Daily Racing Thread Friday 30th. April 2021

Friday's Meetings

Goodwood
Flat 7 Races 1:00-4:25p.m.
Chepstow
Flat 8 Races 1:15-5:05p.m.
Musselburgh
Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:10p.m.
Punchestown Festival(E)
N/H 8 Races 3:40-7:35p.m.
Cheltenham(E)
N/H 7 Races 5:00-8:15p.m.
Newcastle(E)
A/W 7 Races 5:15-8:25p.m.

Racecards
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Sporting Life

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Good Luck

 

Nice to see a race on the Cheltenham Hunter Chase card named in honour of the late Lorna Brooke

 

Nelson Gay may well be a good thing in the 15.20 Goodwood, But I don't see it that way. Should he really be odds on?

Nelson Gay won last week at Sandown (time slow by 1.98s), which on the face of it doesn't seem too bad considering he won easily by 6½l. But he carries a stone more tomorrow. Conversely, Peerless won his race at Nottingham by 1¾l (time slow by 0.47s) carries 13lb less tomorrow. I don't know how they would have fared against each other if those two races could be compared in some way but (effectively) Peerless would be 27lb better off tomorrow. That seems one hell of a shift to me

Also, Warrior Brave looks to have a time edge over the fav

 

DOSTAL PHIL 12/1 Punchestown 4:15
Low mileage for a horse his age and open to bags of improvement up in trip. His last time out third reads pretty well with the winner hosing up today and like that one I dont think he would have got on the boat if they didnt rate his chances.

 

Ante-post betting is through for the Chester Vase on Wednesday 5th May.

The betting is dominated by Godolphin runners and Aidan's team look pretty poor to be honest.

Ballydoyle failures Sir Lucan and Sandhurst are entered again and would hardly make anyone shake in their shoes. Aidan's Sir Lamorak is the most fancied of his entries at 3/1 and although he was impressive last time, he was running off 85 in a Handicap and was thrown in given that his mark is up to 101 now. I think life will be tougher for him outside of handicaps and he doesn't have the profile you would expect of a real Derby candidate.

Charlie Appleby revealed his plans for the trials with his contenders recently and they were as follows:-

Hurricane Lane is likely to run in the Dante.

Adayar could go Lingfield Derby Trial or if the ground is too fast there, the Dante.

Yibir is probably going Chester Vase to get a longer trip.

Wirko is said to be going to Chester for the Dee Stakes.

Given the arrangements discussed above for the Appleby horses, it seems that Yibir is the one going to Chester for the Vase and with likely defectors from the stable Yibir appeals as a bet for the Vase at 4/1. In my mind, if Appleby holds true to his word Yibir could start at half those odds.

I had actually thought Hurricane Lane might have been best suited by the Chester Vase but if the trainer says Yibir is the one for the race then he seems a bet at the odds.

Chester Vase Wednesday 5th May Yibir 4/1

 

Cracking price you have there Stick, just gone to back it on Skybet and is only 4/1.

 

Best price now is 6/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook.
Sadly beating the book only guarantees you eventually getting banned and not necessarily having winners!

 

Can you run me through that again?

 

The two horses you are comparing have met before Ron. Twice in fact. On the first occasion Nelson Gay was 12.5 lengths in front of Peerless and on the second occasion Nelson Gay was 7.45 lengths in front of Peerless. On a positive note.....the gap is closing!

 

I am not sure about Ron's Maths regarding Nelson Gay.

Tomorrow's race is a Handicap and if Nelson Gay had not won last time he would have lined up off a mark of 82 in this upcoming race. Peerless was previously rated 68 but when he won last time he was fully re-assessed and given a new mark of 75. The difference here is that Nelson Gay won on 23rd April and gets in here with a 6 lbs penalty. That makes his rating 88 for the purposes of this race but his actual new Handicap mark is 95. In theory he is, therefore 7lbs well in here. He is giving Peerless 13 lbs but is in fact 20 lbs higher on official ratings if they re-framed the race now.

I have seen plenty of these "well in" horses beaten in my time but every time I go against them it seems they win like the "Good thing" they are supposed to be.

Peerless has improved 16 lbs so far since being gelded and fellow gelding Nelson Gay has risen 21 lbs since he first ran "Sans Plums"

It seems the pair have gotten better since they lost their pair. If only we could put certain trainers and jockeys forward for the same operation.

Looking at the race I thought Warrior Brave might have a small squeak if Nelson Gay doesn't cash in on his favourable looking mark. Not fully exposed, Warrior Brave was running from unfavorable terms at level weights against higher rated horses last time. He would have been better in if it were a handicap and it wasn't a bad effort in the circumstances. Perhaps the first time cheekpieces will help and he did dwell at the start last time. Goodwood is not every horse's cup of tea.

3.20 Goodwood Warrior Brave 5/1

 

Sorry Nass, just got in

Nelson Gay may well be a good thing in the 15.20 Goodwood, But I don't see it that way. Should he really be odds on?

Nelson Gay won last week at Sandown (time slow by 1.98s), which on the face of it doesn't seem too bad considering he won easily by 6½l. But he carries a stone more tomorrow. Conversely, Peerless won his race at Nottingham by 1¾l (time slow by 0.47s) carries 13lb less tomorrow. I don't know how they would have fared against each other if those two races could be compared in some way but (effectively) Peerless would be 27lb better off tomorrow. That seems one hell of a shift to me

Also, Warrior Brave looks to have a time edge over the fav

 

Mitigating circumstances in both races

 

I haven't looked at ratings Grendel. Just pointing out that Peerless has 13lb less to carry since his last win and the fav has a stone more to carry since his last win and, given the times of their respective races, it didn't seem like an odds on shot to me.

 

As long as he is suited by the step up in distance it looks like you have a cracking bet there stick

 

The weights carried are different because Peerless ran in a 0-70 last time and is in a 0-90 race now. Nelson Gay is dropping from 0-100 to 0-90 this time.

Obviously a horse will carry less weight when facing horses up to 20 lbs higher in the ratings than they faced previously and a horse dropping to face horses up to 10 lbs lower will carry relatively more weight because they are facing horses of a lesser quality.

All that matters is the relative weight difference between two horses and not the actual weight itself. You could take a stone off each horse and the difference would still be the same. That is the very essence of handicap racing. In theory each horse has an equal chance because the better horses get more weight to level the playing field.

 

I'm sure you are right Grendel. I have no grasp of handicapping at all. I'm looking at it from a different angle based on their most recent runs. Probably talking nonsense as usual but based on my simple logic, I prefer the other 2 I mentioned and I would not back Nelson Gay at odds on. Probably win by a street now

 

The other thing about horses like Nelson Gay is that they are running because they simply have to run before their revised rating kicks in. They are not running because the race suits them and they are perfectly suited by the race conditions. The horse is in fine fettle and as he is a sprinter you would like to think that a quick reappearance would not be too much of an inconvenience but how many times do you read the comment “possibly not suited by running again so soon”.
I would be surprised if he didn’t win but not a betting proposition for my pockets.

 

Have to against you today- for me Asterion Forlonge in handicap company going right handed has to be the bet! His jumping has steadily being improving as the season has progressed. Was a tad disappointing the last run however He’s not a g1 chaser unfortunately for all that he seemed it as a hurdler and his run at Cheltenham was pleasing enough. Any repetition of those performances have to see him go close. Could be vunerable to a better handicapped horse but he is the class in the field and with Conditions in his favour. He’s the one to beat

 

Mad double with Goshen!!

 

Day 4 @ Punchy and we the week seems to have flown by, shame that i've missed most of it due to work, but not today...!! Todays picks to amuse me through the day...

3:40 - Rewritetherules, looks too strong for the rest for me, skinny though, 8/11...
4:15 - Asterion Forlonge, one of 3 tracker horse's i have in this with A Wave of the Sea & Port Stanley the others, looks the one to beat though, 10/3...
4:50 - Salsaretta, most wins have come at this more manageable distance, 8/1...
5:25 - Sharjah, the ew play just in case Honeysuckle struggles, just as De Bromhead has all week, 9/1...
6:00 - Gallard Du Mensil, would have been a good race had BobO stayed in but he's way too short at 4/11 for a bet now, was 5/2 this morning...
6:35 - Staker Walace, cliff horse, should have won more than he has but is always involved, 8/1...
7:05 - Dreamsaremadeofthis, hopefully will carry on from her opening race win at Cork last month, 8/1...
7:35 - Stone Mad, trainer has a great strike rate in bumpers, 5/1...

Good luck top all who are playing today...