Daily Racing Thread Sunday 18th. April 2021

Shout

 

Poor from Tamaroc du Mathan and Notachance disappointed..

 

2nd.

 

The headline for today's Greenham preview article read:-

"The Greenham is a race for stars - so could we see another Frankel or Kingman?"

That seemed like bullshit looking at today's field and it looked like steaming bullshit after the race. I was grateful for Chindit winning and breaking even on the day but a neck and the same was hardly the performance Richard Hannon would have been looking for.especially with the runner-up having 20 lbs to find coming in. Al Kumait was awful and Coventry winner Nando Parrado was 4 lengths back today, but had been thumped twice that margin by Sealiway, who was very uneasy in the market when runner up in the Prix Fontainebleau today. Andre Fabre's Perchemin was a surprise favourite for that French Guineas trial today at 11/8 but was only 5th in a race where a couple of lengths covered the 1st six home. It didn't look good form regarding the French 2000 Guineas and winner Policy Of Truth is 10/1 favourite for that race now. It is a race where the ones I fancied have never been given quotes and with Sealiway opening at 7/10 Fav for today's race I only had a bet on him at 8/1 for the French Guineas in order to have an interest in today's race. He is now 12/1 for the French Classic but I can't see him reversing form with Policy Of Truth from today, as the winner has more substance and scope to him in my opinion.

Chindit was cut to 11/1 and as low as 7/1 for the Guineas after his win today. I think it is nonsense to have him shorter than Craven winner Master Of The Seas. Although today's runner up Mehmento had been winning by big margins in his first two starts, those were class 5 races and the horses he had beaten were thumped even further in future races and are probably going to be handicappers rated in the 60's at best.

Some silly cutting of odds by the layers and if Aidan's filly is as good as they say she may not have much to beat in the 1000 Guineas.

 

Group 2 is probably Chindits level

 

Soft ground would be better for Pretty Gorgeous but the two runs behind Shale were over 7F and she was beaten less than a length in the Group 1 Moyglare. I would much rather take that than a maiden win where the 3rd home was a couple of lengths behind and had come in with a RPR of 70. Of course horses can improve over the winter but Fantastic Fox has been third in a Maiden that has worked out terribly, with zero winners from 19 subsequent runs. Some reviews today said that Snow Lantern "Has it all, being by Frankel out of Sky Lantern" but that works out less often than necessary to keep punters afloat.

Of course Pretty Gorgeous is long odds-on NOT to win the Guineas but I think she deserves to be favourite. The assessors will have to raise Derab and Fantastic Fox by large margins to get Snow Lantern close to Guineas level form.

It looks a weak 1000 Guineas to me.

 

Given the pedigrees of the front 3 in that maiden, and with them pulling clear in a good time, it probably wasnt far off a Group 3 level race, wouldnt be at all surprised to see the 2 beaten colts running at that level this season. Considering that was only Snow Lanterns 2nd start, the reputation she has always had and the fact she is now proven at a mile, I cant really complain about her being 3rd in the betting, open to suggestions of who exactly should be in front of her at this stage. She obviously has to step forward another 7-8 pounds from today and ultimately the race might come too soon for her, but I just dont see anyone who should be in front of her in the betting other than the 2 who are, shes rightfully 3rd choice imo.