The season 2020 - 2021.

Taken Rick's list and highlighted who I think will leave on loan, and who will leave permanently.
GK: Krul, Nyland/McGovern, (Barden)
RB: Aarons, Byram, (Mumba)
LB: Giannoulis, Quintilla, (McCallum)
RCB: Hanley, Zimmerman (Omobamidele)
LCB: Gibson, Famewo
DM: Skipp/other, Sørensen, Tettey?, (Sitti)
CM: McLean, Rupp, Vrančić?
WR: Buendia, (Martin)
WL: Cantwell, Hernandez, Placheta
AM: Dowell, Stieperman
S: Pukki, Hugill, (Idah)

In terms of priorities:

• I think Skipp stays, but if not he absolutely needs replacing as top priority. Wouldn't mind seeing another central midfielder who can offer something defensively too.
• New CB, to be genuine competition for Hanley and Gibson. Zimmerman 4th choice for the season, Famewo/Omobamidele probably need a loan but could see one staying if they impress in pre-season.
• Attacking midfielder, ideally somebody with a bit of positional flexibility. Realistically only Cantwell, Buendia and Dowell are likely to have any impact in the Prem, an injury to any of them would be a blow to survival chances. If we could make two signings here, I wouldn't say no!
• LB. I don't think Quintilla will stay, it doesn't sound like we're obligated to buy and the fee agreed is too much for a backup LB.
• GK. Wouldn't hurt to get someone homegrown, but a Fahrmann-like agreement wouldn't surprise me.

That's around 6 in, mostly upgrading on existing squad members. Obviously things change with the departure of anyone important.

 

I think the 6 in with the departures indicated could leave us over the 25 player limit unless some are under 21. Skipp would count as a U21 and homegrown if he stays, but I don't think he will. The other U21s could also help out with homegrown requirements and cover for injuries, while getting playing time in the cups and U21 games. It's all a bit complicated but I'm sure SW will work it out.

 

Marcus Evans has left the building

 

Yeah I don't doubt we'll manage things correctly. Makes talk of Vrancic and Tettey contract negotiations interesting, they'll squeeze us on numbers even more.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of somewhat unexpected departures, if there's interest. Stiepermann, Hernandez & Zimmerman will be peripheral at best next season, and even if we go down would be of questionable value to the squad in 18 months time. If the right players can be brought in, wouldn't be surprised to see one of them depart.

 

Crikey

 

Given Byram’s injury record, I’d be sceptical on him being fully available throughout next season. With that in mind and the likelihood of Aarons leaving if we get the right (big) offer I’d say another RB would be needed.

 

One possibility at DM should Skipp not come back is James Garner on loan from ManUtd, who has been linked with us by a number of sources. He's 20, so he'd qualify as U21. He's currently at Forest and is their highest rated player on WhoScored at 7.03.

 

It seems that an American consortium have taken over at ITFC. Evans has written off £100m of debt. All this on Look East tonight. Can’t begin to understand why rich Yanks would prefer ITFC than NCFC. Why are we last on the list for takeovers from rich backers?

 

We would cost a lot more than £40m

 

That’s news to me Canary Rob ITFC for £40m. Yes, I would expect that given our standing in Championship and PL potential we would be worth more than £100m?

 

Ipswich's new owner ORG "manage funds on behalf of a large US pension fund". I'd question anyone's sanity investing in football clubs for anything other than billionaire vanity projects. They're money pits. I suppose it's something to do with "buy low, sell high" in Ipswich's case. Can't remember when they've ever been lower.

 

Yes, I thought that if they are investing my pension I would move it to a fund that didn't buy a football club!

 

Given its central location, the development value of the Portman Road site must be considerable? The appropriate tag line for the take-over should perhaps be "Watch this space"!

 

I can see them groundsharing with the Tescoes. FACT,

 

Just been listening to The Athletic's Football Business podcast, and their expert used the rough guide that the value of a club doubles upon promotion. The figure for Ipswich seems to be around £20m? Get them out of a division they're "too big" for with some sensible management and investment, and you can sell for £40m. Make the Prem and that's £80m.

I guess the concern isn't so much these owners, who seem to have sensible plans, it's who they sell to in the medium term. They aren't fans, the responsibility isn't to the future of ITFC, so will the next owners be good for the club too?

 

If it were that easy though, everyone would be doing it. I think many clubs their size need to take a leaf out of Norwich's self sustainable book/ regulations for turnover Vs wage expenditure

 

On the issue of clubs' changing fortunes David Hannant points out that our 7-0 win over Huddersfield "happened to fall on the anniversary of sporting director Stuart Webber's arrival at Carrow Road, ironically enough, from Huddersfield. City's last game before Webber's arrival was actually a 3-0 defeat to the very same Yorkshire side."

Football success is a long term process which requires in-depth planning, organisation and patience, which is exactly what SW has brought to our club. No knee jerk reactions, expensive player gambles or manager sackings but instead his steady focus on incremental development and long term planning.

https://www.edp24.co.uk/sport/david-hannant-ncfc-column-stuart-webber-7878570

 

Mildly interesting, we finished our last promotion season with a goal difference of +36 - the same figure we have currently this season.

18/19:
GF 93 (top)
GA 57 (8th in the league)
20/21 so far:
GF 64 (2nd in the league behind Brentford, who have scored 66)
GA 28 (2nd in the league behind Watford, who have conceded 27)

When we went up in 18/19, Sheffield United (much vaunted for their defence) conceded 41 goals. We'd need to concede 2 a game for the rest of the season to be near that figure.
Leeds conceded 35 goals last season
As far as I can see, the record this millenium for fewest goals conceded in a promotion season is 29 by WBA in 01/02, followed by 31 by Boro in 15/16.

So our defence this season is on course to be right up there with the best the Championship has seen. It'll be interesting to see how that translates to the Premier League - are we objectively good defensively or has the league got easier?

 

I do not believe the league has got easier. Farke knew we would have to become more defense minded (obviously been listening to Robbie) if we were to stand a realistic chance of surviving in the Premiership. We have better defenders than we had last season . Jamal Lewis was too lightweight for the Premiership and quite often got muscled off the ball, Gibson has brought solidity to our defense and Hanley has improved now that he has had an injury free season, The difference Skipp has made to our defense is immense and Giannoulis has proved to be one of the best signings of the season . And Krull has had a fantastic season which has been rightly rewarded with a recall the the Dutch national side.

 

I certainly think we're stronger than we were two seasons ago, but it's likely that we're going to end the season with a top 5 defensive record from the 63 sides promoted this millenium. I was questioning whether that's been aided by a weaker league.