The Sunny Southwell Sands Thread

I've finally had a proper look at Southwell, and that race revolves around Fantasy Keeper for me. He stumbled out of the stalls in a race over 6 furlongs last time out, but what impressed me was how well he looked on the surface. The headgear that was on for the first time is retained and on the straight 5 course he could well just gallop these into the ground.

Centurion Song is the obvious one in opposition with that course and distance win, but being drawn away from the pace might not suit him. That is my theory anyway.

I've also backed De Bruyne Horse in the 5:40 and the reverse forecast of Nick Vedder/Dirchill at 7/4 in the 7:10.

 

Global Melody out again after tailed off sunday , better drawn and if getting away could make a go of it , won at the trip on heavy at leicester in oct , they have won with this before here running two days apart 14/1

 

Good shout, Nass - nice price, too. Through clenched teeth, I'd say it was probably the jockey wot won it.

 

De Brune Horse ran ok too. Decent day and still the RFC to go.

Very kind Rainer, I’d have been furious if they’d have been the other way around

 

Not sure I want to do this today, but lets put this thread back at the top. Hopefully Rainer is about as I would like to hear his views on the opening sprint.

 

I expect a good run from Drakefell in the opening sprint. Hinted a bit of promise on last visits to Southwell (2nd 2 times there). There was market support last 2 runs. Blinkers back on and the Brittain yard amongst the winners recently.
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Morning, Nass, everyone. My views are simple and pretty much unqualified (although not necessarily correct). I think that KING OF STARS (1.35) should win this, on the grounds that - to my eye - his latest run appeared to represent a level of ability that hadn't been there before. A 6lb rise looks a little harsh, but I expect him to cope with it. It's not a scenario where phrases like 'good thing' are appropriate, but as Southwell Cl.4 handicaps go, this one doesn't look too insoluble. The only worry would be that he doesn't always run straight, and it may be that he's just a bit quirky; I'm hoping that Ali bangs him out of the box and takes him the shortest way home.

 

Custard The Dragon has another go at a mile today , failed by a neck last time , done on the line , they’ve given him a two week break since his last run , G Lee on top , 4/1 , hope he has a change of fortune back down in C6 !

 

Drakefell is the one I worry about against it. A bet on KOS with a saver of stakes on Drakefell is my call

 

My other two today are Daafr in the next and Custard The Dragon in the mile. The former is well in under a penalty, and I thought this race would be suitable for him, and Custard really deserves another course win and I thought Makyir is one to take on. So expect the jolly to hack up!!

 

Nass, is it still true that in 5f sprints, the middle of the track is faster as it effectively gets rolled twice due to the width of the roller?

 

Morning Ron, it hasn’t been easy to work out where is best on the straight course this year. I wouldn’t be worry about it, but given the races over the straight course are later in the card I’d be watching the first races to see if the course looks different in any areas.

 

Cheers Nass. It's just that I've gone in deep* on Ornate at Southwell, drawn 6 in a 5 runner race. I thought I was snapping up the 2/1 available last night but he's out to 5/2 2nd fav now

* virtual of course

 

Morning, Ron. Nass is right about wait-and-see but, in general, I suspect that quite a lot of nonsense gets talked about this: in particular, I think the double-rolling theory is urban (rustic ?) myth. At this time of year, I believe that temperature is more important, especially overnight: a measurable amount of snow or a hard frost means that the harrow has to dig deeper to break up the surface and Deeper Digging Means Slower Going (I thought about getting that put on a t-shirt for Nass for Christmas, but I think his dress-sense probably isn't up to it).

(Name-drop alert)
I spoke to Michael Dickinson about this a few years ago (he was pretty much the driving-force behind the invention, marketing and adoption of Tapeta) and he was very scathing about fibresand as a racing surface: given that he had a commercial interest in getting it replaced by tapeta, that's not entirely surprising. Long story short, he thought fibresand was unpredictable in its behaviour, too easily affected by weather and (possibly) had a harmful long-term effect on horses' legs (no specifics as to whether that meant muscles, tendons, joints or whatever). What he did say, and which remained with me, was that if you find a horse, or a sire, which clearly takes to fibresand, they'll keep producing the goods, more or less irrespective of weight. I think a few trainers (Scott Dixon, Anthony Brittain) have cottoned on to this.

All that said, I very much doubt that this is an exact science, and getting Amanda to pick a name she likes is probably as good a system as any.

 

Horse

 

The rolling thing did occur at one point, but it was the compaction caused by the tractor they were using that was causing a couple of "racing lines", I think that was about 7 years ago though and didn't seem to occur with any pattern. I think the course has changed its staff since and it (the surface) seems to be more professionally managed these days.

I remember at one point their tractor had broken down, so the track wasn't harrowed and it was horrendous for horses in behind, big clumps were being kicked up and horses hated it. The harrowing is supposed to make it finer for kickback, but most of the arguments I have heard is that because its such an old surface that clumps happen much more quickly in the cold temperatures than in fresh Tapeta, so that is why its much worse than Tapeta.

Again, I think this might be a myth that has been put out to upsell the new surfaces, we have seen it with polytrack and now fibresand, but to be honest I think that differing surfaces are important for allowing trainers and horses opportunities to specialise. It seems someone in the local council is a fan of the fibresand and is kicking up a fuss about the proposed changes. I doubt it will come to anything but hopefully they keep it going for as long as they can!

Deeper Digging Means Slower Going sounds like an album name for a shoe gazing indie band. Ron on drums, Rainer on bass, Oddy on lead guitar and Stick on lead vocals. Sounds like a cross between Simply Red and Status Quo.


Should I bother looking at the racing?

 

Yes, you should, because the 4.25 is really quite intriguing. Leaving aside the open question of the draw, the one that appeals most is MARWARI. Joanna Mason wouldn't be my favourite AW jockey, but she gave Roller a goodish ride at Kempton yesterday, This thing has traded in single figures only twice in its life, and ran well both times - the latest behind Qaaraat here recently off 58, which - to my slight surprise - hasn't gone up. I don't pretend to know the workings of Mick Easterby's mind, but it looks to me as if he's happy with the way the horse coped with fibresand first time up, and he's hoping to strike while it's still (hopefully) leniently treated.​

 

My issue with that is around Qaaraat, who is a bit of a soft horse as we saw last time out, and the fact that Marwari couldn't get closer to him in that race over course and distance. Qaaraat as we saw the other day is in great form, and if he can win on the bridle then he will, but if he gets asked for his effort he might down tools.

As such, I wonder if this race will play into the hands of something that finishes well, and the one that caught my eye is Scale Force, who has some good back form with Slowmo and Tom Tulliver. I like the fact that he is lurking on a low mark and I thought double figure prices were very interesting.

 

"Virtually" well done!!

 

Well that is annoying, I think Scale Force would have won that with a ride that didn't put him right on the rail. Qaaraat actually battled today, and perhaps he is just a pure 5 furlong horse after all. Given the weakness in the market it was a cracking effort from Scale Force, one to keep on the right side of moving forward.