I see that in the last 31 years there have been 14 market leaders, in this race, starting at under 3/1. Just 2, I say 2, have won. However, I'm now going to do something of an 'about turn' re this stat / trend and answer the question 'Do I think Appreciate It will win???' with an resounding 'Yes, I do'.
It's been reported that ITV will be playing the traditional 'roar of the crowd' to the first race so much like football we will have artifical/ background noise to create the atmosphere. ITV have yet to decide if they will use it on the subsequent 3 days. It will be interesting to see how that comes across on the ITV coverage- hopefully very well. Needless to say you ll be able to sit at home with your feet up with a beer in hand (or G&T) and after the '1-2-3 countdown you ll be able to create your own atmosphere at home and roar at your tv pretending you are at Cheltenham racecourse. .
I didn't know that SBC... 2020 - Abacadabras @ 11/4 (2nd) & Asterion Forlonge @ 9/4 4th 2019 - Fakir D'Oudairies @ 9/2 (4th) & Al Dancer @ 9/2 (10th) 2018 - Getabird @ 7/4 (11th) 2017 - Melon @ 3/1 (2nd) 2016 - Min @ 15/8, (2nd) 2015 - Douvan Won @ 2/1 2014 - Vatour won @ 7/2 & Irving @ 7/2 (9th) 2013 - My Tent Or Yours @ 15/2 (2nd) 2012 - Galileo's Choice @ 6/1 (7th) Not the best of races to be favourite in general when you take a look at these past fav's, though a lot of them do seem to feature in the final top 4 placings...
18 left in at the six day stage and I think it is pretty clear now that the going will not be testing next Tuesday. I can't have Appreciate It at the prices and I think Metier might be the one - his flat form was certainly much better on a sounder surface and I think he can take a massive step forward form-wise. I also think the Twister could grab a place with one of his "G" horses - Gowel Road or Guard Your Dreams - but will wait till the day of the race for betting purposes.
Metier on spring ground? Hmmm not for me. NTD suggested handicaps might be the route for his horses. All about Ballyadam for me at the minute but will probably perm the Irish horses in tricasts and the like too.
Why do you think that? He is by Mastercraftsman not Jeremy (!) and I think he has won this winter despite soft/heavy, not because of it. His flat form is better on better going and I think he'll love spring ground.
I don’t see it that way at all, I think he’s been dominating soft ground races because he loves soft ground. He won last time because he was the only horse that went on the ground and he half the price he should be in this race. His form on the flat is irrelevant to me as his yielding runs were off marks in 70s and his best run was probably his last run off a mark in the 90s. That was on softer ground too.
Only 8 runners will face the starter at 1.20pm on Tuesday as the final declarations are revealed. Four each from Ireland and Britain and Appreciate It has hardened in to a best-priced 5/4 fav. The Irish challenge is completed by Blue Lord and the Henry de Bromhead pair of Ballyadam and Irascible. Ballyadam, in the same ownership as Envoi Allen, will be under heavy scrutiny for signs that the move from Cullentra House has in any way affected him. The 4 British runners are 2nd fav Metier, Betfair Hurdle winner Soaring Glory, the headstrong tearaway For Pleasure and the rag of the field, Grumpy Charley. This looks far from a classic Supreme and it wouldn't surprise me to see Appreciate It go odds-on. I think both Blue Lord and Metier could have more speed than the fav though and I think these 2 can fight out the finish, with Metier just favoured.
Very interesting that Soaring Glory goes with the news earlier in the week that he might miss the festival...
