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QIPCO 2000 Guineas, Newmarket, Saturday 1st May 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by QuarterMoonII, Mar 21, 2021.

  1. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    A lot of the 2020 racing calendar was completely screwed up but many of the key end of season juvenile races did actually survive reasonably intact and run roughly when they would have been in the fixture list.

    Looking at the ante-post betting, the front five in the lists are trained by the O’Brien family but one of them is not in daddy bear’s Ballydoyle operation.

    Battleground has an excellent pedigree, his dam the tenacious Arc winning mare Found. On his final start he was beaten by local outsider Fire At Will in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, a race in which Cadillac was fourth. Prior to that he had won the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood beating Devious Company two lengths and he lost his maiden tag at the rearranged Royal Ascot winning the Chesham Stakes from March Law. There is everything to like about Aidan O’Brien’s colt and I expect him to go straight to Newmarket.

    The key two year old race from a point of view of form lines could be the Dewhurst Stakes but the most significant factor may be the soft ground. It was won by St Mark’s Basilica, beating Wembley three-quarters of a length with Thunder Moon third. That race also featured Cadillac, Albasheer, Devious Company, Chindit and Poetic Flare.

    The Dewhurst Stakes also illustrates the main problem with the juvenile colt form from 2020. Winner St Mark’s Basilica had only been third in the National Stakes behind Thunder Moon and Wembley on good ground. Prior to the National Stakes, St Mark’s Basilica had won a maiden race on soft ground. Is Aidan O’Brien’s colt ground dependent? Will he be a no-show at HQ if the ground is quick?

    Thunder Moon won the National Stakes beating Wembley a length and a half and won a maiden race at The Curragh on debut. With just three races on the clock (including the Dewhurst Stakes third) there is still plenty of scope for improvement but does Joseph O’Brien’s colt want ground good or quicker? Looking at Wembley’s form suggests that he might be a decent yardstick as his only victory was a Roscommon maiden race on very soft ground but he was second in the Dewhurst Stakes (soft ground) and the National Stakes (good ground) – beaten by different opponents.

    The first of the dark horses in the betting comes from Ballydoyle in the shape of High Definition. On debut he beat favourite (stablemate) Wordsworth in a blanket finish to a soft ground maiden race; and then returned to the same course and distance to win the Beresford Stakes on easy ground. So two wins from two starts, yet to encounter quick ground and nothing to complain about – but will a mile be his minimum trip as a three year old?

    Chindit looks almost like the typical Hannon two year old, although he was not over-raced with only four starts. His final start when a well beaten ninth in the Dewhurst Stakes may be excusable because of the ground. Previously he won the Champagne Stakes beating Albasheer a length with Devious Company fifth; and his first two starts were an easy maiden race win and an easy Ascot Listed race win. If he is catching the pigeons on the gallops then his odds might shorten but he is one I expect to see in one of the trials, possibly the Craven Stakes to find out about the mile.

    The National Stakes form is also tied into the juvenile sprinters through fifth Lucky Vega. Jessica Harrington’s colt was joint favourite there after readily winning the Phoenix Stakes where The Lir Jet was second and St Mark’s Basilica was fifth. He went on to finish second in the Middle Park Stakes on his final start, beaten half a length by Supremacy.

    Jessica Harrington must have a reasonable idea of the abilities of many of the others as her Cadillac was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, fifth in the Dewhurst Stakes and won the Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown readily with Van Gogh second.

    Clive Cox’s Supremacy made all to win the Middle Park Stakes, before which he easily collected the Richmond Stakes on quick ground after losing his maiden tag at the second attempt at Windsor. It is hard to escape from the conclusion that he is a sprinter and will not be at Newmarket in May.

    Owen Burrows’ Minzaal was third in the Middle Park Stakes on his final start after winning the Gimcrack Stakes at York cosily beating Devilwala two lengths following an easy win in a Salisbury novice event on quick ground. He too looks destined for a sprinting programme.

    Method was second in the Cornwallis Stakes on soft ground on his latest start having previously been last in the Middle Park Stakes. He won a novice event on debut followed by the Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury but all this points to another sprinter.

    The problem horse for many form lines may be Master Of The Seas. Charlie Appleby’s colt won a four-runner novice event on debut and was then impressive in winning the Superlative Stakes with Devious Company three lengths second. That saw him sent off joint favourite for the National Stakes where he disappointed in fourth. He was shipped out to winter in the UAE and he started his three-year-old campaign by running second in the Meydan Classic, beaten by stablemate Naval Crown, a Group 3 horse. Will he be back in Newmarket to take in one of the trials?

    There is a distinct shortage of candidates from the Godolphin operation at this stage and Charlie Appleby’s One Ruler ran consistently in five juvenile starts but his two best efforts were on easy ground. He was second to Mac Swiney in the Futurity Trophy on his latest start on heavy ground after winning the Autumn Stakes on soft ground previously, where Van Gogh was second. Van Gogh subsequently won the Saint Cloud Criterium on heavy ground and it is hard to imagine Aidan O’Brien’s colt being a Guineas contender unless HQ comes up like a quagmire.

    Jim Bolger’s Mac Swiney finished the season winning the Futurity Trophy on heavy ground after being well beaten in the National Stakes on good ground following a win in the Futurity Stakes at The Curragh on very soft ground. This all suggests ground dependency and another absentee in May.

    Albasheer has only run three times, following up an easy debut win in a twelve runner novice event with a second to Chindit in the Champagne Stakes and a disappointing sixth in the Dewhurst Stakes on soft ground. I can see Owen Burrows colt taking in one of the trials as I think it would be unwise to write him off on the strength of one bad performance on soft ground. Hamdan Al Maktoum horses had a stellar year in 2020 and with several of them retired he needs replacements to step up.

    At this point, my ante-post money would be drawn to Battleground as he ticks all the right boxes and Ballydoyle have virtually farmed the 2000 Guineas in recent times. The ones that I want to see in the trials at each-way prices are Albasheer and Chindit. My thinking is that High Definition will swerve the Guineas and go to the Derrinstown, a view supported by his favouritism for The Derby.
     
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  2. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Minzaal injured and unlikely to be seen out before midsummer anyway.
     
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  3. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Supremacy doesnt have an entry
     
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  4. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Unless there's a super Nashwan type gallop (a gallop that took an unconsidered 33-1 shot to 3-1 favouritism) then this years trials are important. Unfortunately with the loss of the early Ascot/Salisbury trials that means waiting until Newmarket mid-April. I was a Master of the Seas fan last year but hugely disappointed by his National run. He seems to be following a similar path to Masar (who admittedly didn't win the 2000G) in going to Dubai so like him may go for the Craven. In a year where they all seem much of a muchness I'd be encouraged by that.
     
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  5. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I did Master Of The Seas ante-post for the 2000 Guineas. I felt he was coming through to win the National Stakes but he seemed to fold up in the final furlong and was claimed by the three who went on to fill the 1-2-3 in the Dewhurst. His run in Meydan seemed to put the nail in his Guineas coffin but I recall Masar running an absolute shocker in Dubai before bouncing back to win the Derby.

    Master Of The Seas ran far too freely in his latest race and he had several lengths to make up on his front running Godolphin ally at the business end of the race. The odds-on favourite made some headway but was never going to reach the leader. The remainder of the small field were miles further back but they were very modest horses. Charlie Appleby reckons that Master Of The Seas will come on a lot for the outing and he did say last season that he was surprised by the colt's early success because he felt that he was more a horse for the future. The colt will need to settle better in future to have any chance and needs to find something special to have any sort of chance in the Guineas. I would like to see him run in the Craven and it is worth remembering that Masar left a performance rated 22 in Dubai well behind him with a 9 length romp in the Craven before finishing 3rd in the Guineas itself. It is still hard to imagine Master Of The Seas landing the Guineas though.

    Battleground went to the Breeders Cup and I am not a fan of that as a pathway to the 2000 Guineas. One day I may be proven wrong but for now I am happy to discount those who went to the USA late in their 2YO season. Battleground had been off since July when taking in the Juvenile race in November but more worrying for me is that his two wins look like weak form. Only one winner came from each race and they were both long odds-on winners in Novice races. I feel he is a bad favourite, even in an uninspiring looking crop. Physically this colt certainly appeals and he could hardly have better breeding by War Front out of Found, yet the sire has had numerous colts who didn't manage to train on for a 2000 Guineas and his OR of 112 leaves him with a bit to find.

    St Mark's Basilica ended the season on a high in the Dewhurst. He was reversing form from the National Stakes with Thunder Moon and Wembley but the two races would suggest they may be much of a muchness and you could hardly be super confident of which one will be top dog this season. I managed to back St Mark's Basilica on debut and he was fairly confidently backed into 6/4 that day but was a bit disappointing in second that day. Typically, he ended up the top rated colt of the year in the 2YO ranks. Surprisingly started in a Group 1 after being defeated in a maiden, it was perhaps even more surprising that he started favourite for that Phoenix Stakes given his profile. No match for winner Lucky Vega, he finished 5th before going on to win a maiden next time. That Phoenix Stakes has not worked out great, with zero subsequent winners, pretty disappointing for a Group 1 contest. One thing in St Mark's Basilica's favour is that his best runs have come when stepped up to 7F and there may be hope that a mile will suit better still. I have to take the Siyouni colt's official rating of 120 with a pinch of salt in a year where the standard looked below par and I have my doubts that we really saw anything better than 115 running last season in the 2YO ranks. Thunder Moon and Wembley are clearly tied in with St Marks Basilica but Wembley took a while to get his career on track last year and was bit of a surprise packet both times he finished 2nd in Group 1 races later on. He has the magic Galileo seed and should appreciate a mile and he would not be a shock winner in the Classic. Thunder Moon impressed me greatly on debut but I talked myself out of backing him next time. He again showed a potent turn of foot in bringing up the double sans my cash and it could be that it was too soft for him in the Dewhurst. In some ways he appeals most of any colt given that he has only had three runs and the one defeat is perhaps excusable. I think he should probably be favourite on the basis of two starts where he quickened to win with plenty in hand.

    Cadillac blitzed onto the scene in spectacular style on debut last year. Initially he looked disappointing next time out but the ground was perhaps not to his liking behind Mac Swiney. He was a good winner from Van Gogh next time and he then met with soft ground again in the Dewhurst. Not able to finish as well as Battleground did in the Breeder's Cup race, it was perhaps a bit of an ask sending him to the USA after meeting the best of his generation on ground that probably didn't suit in the top 2YO colts' contest. Hard to see how the extra race will have helped his Guineas cause and I have to leave him out of the equation for the 2000 Guineas.

    Richard Hannon always seems to manage to conjure up one or two contenders despite his colts looking somewhat exposed and Chindit looked decent last year before disappointing in the Dewhurst. I suspect he is about 7lbs short of the required standard and he doesn't quite do it for me. Etonian was amiss in the Dewhurst and the vibes didn't seem good on the day. Maybe the soft ground did for him, or perhaps something else was to blame but he ran to 78 that day and he's at least two stone better than that. His Sandown debut was as impressive as anything I saw last season and he destroyed the very useful One Ruler that day by more than 3 lengths. He landed a sub par looking Solario comfortably despite seeming to lose his footing at one stage and it is probably too soon to write him off on the basis of one lousy run. I would like to see him run in the Craven to prove that he can deal with Newmarket but he could be a player in a very open year.

    Pretty much everything I ruled out as sprinter material is out of the picture already. Lucky Vega is the only one left I think but I can't see him winning it even if he runs and the trainer tends to stay at home in the early part of the season.

    Looking at the French horses, Sealiway is the only colt quoted in the betting for the French 2000 Guineas but I doubt he would come over for our version. He slaughtered a small field on heavy ground in the Lagardere but I doubt that will work out as a good race. He was behind Battleground and Cadillac in the Breeder's Cup and had seven runs last year. I can't have him as the French Guineas winner, far less the one at Newmarket.

    I liked Rouget's Makaloun last year but he couldn't cope with 10F on heavy going in the 10F Group 1 Criterium De Saint Cloud on his final start of the season. That was plenty of a stamina test for a son of Bated Breath and I think he will prove better when there is less emphasis on staying. The wonderfully named Craps is 2/2 for Rouget and won from the front on the all weather before coming from last with a rattle to win on his second start on heavy ground. He needs to step up seriously but is entered in the French Classics and it will be interesting to see if he can be better than his name suggests. I thought that Andre Fabre's Midtown was impressive in his two starts. He hosed up on debut before a nice win in a listed race next time. He's not beaten anything of note and has won on very soft both times but he doesn't look a ground reliant colt to me and could be even better on a sound surface. By Dubawi, out of a Diktat mare he should be nailed on to get a mile and I would be interested in him for the French Guineas and Derby if the price were right.

    Money is coming in both Guineas now and it seems that Battleground and St Mark's Basilica are the popular pair. High Definition surely lacks the pace judged on his two wins and Van Gogh seems weak in the betting. I would imagine High Definition goes 10F first time out and Van Gogh heads to the French Guineas.

    Thunder Moon appeals most to me currently at 10/1. He has already defeated Wembley and St Mark's Basilica. Given better ground he may be the one to sweep through in the final two furlongs in the Guineas. Not many appeal as potential Guineas winners who would go up in trip for the Derby later. There seems a clear divide between the milers and stayers this year. Very few good Derby prospects so far and we may well see a new face line up as favourite at Epsom this year.

    Thunder Moon for me at 10/1 for Newmarket and if the price is right it will be Midtown in the French version.
     
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  6. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Good to see you back posting Grendel.

    I questioned Battlegrounds form at the time, the Vintage was not classic winning form, but I also pointed out that Kamekos form compared to Pinatubos at the same time of year was completely irrelevant when it came the following May, its all about how you progress, and its clear he was a very progressive horse. I said before the BC that he was probably a higher level 2yo than Obrien would usually send over, simply because injury robbed him of a chance of winning a G1 in Europe. Obrien uses the BC Juvenile Turf races as a last chance saloon to get a 2yo G1 into them and his elite horses usually don't need to go as they've already won their G1. Battleground was beaten in the Juvenile Turf but he was much the best on the day and lost nothing in defeat, it was a huge effort and a clear career best, finishing with plenty in the tank behind a dream trip winner, and hinting at plenty more to come on a more conventional track and stiffer mile. Grendel and I have had our long running debate over the merit of the Juvenile Turf races but for me the quality of those races has improved in recent years, and with multiple future classic and G1 winners emerging from them I think it speaks for itself. While the War Front angle is a slight concern with Battleground, and I also have a concern that 10f may be his optimum, I do think his upsides in physical potential outweigh those concerns and I think he is a very worthy favourite, although the price is fast approaching missed the boat territory, 9/1 was decent value.

    I can see the Thunder Moon angle, but despite his relatively few runs, im not sure how much progress he has in him, Zoffany is gaining a bit of a reputation for being a 2yo sire and Thunder Moon was obviously very precocious, looking top class in a maiden and then winning a G1 on his second start, both displays of top class acceleration off a slow pace. The Dewhurst was an extremely messy race for multiple reasons, numerous horses completely bombed and the presence of Devilwala beaten only 3L in 4th puts a question mark on the strength of the race for me, but im not sure Thunder Moon needs an excuse for his run, he came there stylishly but was empty at the end and didn't look to be crying out for the extra furlong. He will prefer better ground but I dont think it was as soft as was made out at the time, the times suggest it was nowhere near extreme anyway.

    Its a guessing game with the National Stakes/Dewhurst Obrien brigade as to who will progress the most, id side with St Marks Basillica to confirm the form in the Guineas but I still think Battleground is the one with the potential to be maybe a notch above them. Outside of them I have Etonian backed but he has a mountain to climb after the Dewhurst, and maybe One Ruler has a squeak. Van Gogh is the horse im most looking forward to as I think he could be Obriens star 3yo but I have him in mind for the Derby, don't think he will show up here.
     
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  7. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I didn't get into the jumps season at all this year. Too much time spent in hospital and at medical appointments meant there was no time to spare and for me Cheltenham has become diluted in quality. Appreciate It, Allaho and Monkfish were all horses I had mentioned in glowing terms after last year's Festival and Kilcruit was one I felt was already on a par with Appreciate It going into this years bumper but he didn't manage to win. Ironically, the only ante-post bet I had was placed just after last year's Cheltenham and it was on Ferny Hollow for the Ballymore. Injury ended his season early and there was talk that the Supreme would be the target, so perhaps it was a doomed bet anyway but with Bob Olinger winning the longer race after being behind Ferny Hollow first time out this season, you would have to say Ferny Hollow would have gone close and I felt he outstayed Appreciate It to win last year's Bumper.

    Getting back to the Guineas, I take the point about Zoffany as a sire. John Gosden's Foundation was the first time I started to get concerns. I thought he should have won the Racing Post Trophy as a 2YO but Frankie gave him a poor ride that day. I went off the colt right away as a 3YO but other internet scribes gave me a hard time, saying that the weather storm on the day was an excuse but I didn't buy into it and the colt was washed out stone last in the French Derby. Gosden was stunned by the showing but it seemed clear that the horse had not trained on. Albigna is a more recent example of a 2YO who didn't bring her A-game the following season. Mother Earth is another Zoffany, so she will also need to buck that pattern this year. My hope is that Thunder Moon can have an early season hurrah, even if he doesn't progress through the second half of the season. He has the advantage of only 3 runs on the clock, compared to Mother Earth with eight starts, so perhaps that will be to his advantage.
     
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  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Are you OK now Grendel?
     
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  9. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    I wrote my original pieces using the ante post prices on OddsChecker – anything less than 40/1 – rather than the early entries.

    If connections of Supremacy want to take a chance in the Guineas, they can supplement him, but I think the Commonwealth Cup is a much more likely destination.
     
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  10. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for asking Ron. I am hanging in for now. It's not great but it could be a lot worse. Trying to be positive and get on with life as best as I can. I always feel there are many people out there who have it worse than me, so in that sense I am grateful for what I can still do.
     
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  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    19 colts entered for the Craven Stakes next Thursday, Unlikely that many will stand their ground though.

    Master Of The Seas has an entry and if standing his ground he will be trying to do a Masar in getting his career back on track after a disappointment at Meydan.

    Van Gogh is highest rating on official figures and seems the best prospect of the four entered by Aidan O'Brien. Richard Hannon has Chindit and Fancy Man in the line up for now, while Coventry winner Nando Parrado is a possible for Clive Cox.

    Entries listed here:-

    https://t.attheraces.com/racecard/Newmarket/15-April-2021/1535
     
    #11
  12. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The Leopardstown trial is on Sunday (11th April) and once again it looks a bit uninspiring. The race is only Listed Class, whereas the Fillies version is Group 3.

    Monaasib is close to leading the betting from Poetic Flare and Aidan's Horoscope. I thought the value may lie with A Case Of You at 5/1. He won the Anglesey last year and made a good start for a new stable three weeks ago, so may have the fitness edge. Hard to imagine the race as having a big impact on the Newmarket betting though.
     
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  13. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Did we see the Nashwan type gallop yesterday, but on the Rowley mile? Apparently Hills considering his options with Mutasaabeq.
     
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  14. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    He was visually impressive and the time was good, given that Crowley was largely impersonating a statue <ok>
     
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  15. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    My guess is he'll have a race somewhere then go to Ascot. My problem with this is the James Palace is sometimes more difficult than the Guineas. He does look as if he'll improve a bit though.
     
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  16. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    He handled the undulations really well yesterday and the owner doesn't have anything else entered which you would call "totally unexposed" - they should go for it. William Haggas had the right approach there when talking about Sacred.
     
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  17. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Mutasaabeq was highly impressive but it was a 4 runner race with question marks.

    The runner up was an 88 rated horse and the 3rd an uneasy in the market horse, who is already dropping down the Handicap after being 4th in that sphere last time out and he will probably be dropped further after this. I think Duke Of Mantua was probably overrated on 104 after running behind St Mark's Basilica in a maiden and it seems he had a pretty lofty mark for landing a Gowran maiden on soft/heavy ground. Down to 102, I feel he will be dropped to below 100 if sense prevails. I think 7/1 for the 2000 Guineas is madness for Mutasaabeq but he's an exciting prospect for sure. I would doubt the bookies have much in the way of ante-post liabilities for this fellow and he would be a saviour for them.

    Battleground has seemed weak in the betting this past week and Wembley seems stronger in the market. Thunder Moon seems to be holding his position, along with St Mark's Basilica. One Ruler has been the subject of glowing reports and could be the one, rather than Master Of The Seas for Godolphin if the betting is anything to go by but the latter gets his chance tomorrow, although he is pretty weak in the betting for the Craven.
     
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  18. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Agree 7-1 is a crazy price.
     
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  19. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    7-1 is the shortest he is to be fair - you can get a whopping 10/1 with Unibet <laugh>

    Is it any crazier than Wembley's price though? 1 from 6 (a Roscommon maiden in August last year).

    As a victim of Ballydoyle hype horses in the Guineas from earlier years (St Nicholas Abbey for example) I urge caution
     
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  20. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I can't fancy Battleground and my original 33/1 choice St Mark's Balisca may not be so good on a sound surface and doesn't appeal at today's odds. I said I would lay him after he went close to fav last year (that was on the assumption I had backed him at 33/1, which I hadn't)

    Given where we are I can only fancy the 2 recent winners, Highland Avenue ew at 25/1 and Mutasaabeq ew at 10/1
     
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