Daily Racing Thread Thursday 8th. April 2021

Eileendover

 

1.45 SSS Super Alloys Manifesto Novices' Chase (Grade 1)

This has been a Grade 1 since 2012 and in 11 runnings just 1 favourite has obliged - Captain Conan at odds of 6/5 in 2013. However, all 11 winners were in the first 3 in the betting so it is not a race that has thrown up big-priced winners. Here are all the stats (courtesy of thestatsdontlie.com) are:

Age – 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6-8
Price – 1 of the last 11 favourites have won, 11/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 0 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before Aintree, 10/11 winners ran within the last 30 days
5/11 ran in the Arkle Novice Chase (Cheltenham) on their last run, 0 of the 5 won, 0 placed
5/11 ran in the Marsh Novices Chase (Cheltenham) on their last run, 0 of the 5 won, 2 placed
Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree , 1/11 winners had a previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous run over 20/21 furlongs, 5/11 had at least 1 previous win over 20/21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 10/11 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 10/11 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 10/11 winners had at least 4 chase runs, 10/11 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 8/11 winners were rated 151 or higher
Graded Wins – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 9/11 winners had at least 4 runs that season, 10/11 winners had at least 2 wins that season

So forget anything which ran at Cheltenham, forget anything that won last time out and you are left with the two "P"s - Phoenix Way (discarded on ratings) and Protektorat (not in the first 3 in the betting). So nobody wins . Seriously though, I think the one stat that will be broken here is the "won last time" one as I really like Hitman for this and he meets most of the other stats (only 5 and might end up favourite though). He ran a cracking race in the Henry VIII at Sandown and, despite falling at the first railway fence in the Scilly Isles (over-jumped) his jumping has looked really solid to date. I think this will be run at a fast pace and Hitman's ability to travel and jump can see him take the opener. Protektorat would be the danger on stats, particularly if he is backed to within the top 3.

 

2.20 Doom Bar Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)

Unlike the Manifesto, Cheltenham runners have a very good record in this with Pentland Hills, Defi Du Seuil and Zarkandar having doubled up in recent years whilst Apple's Jade, Guitar Pete, Grumeti and Walkon all placed in the Triumph and won this. The only candidate in the 6-runner field who ran in the Triumph is second-fav Adagio (15/8). Paul Nicholls unbeaten French import Monmiral heads the betting at a shade of odds on. 4 of the last 11 favourites have won.

Here the trends for recent renewals:

Price – 4 of the last 11 favourites have won, 7/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 4 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices Hurdle , 10/11 at least placed on their last run, 9/11 winners ran within the last 29 days
7/11 winners ran in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) on their last run, 3 of the 7 won, 4 placed
Previous Course Form – 1/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 1/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 9/11 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 10/11 had at least 1 previous win over 15-17 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 9/11 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles, 9/11 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles,
Rating – 8/11 winners were rated 143 or higher
Graded Wins – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 9/11 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9/11 winners had at least 2 wins that season

It is disappointing to see no Irish runner in this, given their strength in depth in the juvenile division. Consequently MPR can pick up some nice prize money for running two but this ought to revolve around the 2 market leaders. It is a classic Aintree clash - the battle-hardened Adagio who battled all the way up the hill in the Triumph and found only Quliixios too good, against the unexposed "could be anything" Monmiral who comes here a fresh horse. Monmiral could absolutely bolt up but I will stick with Adagio to outbattle him up the long Aintree straight.

 

2.50 Betway Bowl Chase (Grade 1)

With the exception of Madison Du Berlais (12/1), Follow The Plan (50/1) and Tea For Two (10/1) this has gone to the fav or 2nd fav in recent years. Here the stats:

Age – 9 of the last 11 winners were aged between 8 and 10
Price – 4 of the last 11 winners were favourites, 8/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 1/11 winners won on their last run before the Bowl Chase, 10/11 winners had their last run within the last 40 days
7/11 winners ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) on their last run, 0 of the 7 won, 1 placed
Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 8/11 winners had at least 3 runs over 24 furlongs or further, 9/11 winners had at least 1 win over 24 furlongs or further
Previous Chase Form – 9/11 winners had at least 9 previous chase runs, 9/11 winners had at least 4 previous chase wins
Rating – 9/11 winners had a rating of 158 or higher
Graded Wins – 11/11 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race, 9/11 had at least 2 wins in a grade 1-3 race, 9/11 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 race
Season Form – 11/11 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9/11 winners had at least 1 win that season

Interestingly, 7 of the last 11 winners had their previous run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and that would bring in Aso and Native River whilst Tiger Roll and Mister Fisher also ran at the festival. However the age stat does not favour the 11-year olds and I am just wondering whether the stars might finally align for Waiting Patiently. He ran an absolute belter in the King George over this trip and a reproduction of that could see him go very close. My ultimate cliff horse .

 

3.25 Betway Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1)

A very open-looking renewal so lets look at the trends to see if they throw anything up to help us:

Age – 9 of the last 11 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 3 of the last 11 favourites/joint favourites have won, 10/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 3 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Aintree Hurdle , 10/11 winners ran within the last 36 days
7/11 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle (Cheltenham) on their last run, 2 of the 7 won, 3 placed
3/11 winners ran in the Stayers Hurdle (Cheltenham) on their last run, 0 of the 3 won, 0 placed
Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous runs over 20 furlongs, 4/11 had at least 1 previous win over 20 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 8/11 winners had at least 10 runs over hurdles, 11/11 winners had at least 3 wins over hurdles, 10/11 winners had at least 4 wins over hurdles
Rating – 10/11 winners were rated 159 or higher
Grade 1 Wins – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1 race, 10/11 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 10/11 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9/11 winners had at least 1 win that season

Well the only one who fits the rating trend of 158 or higher is Silver Streak. He ran in the 2019 edition of this (won by Supasundae) but that was very testing ground. This year's going should be much more to his liking and if Tom O'Brien can dictate a sensible pace from the front he ought to have every chance. Conversely Song For Someone might find the ground a little too lively over what is undoubtedly his optimum trip. My enthusiasm for him is tempered by his lacklustre display behind Goshen in the Kingwell where he never went a yard. Brewinupastorm and Mcfabulous were 1 and 2 in the National Spirit Hurdle but I would find it a tad disappointing if either were to prevail here. It is dangerous to ignore Nicky Henderson runners in Grade 1 hurdle races, especially when one of them is a dual Champion Hurdler, but it is difficult to see either being involved at the business end here. I see much more of a threat from the 2 Irish runners, Abacadabras and Jason The Militant, neither of whom have ever tried this trip but therefore look unexposed in the context of this race. Slight preference is for Abacadabras at this stage.

 

4.05 Rose Paterson Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase (National Course)

Trends

Age – 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 10 or older
Price – 4 of the last 11 favourites/joint favourites have won, 6/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 4 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Rose Paterson Open Hunters Chase, 10/11 winners ran within the last 40 days
5/11 winners ran in the Hunters Chase (Cheltenham) on their last run, 2 of the 5 won, 1 placed
Previous Course Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree, 4/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 8/11 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 8/11 had at least 1 previous wins over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Chase Form – 11/11 winners had at least 14 previous chase runs, 10/11 winners had at least 3 previous chase wins
Rating – 8/11 winners were rated 126 or higher
Graded Wins – 1/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 9/11 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/11 winners had at least 1 win that season

Interestingly the age stat would rule out 4 of the most fancied runners in Billaway, Cat Tiger, Some Man and Latenightpass. Seven of those declared have experience over the National fences - Bishops Road, Federici, Greensalt, Killaro Boy, More Buck's, Sametegal and Ucello Conti - I think Sametegal and Killaro Boy might be the two from that list.

 

Wow. Statz-blitz. Loving it Nass

 

I always thought him a tad ungenuine though Nass ..........,