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Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 20th. April 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Apr 19, 2021.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    #1
  2. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Over at Chantilly the big priced winner of the Flying Childers Ubettabelieveit is entered in the Group 3 Prix Sigy at Chantilly. The Tinkler horse had been a selection for me in the Gimcrack but he ran like a drain, tailed off 30 lengths in last place. He went into the Doncaster Group 2 as a 40/1 shot but got it on the nod from Sacred, putting his shocker well behind him. He then ran with credit at the Breeder's Cup in 3rd place.

    A Group 2 winner in a Group 3 race will appeal to plenty of punters but the ground is going to be very different in France, compared to his USA jaunt. The other obvious downside is Ubettabelieveit being 4/5 Fav favourite when carrying his Group 2 penalty.

    Kalahara is a Group 3 winner but he was a bit below that last time when beaten favourite in 3rd place lining up in Listed company. I also wouldn't be 100% sure that he wants it really soft.

    The one who interests me is Suesa, who is 2/2 after winning a Stakes race on debut and then following up in a Listed contest. That looked quite a good improvement on her first run and she came away in quite good style to win by two lengths. The filly has won on Heavy both times and has won here on both previous runs. It seems like she has changed ownership to George Strawbridge and moved to the Rohaut stable. Suesa gets a handy looking 8 lbs from Ubettabelieveit and with fitness and ground in her favour I thought it worth chancing her at 7/1 instead of the odds-on favourite.

    1.50 Chantilly Suesa 7/1

     
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  3. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    The Blue Riband looks interesting

    Uncle Bryn is by Sea The Stars out of a mare by globetrotter Singspiel

    I don't remember Singspiel as a 3yo but he was a tough horse and achieved a lot as an older horse. That does make me wonder if this will come a bit early for him and Evs seems a very short price

    I like the pedigree of Star Calibre (by Golden Horn out of a King's Best mare) and at 6/1 could be the better value

    Would love to see an impressive win in a fast time by one of these but not holding my breath
     
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  4. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    Interesting race Grendel. Favourite way too short and definitely agree it's worth taking on. Ideal Beauty to me looks another interesting one. It's fair to say it's been a bit underwhelming so far and has already been beaten by your selection but drop in trip could help and not worth giving up on just, yet. I'm not taking you on though because I agree you've probably taken the favourite on with the right horse but I'll do a little reverse forecast on Suesa/Ideal Beauty.

    Good luck
     
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  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Two for me on this thread and some more at Southwell tonight...

    3:10 - Millie The Minx - I think she has the best chance of winning this hurdle at Sedgefield, but she isn't favourite in the market. She is a course regular, likes spring ground and is feasibly treated. I have taken 11/2 about her here.

    5:15 - Igotatext - An awful name, but I do think this horse is very interesting today for the Archie Watson yard. He won a course and distance handicap last season, in which he beat a Godolphin horse. He then went to the Curragh for their super sprint and showed up for a long way. He is a front runner (surprise surprise) and again I thought he would be at the front of the market. I was surprised that I could get 10s and he is still available for similar odds.
     
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  6. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    I find it hard to take a horse with the name Uncle Bryn seriously.
     
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  7. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    Sedgefield 2.40 High Noon

    Picked up minor money in every of his 3 runs this year and the Micky Hammond yard thinks todays trip could be ideal according to their website. Should have a nice each way chance with eased mark. Becky Smith has finished in the first three out of 5 her rides in the last 14 days. Stable amongst the winners yesterday.
     
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  8. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Just a couple of notes / housekeeping re what I have written lately. Creative Force and Rosie Powers did both get hefty ratings rises after their runs last week. 8 lbs and 11 lbs respectively. Although both should now be plying their trade at Listed / Group level so this could not be hugely meaningful for either.

    But one that, I've noticed, has gone the other way is Pleasant Man. Dropped 6 lbs to 95. Imagine they will be dancing outside Beckhampton House right now...
     
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  9. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Benoit admits to taking drugs. Seems Gosden has a full line of jockeys who all like lines themselves.
     
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  10. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    This trial had become a bit of a non-factor in the Derby itself but John Gosden has put something of a grip on it in recent times and had good sorts in So Mi Dar and Cracksman winning it in the past few years. I had actually backed Cracksman at 14/1 for the Derby that season and felt he had a good chance but he couldn't quiye do it at Epsom or in the Irish Derby but was later nearly unbeatable on soft ground.

    Uncle Bryn had the look of another Waldkonig when winning easily at Woverhampton on his second start and prior to that he had won at Kempton in promising style and he surely has scope for better. A short price today though and the horses he has met before have been moderate, despite some of them winning races.The son of Sea The Stars has an official rating of 92, which is a fair starting mark coming into the first race of a new season but he is not the highest rated in today's field.

    Richard Fahey's Pythagoras is top of today's tree with a mark of 98. He had pissed up on his Handicap debut off 77 but could not follow up off his new mark of 89 when favourite for a Nursery next time. The son of Zoffany landed a Listed race on his final run of the season and he was quite progressive last year. I get the feeling that others will be able to improve past him today and, to use an old chestnut, I will leave Pythagoras out of the equation here.

    Plenty tips for Star Caliber today and I was surprised to see that, with five nominations, only one more tipster put up Uncle Bryn. At 7/1 versus Evens, the betting suggests that those tipsters may have been selecting a value option over a warm favourite.

    A few possibilities but I went with horse who had zero tips. Wirko was runner up on debut and did not need to improve from that to win easily next time. He beat very little that second time out but I expect him to improve for the extra 2F today. The dam won at 14F, so this son of Kingman should get 10F in my opinion. With the stable going so well I felt he was a value selection at 13/2. He needs more to score here but these are horses rated in the 90's and it's not an insurmountable task.

    Gosden said they are running Uncle Bryn here to find out where they are with him and no doubt he will be second favourite for the Derby if he wins well. He needs a good bit more though and I'll take him on today at the prices.

    2.15 Epsom Wirko 13/2
     
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  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps a tough Schoolmaster ordered him to do 100 lines.
     
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  12. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    Well done with Suesa and thank you very much. I backed Suesa after reading your post.
     
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  13. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Over at Tipperary Aidan O'Brien had a War Front filly called Yet, who was likely to go off a warm favourite in the 5F 2YO maiden. If you will pardon the pun, yet again the trainer pulls one out at the 11th hour. Is it just me, or is Aidan more prone than other trainers to pulling them out late?

    Anyway, with the original fav gone, the race looks more open. None of the ones who have run look anything to worry overly about and I notice Donnacha O:Brien isn't really firing. One of his earlier Caravaggio 2YO runners wasn't involved, so I just wonder about today's entrant Elliptic? O'Brien Junior Junior has a load of Caravaggio 2YO's in his yard and it has the look of a project to it. I'll pass because of the stable's quietness.

    There has been support for Porsche Cavalier, who is by first season sire Cotai Glory, and she is nudging into favourite. A claimer takes 5 lbs off but the stable are 1/23 at present.

    The Harrington stable are not firing on 2/42 this past fortnight, so I had to pass on her entry today.

    I decided to chance Johnnie Murtagh's Mehmas filly Happi Go Lucky on debut. The sire did really well last season and she could be the type to go well early. At £26,000 she was one of the more expensive in the field. One of them cost 800 Euros and would be a real bargain basement.

    4.40 Tipperary Happi Go Lucky 10/3
     
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  14. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Yep, had a bit on Suesa too, many thanks Grendel. Top evaluation and selection! <ok>
     
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  15. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Bloody hell. Wasn't going to back it but stuck a bit from Suesa on it. Thanks again Grendel, I owe you a beer (or two or a case!) Red hot form! :emoticon-0167-beer: <ok>
     
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  16. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Shout Grendel
     
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  17. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    Again well done and thank you very much for putting it on <party>
     
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  18. LG

    LG Well-Known Member

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    me too :)
     
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  19. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    ....Grendel, and the best of luck for a great hattrick with Happi Go Lucky in the 4.40 at Tipperary. Will be backing it, of course, but pondering how much to put on it. Wise not to be greedy! :emoticon-0100-smile
     
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  20. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    G'wan Millie!!! (did anyone have it BOG <laugh>)
     
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