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Daily Racing Thread Monday 19th. April 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Apr 18, 2021.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    #1
  2. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Evening, all. Hope everyone well.

    So did we make any positive notes re any of the runners, these past few days, at the highly informative Flat meets that have been held???

    Top of my list was CREATIVE FORCE who won the 6 furlong handicap at Newmarket on Thursday. Love the way that he quickened in the final furlong, of that contest, and that burst of speed, to me, marked him down as potentially very decent. I’m sure he will be stepped up to Listed / Group 3 level next time and I think he will take some beating even at that higher grade. Certainly bred to be that good being a half-brother to a Group 1 winner. Very decent prospect, methinks.

    I also thought NAJEEBA and ROSIE POWERS worthy of positive mentions as well. The former, of Mr Charlton’s, kept on nicely into 7th in Newbury’s 10f fillies maiden. That seasonal debut run was Promising with a capital ‘P’ and certainly, to me, hinted that there would be a lot more to come next time. Najeeba looks to have a lot of potential, team. The latter stayed on very nicely to take 4th in Bath’s 5f Listed event on Friday. She may have shot her handicap mark, of 75, in finishing so close to animals rated in the 90’s but she looks to have the potential to take black type (see what I did there) or even win a Listed event next time out.

    Am certainly looking forward to seeing how the campaign plays out re these 3.
     
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  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    There looked to be an interesting opportunity to oppose the front few in the betting in the 3.10 at Windsor.

    Just a Class 5 Novice race over 10F and probably won't take a lot of winning but I thought that Siskany as favourite was too short and also the second best looked poor value.

    Siskany represents a stable in form for Charlie Appleby but I thought 13/8 was short enough. The son of Dubawi was 5th on debut before winning at Kempton next time but his official rating of 83 is not outstanding and the second and third from his race were both thumped a long way next time. From 13 subsequent runs the nly win was achieved in a Handicap from a mark of 66. As a previous winner, he has to concede 7 lbs to the maidens in the field,

    Beating All is 1/1 for Michael Stoute and appeals more at 3/1 and he would probably be preferred as the less exposed of other winners Oz Legend and Surefire who are in the mix. Beating All and Oz Legend are quite tightly matched on a couple of formlines and only two pounds cover the first five on adjusted Racing Post ratings.

    At the odds, I decided to have a small bet on Eagle Terrace. This horse was squeezed at the start on debut and then hung left before finishing second. He was favourite next time but the ground was heavy that day and he weakened into a well beaten 4th. By Gleneagles, Eagle Terrace must have been thought capable of better because he was gelded, and back to a sound surface now it is hoped he can show improvement at a good price. The Gosden stable are ticking along well enough and Rab Havlin is more than capable.

    3.10 Windsor Eagle Terrace 12/1
     
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  4. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    Windsor 4.10 Pastfact

    On a good mark and ground will suit. Josephine Gordon's all time record when riding for Malcolm Saunders:

    37 rides 8 wins 10 places

    Strike rate 21,62 %

    Its her only ride of the day.

    Obviously Pastfact has a poor record fresh but there is some market support for the horse today.
     
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  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    I've taken a look at a couple of races today, both at Pontefract and both have trading positions.

    The first is obvious, its the sprint where Caspian Prince may well get an easy lead. He has raced a mere 47 times on turf, and he has led 31 times from those races, a rate of 65%. The nearest rival in terms of leading early is Justanotherbottle with 27%, who for me is his main rival in the race today.

    In a sprint at Pontefract being on the pace can be a massive advantage and as long as Ali Rawlinson sets an even pace he should trade shorter than his SP.


    Then we go up to the maximum trip, but its the same idea, horses on the pace even over the longer distance are often the ones to be with, and in runnings of this race since 2010 we've had 11 horses leading from the start (2012 desputed lead) and 3 wins and a further 4 places from those runners. Now its harder to find the pace angle in this race, so it will be a case of playing in the first furlong of the race, but my eye is drawn to Wemyss Point, Lovely Lou Lou & Severus Alexander. The obvious one would be Wemyss Point who has won this race before and ran prominently that day.
     
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  6. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Oh and Boris is trying to run again tonight at Market Rasen. Paddy is riding and hopefully we will know after the race what our plans will be with him moving forwards. He has been very disappointing in his last two runs but hopefully he can show something different today. I am not going, I am not expecting anything from him and just hope he shows a bit of spark.

    It would be hilarious if he was Fergal's 100th winner of the season, given how badly his last two runs have been.
     
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  7. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Lorna Brooke sadly died from her injuries from her fall. Such sad news and genuinely shocking to read this morning.
     
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  8. TheDukester

    TheDukester Member

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    Windsor 1.40

    Carp kid 3/1
     
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  9. GillLebowski

    GillLebowski Active Member

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    The 5:30 at Market Rasen today looks like an absolute terrible race... Torrent Des Mottes was put up here on it's 2nd last race which it won. It followed up by only losing by around a length and a half to an even money favourite... None of the other horses bring any form into this race... The only horses I can see troubling this one is Snougar and at the twice the price I'd prefer to be with Torrent Des Mottes. Anti Cool could be another danger but that's all I can even think of in this race troubling him...
    For an absolute Hail Mary of a bet I'm going with L'es Fremantle at 90/1 for 4 places, may have another tiny bit if he drifts even more later which he probably will, and deserves to. He's been woeful for the last 2 years, and even before then he was pretty woeful. This is where he's raced the most and he hasn't gone over a distance this short in years, if he somehow manages to stay up, considering how bad I think the rest of the field are, I'm hoping he might be able to scrape into a 4th place...
     
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  10. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    In the 15:10 at Windsor the Fastnet Rock colt, Surefire, could run well. Ran a couple of times last season and ran green on both occasions, even when winning on his second run at Newcastle. in which he finally got the hang of things pretty late on, and in the end won well. Hopefully, he has got over the greenness by now. Drawn well in stall 7 of the 9 runners. Competent young jockey Rossa Ryan rides for trainer R.M Beckett.
     
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  11. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Good run by Surefire, but favourite was just a bit too good! <ok>
     
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  12. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    Well done with Wemyss Point and thank you :emoticon-0148-yes:
     
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  13. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Well supported and won in good fashion. I’ve always liked this silly long flat races.
     
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  14. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    There was money for Eagle Terrace from 12/1 to 13/2 but he looked amiss very early on in the race. He ended up tailed off and I reckon there has been an issue that led to him being de-balled and the gelding operation hasn't solved it. It was a woeful effort and never has £2 been so frivolously lost. The trainer's representative told the stewards that the horse found the going too fast and that he ran too free. I like fairy stories myself. Beaten 42 lengths, I would reckon that this is a more likely explanation:- W⚓

    The Fav did the business for the in form Appleby stable and it is remarkable to think that Charlie Appleby is 6/21 this past two weeks and Bin Suroor hasn't even had a runner these past three weeks. The 6th of March was the last time the former main man at Godolphin had a winner and it's changed days in a big way for him. I noticed that Charlie Appleby has more than FORTY 2 year olds out of Dubawi in his hands this season. Saeed Bin Suroor's Dubawi 2YO progeny for this season? ONE

    No need to ask who the daddy is there!
     
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  15. LG

    LG Well-Known Member

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    I followed you in on this (sadly for slightly more than £2) but I love your write-ups Grendel please keep them coming!
     
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  16. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    come on Ron, that deserves a weeks ban <laugh>
     
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