Thread for antepost bets for 2022 Cheltenham festival. It’s never too early to start the “portfolio”.
Festival Novices Chase - Bravemansgame @14/1 The RSA or whatever its called these days is a race that Paul Nicholls has had good winners of, and with Bravemansgame I believe he has one of the leading lights for next season. He ran well at the festival but found Bob Olinger too fast and then tired to finish 3rd. Like many Paul Nicholls horses his future is over fences and the improvement the yard find with their chasers is impressive. I think he can be another of these, and with the UK scene looking weak again, I expect he will win novice chases next season and shorten for the festival int he process. Mares Novice Hurdle - Elle Est Belle @ 14/1 (already into 12/1 this evening) A horse who finished 3rd in the Champion Bumper shouldn't be so big for the mares novice hurdle. She ran with enormous credit and importantly she was staying on strongly at the finish which suggest that the mares novice hurdle would be the ideal race for her. She is likely to run at Aintree in the mares bumper, and if she wins or gets close to Eileendover then I am hopeful that she will shorten. If she stays in mares races next season, she should get plenty of success and that would see her as a leading light for the festival. I have done EW double and two win bets
Well, have you taken Shiskin at 6/4 Nass? Fill us in. You really must be an ante post player of sorts now I feel, especially with the dilution of the racing, making the unusual case for having so many short priced horses lining up in "competitive" heats. I avoided many of the championship races this year purely as I had missed prices and I wasn't willing to get involved on the wrong end of the bookmakers pricing. Here is a question, I'd like to know the forums thoughts on it - when is the best time to get on a horse for next years event? Do you wait until said horse is 4/7 on seasonal debut in a 5 runner field, knowing it will likely win cosily and still be cut by the bookmakers, or do you go ahead now and chance it at the earliest time possible? Or wait until the Christmas period is over and you know more or less the race being targeted, but perhaps missing a few points off the price again? Interested to hear prospective ante post punters ideas on this, I am not a huge ante post player, I flirted with it before to negative results, so I have been cautious ever since. But as I stated above, barring the handicaps, it seems you almost must be getting on something ante post for the championship racing nowadays.
In terms of Shishkin and this probably also helps answer the latter. I wouldn’t be backing him at 6/4 because I think there are a few potential angles that are interesting, the main ones being Enurgumene and even Allaho. If he was 6/4 to beat this years QMCC field Then you probably would say that is fair. However if either or both of the aforementioned turned up you’d probably be wanting more than 6/4 on the day. In terms of antepost punting I think each race is different and every horse is too. Take the Gold Cup, as of now you’d probably want to be with one of Monkfish, Envoi Allen or Minella Indo. Now the front two could meet as novices this year, if the former won you’d expect it to harden further in the market, if the latter won it’d be similar. However if Monkfish demolishes Envoi, you could argue that might change the way they race Envoi next season with the Ryanair as a target. So before they met would be a good time to back whichever one you fancied for the Gold Cup, and if it’s Monkfish then you might consider backing Envoi for the Ryanair. The number of options available to horses make betting in the novice races difficult, but you are getting double/treble the odds by guessing which race many of them go for. As soon as you hear from a yard which race they are likely to go for is the time to strike.
I had a bet on Appreciate it for the RSA on the 1st January at 25/1. I picked this race as I thought (hope) Mullins will follow the Monkfish route.
Can I just ask am I missing something re Happygolucky?!? For me he was one of the stars of the Aintree meet as the old boy jumped beautifully and then quickened up in decisive fashion to win the 3 mile handicap chase. Now raised to 157 he must seriously, in my view, enter calculations for next terms CGC. Also has a solid Cheltenham fencing formline, namely -12. However, he appears totally unconsidered by both punters and bookie chappies alike with just a few quotes for the big ‘un and odds as big as 66/1 available. I’ve no idea how he will be campaigned, next season, but for me it would be start with 2 out of 3 races re that Listed affair at Carlisle, the race that was the Hennessy and the intermediate chase at Sandown. Then if, these runs show, he has taken his form to another level train him for the CGC (with perhaps one more run in between). Happygolucky undoubtedly, and I do mean undoubtedly, needs to improve, to be considered a contender, but I’d say him more than capable of this. Another summer on his back, highly progressive, can only get better and all that… There is one huge draw back regarding Happygolucky for me (we won’t dwell on that but my regular readers will know what, or indeed whom, I refer) and I guess the other would be connections concentrating solely on the 2022 GN (generally 33’s available) to the detriment of everything else. This would involve preserving that mark of 157 by keeping him over hurdles, or off the track, between now and the release of the GN weights. I’m not going to get involved in any ante-post wagers yet until more is known but certainly if in the autumn connections give the hint they will campaign him at the highest level, over fences, then he could be of huge interest from a punting perspective.
At this stage it seems crazy to start placing bets for next year's Festival, and that's probably true, but this year there may be no choice. I have never, or rather hardly ever, placed bets at this time of year for the following year. Only with one of my favourite horses, Penhill, did I do so (and quite luckily) immediately after his 2017 victory in the Albert Bartlett, betting him for the Stayers Hurdle which he won in 2018. This year I made a symbolic bet before the start of the Festival for the 2022 with Royal Pagaille, a bet that was lost in both senses, in the monetary sense of course and in the tangible sense because it was on paper and I don't know where I have it. Apart from these two bets, nothing. It is in August that I start to take a closer look at the market. But I was saying that this year is different because, I don't know if it's because of the amount of favourites that won (without counting EA, of course), or because of the amount of profit that this meant in accumulators and early bets, a quick look today shows that at the moment the early bets are really rubbish. And I fear that after Punchestown it could get worse if the winners at Cheltenham confirm their superiority. Therefore, and despite the fact that everything that follows is surely doomed to failure, let's give it a go. Ballymore A lottery because we already know that most of those who can run here can also run in the Supreme and even the Albert Bartlett. Journey With Me won the same race at Gowran on March 12 that Bob Olinger won last year. He has done it practically walked and made an excellent impression. Same trainer and same colours so what can go wrong? Journey With Me 16/1 e/w. Mares' Hurdle You have to take a leap of faith here because betting on a horse (in this case a mare) coming back from injury is very risky because the vast majority of the time they don't come back like they did before. If (and it's a very big IF) Shewearsitwell can reach her pre-injury level I think she has a good chance to shine. Three races won with overwhelming superiority, the last by eight lengths in October last year, a Grade 3 at Tipperary. WM has always said she is a fantastic mare. Let's hope she can prove it at the Festival. Shewearsitwell 16/1 e/w Lads and Coral, others 14/1. Novices' Chase (RSA) Galopin Des Champs is clearly not the obvious choice here as it seems his place would be the Marsh where he is currently fourth favourite. He won the Martin Pipe at the Festival with authority and did so up in trip, I think he will go up again and then this would be his target if the horse proves in the prep races that he is worthy of it. Galopin Des Champs 25/1 e/w Champion Bumper Classic Getaway equalled last December's record sale of a PTP horse held by Jonbon for a month, £570,000 was paid for him (crazy in my eyes, but...).CG easily won his PTP and was bought by CPS who have won the last three years this race with Sir Gerhard, Ferny Hollow and Envoy Allen. Lots of horses and very good ones will turn up, but if they don't send him to run over hurdles maybe he'll do well. He is the current favourite (which at this stage means absolutely nothing) and is right at my limit for an early bet, 12/1. Classic Getaway 12/1 e/w bet365, Lads and Coral.
I fancy Greaneteen ew for the Champion Chase. I'm basing this on his remarkable win in a truly run race in a fast time.The way he took it up from Altior and won rather easily was impressive. I know he needs to turn the tables on the 3 that beat him this year but he seems to be improving. If the ground is fast I will be more confident
Not sure you can tell much by the standard times at Sandown, given that from 2017 when they redid the race distances we have only had three races that have been run over the distance over fences and on good ground. Interestingly one of the others was Altior win in 2019. Altior 2019 - 3m 50.10s Greaneteen 2021 - 3m 51.30s In 2019 it is interesting how closely the others finished, with God's Own (5 1/2) and Vosnee Romanee (7 1/2) behind. Neither of which would have been expected to run very fast times. Interestingly the other one is - Grey Diamond this season who did a time of 4m 1.40s - this horse was rated 128 was out of the handicap and won a 4 runner race. It shows how difficult it is to judge the times of the races and the actual going of the races. My view is that Altior isn't the horse he was, he was rusty and ran too freely, and despite that he ran a horse who was given a perfectly judged ride to just 3 3/4 lengths. This puts the form very close to that of Nube Negra who beat Altior by slightly less earlier in the season. Then you look at the QMCC this year and the two are very closely tied in terms of form. It makes perfect sense in that regard. It means that Put The Kettle On and Sceau Royal both ran below form, which is what the eye told me. So what does this mean for the QMCC? Personally I would draw a line through the run by Put The Kettle On, and I would still have her as a better horse than the winner when running at Cheltenham. I have Nube Negra and Greaneteen as likely horses for races like the Desert Orchid and Clarence House, but they will have a potential superstar against them next season in Shishkin. Shishkin to me is the best 2 mile chaser around, and by quite a distance, with only Energumene holding a question against him. If I had to back one for the festival against Shishkin, it would probably be Put The Kettle On, purely on her tenacity and course form.
I agree 100% that comparing times over years is pretty meaningless. To me, visually, they went some gallop and Greaneteen came home the strongest. As regards times I was looking at the times of races on the same card and, although different distances, the race times were all well above standard times, whereas Greaneteen's was approaching 4 secs fast. Frodon is a galloper and his time was 12 secs slow. Times in chases are not reliable, we all know that, but the one thing this race did prove is that Greaneteen can keep up with a very fast pace and finish strongly. Whether he can be so effective on a softer surface is a big question I'm a big fan of Shiskin as you know but I was a little disappointed in the way he won his latest race against inferior horses. Admittedly, his Cheltenham form is impressive which is a big plus. I do like him but he doesn't look (to me) such an impressive specimen as Sprinter Sacre and therefore his odds for the CC look a bit cramped for me
The problem is that the standard time for the distance is nonsense. It is based on too few races (I think its only 32 races since the rejig of distances) and isn't trustworthy. In fact its a complete misnomer. Take Frodon's race. Only 5 races have been run over that exact trip at Sandown, 4 on good and 1 on good to soft. Of those races Proform suggest one was actually on firm ground, two on good-firm, one on good and one on good to soft. So if you take the median winners time of the 5 races as the standard you would get a standard that is actually based on good-firm ground! The ground this weekend was probably good, so no wonder his time is outside of the standard. The standard for the other race distances is based on their median time, so if they've run often on ground that was softer than officially stated it will impact on the standard. More important is believing the form around it, I have discussed with Oddy on the forum at length about how impressive Shishkin was against the clock in the Kempton run on the same card as Nube Negra and Altior. He would have routed that pair on the bare times, and given how the form based around Altior is similar for Greaneteen I think I am confident in stating that he would be closer to Nube Negra than he would to Shishkin. As for being disappointed with Shishkin, I don't get that at the minute. We haven't seen the second in open company, and it could be that Funibole Sivola is just an improving novice who is up to similar levels as those mentioned above (Altior of old and Shishkin apart). We simply do not know. Similarly, I think Shishkin was only doing what he needed to, and could have done much more if required. We shall see that in due course.
Fair enough. So, if I understand correctly, all the standard times at Sandown on Saturday were based on a different set of dates and ground conditions to the other races on the card. That would make a complete nonsense of them. One would have thought that the standard times could have been calculated with a bit more finesse. Whilst on the subject of standard times, I always assume that beating a standard time at (say) Ascot is better than beating a standard time at (say) Windsor; simply because better horses run at Ascot. Is there any way of calculating the relative values, obviously with no precision but to give a fair indication of the relative achievements. For example, if we could calculate that one performance was 20l superior to another, we can afford a decent margin of error. I always look for a large margin of error before taking too much notice of times and then combine that with other factors (eg hard race v not extended, relative weights, jockeys etc etc)
Yes, the standard times are generally a median time for the race distance on a set ground, they are a bit of an industry secret and different publications and experts have different times (if you can find a copy of Mordin on Time it goes into this in detail). The issue with UK racing, and racing on turf in particular is that the going description is so broad and not necessarily accurate. A good to firm reading today might not be as quick as a good to firm reading tomorrow. I think therefore the standard times are more relevant for races that are regularly run over a course and distance, so all weather racing for example is probably more interesting to look at standard times. Although, standard going is probably not standard all the time!! The sectional and time experts (which I am definitely not one) do lots of work in defining their own standard times and comparisons to them, but given how a large proportion of races aren't run evenly you would find it difficult to say one time is superior to another purely because the horse is better. i.e the race might have been more evenly raced, it could have been better ground, sharper course etc etc. As such the experts judge their time ratings (defined as a number against the standard time) against a "par" value for the course. A high rating against the par is judged very positively. Personally, I tend to use times very cautiously, unless they are between races that happened on the same card or have been run in exactly the same manner. I prefer to look at the likelihood of how a race is to be run rather than how they've been run in the past.
Cheltenham Festival ready to add fifth day in 2023 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/racing/2021/06/20/cheltenham-ready-extend-festival-fifth-day-2023/
I think Marcus Armytage basically calls it our for what it is, money...!! Trying to get back the £90m from the covid crisis and the £45m for the building of the Princess Royal stand. Same as it always is...
Joseph O'Brien has trained Benaud throughout his career but I see that his ownership changed on 21 July from that of Coolmore (and associates) to JP McManus. A clear indication that the 3YO Australia gelding will, most probably, be going juvenile hurdling this NH season. Those bookie chappies now make Benaud the 25/1 fav for the 2022 Triumph Hurdle. Is rated as high as 103 on the level though and does has entries in Listed / Group races later this week.
Perhaps Benaud isn't ready for the jumps just yet! Young Joseph has got him in 4, I say 4, contests on the level this month (a pair of Group 3's, a Group 1 and a premier handicap) plus next month's Long Distance Cup at Ascot. Remains 25/1 for the Triumph though.
