win only at 12/1.

    3.10 York Noon Star (10/3 and 4/1 ante post)

    2.40 York Starman 5/1

    2.10 York Manigordo 12/1

    Good luck to everybody today.
     
    #2
  3. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Timeform ratings for the Musidora. I wonder how much that big "P" is worth

    upload_2021-5-12_1-2-37.png
     
    #3
  4. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Apparently there has been heavy rain at York and the ground is definitely going to be at least good to soft.
     
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  5. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    The interesting thing about the Musidora is that it appears to be more a race of potential that actual form. There is no contender with an official rating of 100 or more.

    The favourite Teona, a well bred daughter of Sea The Stars, has yet to race on turf but features at the upper end of the Oaks betting and comes from a yard that is in form; but is she going to need this race?

    Her main market rival Noon Star is a well bred daughter of Galileo who won on her seasonal bow at the unlikely venue of Wetherby; and is my idea of the winner. I am biased because the dam Midday was a favourite of mine.

    Mystery Angel has done a lot of racing and won the Pretty Polly last time, making use of her race fitness, so she deserves to take her chance. I cannot help but feel that Snowfall makes the trip from Ballydoyle as a yardstick to give Coolmore some measure of how good a race this is, a conclusion that can also be drawn about the Gosden runner Senita, who ran abysmally last time but is tried in a hood here in the absence of other more fancied Oaks fillies from that yard.

    The Duke Of York Stakes features the usual mix that all aged sprint races attract. Old boy Brando continues to run with credit but it is nearly two years since he won. Summerghand has won his last two, most recently the Abernant where he accounted for Oxted and Emaraaty Ana. The betting suggests that Oxted is expected to reverse that form on this flat track but his victory in the July Cup is starting to look like a flash in the pan and at the prices I would pass him over. Nahaarr won the Ayr Gold Cup but three of the next four home were reliable handicapping yardsticks, which suggests that he may have to find a few pounds to challenge here. Starman was unbeaten when collecting the Garrowby over course and distance beating Dakota Gold with Ventura Rebel behind and has to be in the mix after just four career starts. He lost his unbeaten tag when down the field in the Champions Sprint, where Oxted was fifth a nose behind Art Power while Brando just failed to win. I am not sure that soft ground form can be relied upon and Art Power certainly seems to favour easy ground as he was fourth in the Haydock Sprint Cup on it too. The one that interests me most is MOLATHAM from the Varian barn. He campaigned mostly over seven furlongs as a three year old, winning the Jersey Stakes and being two lengths behind the smart Wichita in the Park Stakes; however, he is entered in the Diamond Jubilee so is clearly thought to be quick enough for six. It running in the Shadwell colours means I will have to put up with my jinx jockey.
     
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  6. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    I'm not that far from York and it was pissing it down yesterday afternoon, evening and throughout the night. Would definitely expect it to be on the softer side. Wetherby was abandoned yesterday due to waterlogging. Its only 20 minutes down road from there to York.
     
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  7. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Well said
     
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  8. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    5:20 Bath - Who Told Jo Jo 50/1. This one definitely falls into the speculative category. Has a bit of course form. Enough to say it likes the course? that's doubtful but has won here before. Seems to do its best work at this time of year and the race doesn't scream quality. I'm pinning my hopes on the fact that the horses hasn't completely gone to **** and can still show something. If price wasn't so big I probably wouldn't bother but at 50s it's worth risking a small ew. 4 places too.

    As I type price out to 66s. Another negative but I'm in now and have BOG. Fingers crossed.
     
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  9. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Teona broke the 2yo track record for 10f at Newcastle on a track riding slow, winning by 9L hands and heels from a horse now rated 82.

    Noon Star clocked the 2nd fastest time for 10f at Wetherby and comfortably beat horses who are at least listed level.

    if these are not both 100+ horses ill give the game up, regardless of what the ratings say, Mystery Angel is officially rated 100 and she is 13/2 3rd choice.
     
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  10. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    Worcester 3.00 Lostinmonmartre

    Good third behind an improver from the Ferghal O'Brien yard on british debut at Ludlow. No chance in a Cheltenham listed event behind Martello Sky last time out. No forlorn hope today on handicap debut with the yard in good form (2 wins 2 placed last 14 days).
    Alastair Ralph has a fine record at Worcester for each way purposes over the last 5 seasons

    runs 12 wins 4 places 1 PL 18.25

    Obviously if you look at former french form soft ground would be ideal but still an interesting contender today in my opinion.
     
    #10

  11. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    York 1.40 Win O'Clock

    Progressive last season and will be suited by todays softer going after comeback run on fast ground. Stable amongst the winners recently and James Doyle always an eyecatching jockey booking.
     
    #11
  12. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    York

    14,10
    Manigordo 14/1 e/w six places wiht PP and Betfair, 12/1 Sky seven places.
    (Sorry Grendel)
    15,40
    Northern Express 9/2

    Perth
    18,10 Evita Du Mesnil 6/1
    19,10 Cage Of Fear 8/1 e/w bet365 three places, others 15/2 four places.
     
    #12
  13. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Disappointed to see that that the meeting from God's own racecourse, Newton Abbot, has been abandoned. Bitter blow for them what with the ITV cameras set to show one race at the meeting live.
     
    #13
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  14. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Yes and it looked a competitive little heat too. Shame all round.
     
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  15. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    Next three at York ...... be warned.

    Emaraaty Anna
    Mystery Angel
    Pivoting .......... all ew's :)
     
    #15
  16. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Well we were worried that there were no 100 rated performers in the Musidora and a filly who had raced 7 times and was rated 90 on official figures comes in and hoses up.

    Snowfall had only ever won a maiden thus far and was thumped by Pretty Gorgeous every time they met last season. She seemed to simply outpace the more fancied pair today and they could not muster the necessary pace to challenge. It seemed a fairly slowly run affair and I was concerned early in the race that it wasn't going to suit Noon Star, whose races have all been about being strong in the latter stages of the race and the Musidora trip at York would not play to her strengths. Again today, Noon Star stayed on dourly but only to grab second place and I feel she needs 12F for sure.

    Teona was more puzzling today. She sat nearer the back but did move forward with purpose and I felt she might be coming to win it but it wasn't long before her run seemed to tail off and she just kept on at one pace to snatch 3rd.

    Noon Star and Teona both doubled in price from 8/1 and 5/1 respectively for the Oaks while Snowfall was rushed in to 6/1, having been 40/1 last night. That is a bolt from the blue and asks the question as to what she will be rated now, having begun the race on 90. The assessors are usually pretty bullish and I would imagine they will hoist her 20 lbs to 110.

    As ever, you back ante-post at 10/3 and 4/1, the horse starts 11/10 and beats the original favourite, only for one to come from the dark and pump you up the waste gas pipe.

    Earlier, Mandrigoro started well in his race but faded quickly and badly. Mr Lupton is one of those horses I never manage to catch right and it was no surprise that he succeeded today without the burden of my cash. He seems to be one of those horses who gets a break from the handicapper fairly regularly and on 101 today he was on a mark lower than he has won from several times in the past.

    Starman made it a profitable day though. I thought he would win well at one stage but in the end he really had to dig in to repel Nahaarr by a neck. I had been worried that the rain showers may have scuppered Starman's chance but he travelled well and I was confident coming into the closing stages. The last 100 yards felt like a mile but the winning post came in time. Oxted was a good way back in 3rd place while Art Power was a shade disappointing in 6th. This was a good run from Nahaarr, who I was bullish about going into last year's Stewards Cup but he never fired at all that day. A sad footnote to the race was Molatham, who suffered a fatal heart attack after the finish. RIP Molatham <peacedove>
     
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  17. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    Yep. Stone last at 80/1.
     
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  18. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    I'll be watching for the 5th in the Musidora. Just the sort to win the Park Hill. Didn't get it all together today but could learn a lot from that.
     
    #18
  19. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    Evita Du Mesnil won, SP 10/1.
    Cage Of Fear NR.
     
    #19
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  20. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Piss all by the look of it.
     
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