I'm lost here. I'm a bit reticent to bring up another Arc thread, but I can't help myself. I'm going to bed soon, but before doing so, I'm hoping I can get some information ratings. What does length equate to in time and weight? I noticed that little has been done to explain how a 118 filly can easily account for a whole bunch of horses who were rated well above her. She not only accounted for them, she made them look second rate. Some of Danedream's wins in Germany were amazing to see. She looked every bit the machine she showed us in the Arc. Of course most of us were not prepared to say that she looked a good thing pre-race. At best we gave her an outside chance. So there's a problem here somewhere. Was the German standard of racing concidered so poor that it affected her rating? Or did the filly step up and produce a run the likes of which she's never before done? Or were the ratings of those she opposed built on a false assumption of the standards of their previous races? Or is it a mixture of all of the above? I can understand that the "heavyweights" might have performed below expectation, but how far below? I suppose the best yard stick we can use would be So You Think, because he held a decent rating going in, and was the best placed of them at the line. If So You Think went in at about the 130 mark, how many lengths was he expected to have over Danedream who went in on or about 118? If we then factor in the margin between them on the line, it must be a huge swing in the fillies favour. The connections of the filly must have known that she had a shot. They were talking of running her, quite a while before the race. They must have had an inkling of just how good she was. But despite their confidence in her, they must have been surprised by the way she won. But has she come on so far in so little a time, or was she just the victim of a myopic understanding of European racing in general? The bottom line for me though, is that she probably hasn't grown another leg. In hind sight, if we watch those German wins again, we can see that she was something pretty special. But we allowed ourselves to downplay those results with what I believe is blinkered vision. But as it's now after midnight, I'll leave it to the experts, in the hope that when I log on tomorrow, you will have solved the problem for me. All the best.
German racing has often been looked down on by the rest of Europe, but it does throw up some very talented horses. German breeding has been in the headlines this year with the Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom out of a German bred dam and now Danedream, all from a country that produces less than 1,000 foals per year! The thing with Germany is that most of their races are run on soft ground or worse, therefore their horses have naturally evolved over time to have stamina in abundance. Add to that the strict German breeding rules (all stallions must have raced for at least 2 seasons and must have raced medication free) and it adds up to a tough and reliable type of horse.
Cyclonic, I've come to the conclusion that ratings and times are guides only and that's as far as it goes. You must use your own judgement from what your eyes see and tell you. My eyes tell me that SYT, Workforce, Sarafina, Snow Fairy et al are very good horses- but not very special horses. To be special , a horse needs other qualities apart from class and speed ie. consistency, durabilty, reliabilty, and the capacity to act on all types of going. In recent times, it seems I've heard and read more comments about 'preference and requirement for certain ground conditions' for certain Group horses than I had in years previously. Last Sunday's Arc was a prime example of this. Quite frankly, if last Sunday's going didn't suit, then what on earth do trainers want? Excuses it seems! As regards Danedream, my eyes tell me she was a very good winner but, since I didn't rate the opposition as special, I'd like to see her race again. I certainly wouldn't knock her and she definitely won on merit.
Agreed. The clock does not lie so it has go down as a very good performance regardless of how the others ran. I am absolutely convinced though that many of the horses ran below par simply because of the freak weather conditions recently. Some looked very poorly in their coat in the paddock and didn't look anything like the classic horses I have seen turn up for the Derby and King George at Ascot in previous years. And some even had expression saying "I don't want to be here". Some trainers obviously had more idea than others on how to get there horses right on the day. I'm sure some connections must have known before the race that their horse would not win. It was a great day out but not a great day for some of the horses to be racing.
"The thing with Germany is that most of their races are run on soft ground or worse,".............. PN: Hmmmm, are you sure about that? I have lived here a long time, and used to go racing a fair bit down here in the south, that's when I was home on leave. We used to get some pretty long hot summers and the ground was often damn fast. OK, Spring and Autumn you would probably be right most of the time. As for the far north. OddDog would know better than I, but I reckon the successes of the German breed are down to toughness? The Acatenango line, for example, produces progeny of great toughness and durability? (Note: Damsire was Aggressor, I think).
I think one of the problems with parochialism, is short sightedness. A good horse can come from anywhere. If it comes from a so called "backwater," it has to race against a lesser class of horse, but that doesn't mean that it has less ability. If Sea The Stars had cut his teeth in Germany, he probably would have gone into an English Classic as a despised outsider.
Cyc: Good point, but many aspects of thoroughbred horseracing are, and always have been, somewhat snobbish. It was your bete noire Timeform, and founder Phil Bull, who helped put a stop to that from the late '40s onward'. (Sorry, couldn't resist that!).
No worries Swanny. I've been trying to put a satirical piece together about the Timeform institution for a while now. It's three parts done, but I just can't seem to find an ending.
Oh God, oh God, I can't wait! I promise I will be on my best behaviour and only give sensible comments. If I am unable to do this, then, of course, no comments! Seriously, have a lot of stuff in my archives on the early days of Timeform so if I can be of any assistance as to research, I would be only too happy to do so. From the '80s onwards, would have to defer. From that period onwards, sort of lost touch with the goings-on at Timeform! Again, I look forward to your upcoming essay on this worthwhile subject, satirical or otherwise!
Let's be honest - apart from those living in Germany how many people had even watched Dane Dream racing? I can only speak for myself but I think i've only ever watched 2 German races and that was because Aidan O Brien had a runner. She certainly didn't factor into my reckoning because out of sight is out of mind. And yes, as she was raced in germany I did think she could be dismissed. It happens now and again.....
I am the first to admit I did not consider Danedream to be quite up to it to win an Arc, but her European form did bear examination surely? She did not just run in Germany. Correct me if I'm wrong, but she has run 12-times as follows - 5 times in France (3 wins inc. Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and 2 u/p) 3 times in Italy (1 win in Italian Oaks, a 3rd in the Italian Derby, and a 4th). 4 times in Germany (2 wins, 2-3rds). There were enough opportunities to video-view her races, and thoroughly examine her form when analysing the Arc?
yeah agreed but I'm still not sure that, even had I studied that form in the depth, in the field assembled, she would have stood out. It's all too easy to get blinded by the form of the UK Irish and french horses. Let's be fair - not even the bookies knew what was coming. I'm not defending the dismissal of horses from Germany but just explaining it. And aside from the major French races I'll admit to not watching much racing at all outside of UK and Ireland.
The 5th place in the Abu Dhabi Prix De Malleret (Group 2), when she wasn´t ridden by Starke "ruined" her odds. If her 2011 form read 4/3/1/1/1, she goes into the Arc at around 14/1, I think.
CM: Agreed, very difficult to evaluate. PatNat2: Yes, right, ridden by Maxime Guyon, and still didn't get beaten that far? Although Danedream had form on softish going, she obviously went much better on fast ground and obviously liked to hear her feet clatter! How well we know it now!
I'm willing to admit that I'm wrong on the ground front! I've no practical experience of German racing, so am commenting on things I have heard said by others! For me though, as a rule of thumb, German horses = tough, with plenty of stamina.
There was an interesting piece in âThe Weekenderâ yesterday from Nick Mordin in which he explained that German thoroughbred breeding âwas effectively cut from the outside world for 75 yearsâ until 1993 - due to 2 World Wars, the Versailles Treaty and then an isolationist policy banning foreign runners until this date. They were therefore insulated from the trend of âbreeding for speedâ which developed elsewhere during these years. Mordin states, as Princess has just done, that German horses perform much better as âdistances lengthenâ and he expects that only to continue in the near future given there much more stamina based pedigrees. Danedream could possibly be only the first in a long line of German bred Arc winners over the next few years then. He also cites the stats that prove that backing the clear favourite, if its German bred, in UK flat races over 8 furlongs+ and in UK jump races over 20 furlongs+ produce big profits.
Interesting thoughts from Nick Mordin. Could be that German-breds go on most types of ground too, although I have not really gone into that aspect. As an example, and if my memory serves me correct, that fine racehorse Lando relished good or good-to-firm ground when he raced, and it may reflect on some of his progeny too? Lando's sire, Acatenango? Well, he was a supremely tough and talented middle-distance performer himself, and his progeny reflect these traits, and they seems to go well on almost any going.
Pity we didn't have these conversations before the Arc. Given how well she looked in the paddock, I might have even backed her.
if you look at that race you will see the winner lead and quickened and caught them napping behind,but 2nd placed horse raced in 2nd,3rd horse home raced 3rd . nothing changed throughout the race hardly,typical sprint finish .danedream raced nearer last and managed to get to 5th. this i think may explain her form and the difference between a horse like danedream and sarafina. danedream seems all stamina but little speed.sarafina on the other hand is speed. sarafina was taken out of her comfort zone in the arc .she as done the last furlong at longchamp in 11.1 in the past.in the arc she managed 12.danedream herself only did 12.1 for the last furlong ,but thrived on the fast pace throughout,where sarfina is used to no more than a even galop at best before blasting home for the final quarter mile. there are more races that are slower run compared to fast run these days,hence i think why she struggled in france,because speed was needed , a proper sprinting speed,but danedream didnt have it.sarafina would of murdered testerone if put in that race,ironically she won on the same day in avery slow run race where she mowed down cirrus de angles like he was massive inferior.
It's all if and buts GP. They carved out a solid clip which brought a lot of them undone. We can all find an ideal scenario for a horse, but how often does that happen? More often than not, the very good horses like Sarafina, So You Think and Workforce can get the job done, even if the conditions are not the best, but sometimes they are flat to the boards just trying to hang on. This year's Arc was the latter. All honours to the winner. She was a mile too good.
