Top, excellent idea,a great read,usefull replies from knowledgable members,keep it going.Going to buy myself a little black book to write the info about these horses and others. Kind of lost my excitement of horse racing of late,and was not going to bother too much about the jump season,but after reading this article,its got me thinking again and ready to do some form studying. Thanks Islander
Very nice start to the series TopClass and for my tuppence worth I think QDLR is a possible Gold Cup contender but no more at the moment. Over the years we have seen any number of Irish novice chasers who can grind out a result over an extended 3 miles on heavy ground but for me a horse needs so much more than just stamina these days to win a Gold Cup. Jumping at championship pace, taking lengths out of your opponents with flying leaps, that is what wins Gold Cups. It's difficult to be too hard on a young horse but I thought his Aintree display was poor (he was actually lucky to win) and he beat a poor field in his Grade 1 race at Punchestown. He is certainly one to keep an eye on regarding progress towards a tilt at the Gold Cup but I wouldn't want to be taking a price just yet
TopC: As always an excellent, informative and very enjoyable read. For someone who claims to be a NH novice you have certainly done your homework and it shows in the superb write-up. Ignore the '2nd season chasers' rubbish for the Gold Cup! Multiple winners would be more accurate of late so IMO Long Run if he stays fit and well will take all the beating in March. However with the sad demise of Imperial Commander and Denman/Kauto Star way past it there is room in this spectacle of a race for fresh blood. Is QDLR value at 25s? Hard call as probably that's a fairish mark taking into consideration there is not a lot out there to challenge Long Run at present. On the flip side 25s now with a season where anything could go wrong may be a tad short. For me if you like the horse i'd take a small EW wager at the 25s and then after each of the big races see where he stands in the market and then maybe snaffle some more the closer you get to March. The CGC is all about Long Run this year and probably next - If Mr Henderson can keep him fit he will take all the beating throughout the season that is why i would go EW if having an ante post wager. Finally - I very much look forward to your next selection and like many others enjoyed the read greatly
Top write up and idea, mate! Cheltenham is a long way off to be saying if he's championship class - has to go a long way to match Long Run but take him out and the staying chase scene looks very open! Do fancy him to be the pick of the second season Irish chasers looking at Noble Prince; Bostons Angel and Jessies Dream though. Done little wrong - seems to have gone well on heavy and good ground last season so you have to hope he's improved! However , on soft/heavy ground in Ireland then Pandorama would still, for me, be the one to beat. For Cheltenham then Weapons Amnesty is proven there so I'd agree he'd probably be Gigginstown first choice if he's back fully recovered - 20/1 looks far more appealing to be honest than the 25/1 for QDLR?
Some kind words- very much appreciated guys so thank you Some fascinating insights from you guys already. One point I really liked was from Oddy, who if I read your point correctly, thinks a Gold Cup horse should possess speed, and this is such an intriguing point as it is something I look for in top middle distance horses in the flat sphere. You may remember me saying that the key to Masked Marvel in the St Leger was that he possessed the speed over 1m 4f that would enable him to get into a good position when required. It's almost like having an extra gear to go alongside your stamina I guess. The best example of lacking speed is Seville- who will stay all day but just can't pick up quick enough to be a top level horse. I was thinking about the big names in the chasing division and its fair to say the best ones had good cruising speeds- Long Run and Kauto Star in particular at the top of their game. Quito De La Roque so far on reflection hasn't shown that sort of class/speed to go alongside his stamina, and I can certainly understand the angle of 'dour stayer' which has been put across. That said, hsi trainer feels there is a fair bit more to come, and now at 7 and as he goes into his 8 year old career, he might find that bit of improvement, especially with Colm saying physically there is more to come, which may help him. It will be interesting to see him pitched in at the deep end to see how he fares. I think it might take him a couple of starts in top level company before he finds his feet, but he won't lack for stamina, that is what we do know. How would you rate him against Midnight Chase? That might make an interesting sort of measure.
I remember a flat jockey of great renown (though I cannot remember exactly who, Murtagh maybe?) commenting that if you were riding a horse in the Derby with absolutely no stamina concerns then they were almost certainly too slow to win the race. I think to a certain extent the same is true of the Gold Cup. So therefore, perhaps we should be looking for a speedier type who might stay as opposed to a definite stayer who lacks the necessary gears. I should also add my name to the TopClass appreciation society! A brilliant idea with some brilliant, interesting and illuminating points. Gathering other peoples' opinions is a very helpful exercise because, even if you disagree with them, their opinion might make you reconsider the validity of your own.
TopClass you are right a horse needs speed to win a GC, and more than that fluent jumping at speed. Midnight Chase is an admirable horse and I did quietly fancy him for the Gold Cup last season but he is just short of what is required and was found out when they quickened up approaching the highest point of the course on the 2nd circuit. He is a high 150-s horse but is probably 20lbs short of what a Gold Cup winner needs. QDLR could get there but it is too early to say, and therefore any AP gamble at the moment would be more of a "bet to lay" opportunity. If he comes out and demolishes a couple of good fields he could shorten to around 10s or 12s and there you can lay back some of the 25s. I think generally we are seeing more staying chasers with a touch of speed in their pedigree and I do think Cadoudal gives some of that so from that perspective QDLR could develop into a serious contender.
Okay, that's an angle I really like. Again then, from your experience in years past, haver we ever seen a horse make the step up from 2m to 3m with any great deal of success? OR would we be more inclined to look at 2 and a half mile horses who have stepped up? Master Minded is a horse this season who might answer some of these questions for us I guess. Sizing Europe has haredly disgraced himself up in distance but hasn't really convinced as of yet. I believe his connections are making a decision after his fortunate win on Saturday regarding his trip this season.
In recent years Toppy high class 2 mile novice chasers have dominated the Gold Cups. Best Mate competed and won top 2 mile novice races before his Gold Cup hatrick, Kicking King and War of Attrition were defeated in Arkles before Gold Cup success and of Kauto Star, Tingle Creek winner and fallen QM favourite to boot, went onto his glorious staying successes,albeit without having been campaigned extensively at 2 miles (by which I mean he was only 6 yo when he went over 3 miles). Long Run achieved success as a novice over two miles also so the recent list is endless. If your referring to, and I think you might be, non-novice two milers turning out to be Gold Cup contenders then they'd be less plentiful, in fact none jump out off the top of my head at the minute. Moscow Flyer, dual Queen Mother winner, was always booted as a King George horse but ended up never competing. Azertuoip didn't get home in Kicking King's first King George success if memory serves correctly. In summary what Master Minded is setting out to do, i.e. an established top tier two miler stepping up (later in his career) is something in recent times that hasn't been done to great effect. Though my interest in horse racing only goes back ten years or so, so maybe those involved further back can think of a few examples...
I always maintain that the King George VI Chase ruined Azertyioup. He was never the same horse after that. That final half mile certainly took its long term toll on the horse in my opinion. Certainly wish Master Minded better luck in 2011. Personally, I’ve never understood why some trainers (Martin Pipe was always the most notable) have this fixation with turning confirmed 2 milers, or even 2 and a half milers, into 3 miles+ animals. It doesn’t happen in reverse and almost always ends in tears. Only step a horse up if they indicate it will be to there benefit. One who I’m looking forward to seeing upped in distance this term, for the right reasons, is my old fave, the legionary Tataniano.
Yes Beefy, I was thinking more in terms of established chasers stepping up, but the 2m novice form is definitely interesting as it shows they do possess some speed. Looking back through Denmans career, even he had form over hurdles between 2m1f and 2 and a half miles, before doing several demolition jobs sent chasing!
beeforsalmon, good points well made. Re. Master Minded, I think he'll be competitive over any distance from two to three miles- his jumping will see to that. Of course Cheltenham is a different kettle of fish. Although, as you say, two mile novices have come to the fore in recent Gold Cups, there's very much a mixed bag historically. Very often it depends on the trainer. In the past, both Tom Dreaper and Fulke Walwyn were mentally 'attuned' to staying chasers (and would send their charges novice chasing very quickly)- as opposed to two milers and hurdlers, although they had plenty of the latter as well. I think Nicky Henderson has a similar attitude, but maybe Paul Nicholls is a bit more circumspect in his decisions. One of the interesting facts from last year's Gold Cup is that, apart from Long Run, there wasn't a single six or seven year old in the race. They were all older. To me, that is very surprising and asks the question..Is that just coincidental or are trainers waiting too long to go chasing? I don't know but the omission of seven year olds is a bit worrying!
Quick question- as Tam has just mentioned younger jumpers, I wondered what the plans might be for Mon Parrain? I remember seeing him at last season and his jumping was sensational.
TopC: I remember a young lad 2 weeks before the Leger who gave Masked Marvel no chance a wise old waste of space may have convinced him otherwise Sizing Europe although running OK over further never really looked like winning over 3 miles, he is an awesome 2 miler around Prestbury Park! As far as challengers to Long Run i still maintain (despite numerous very good arguments being put forward) that this season totally depends on how fit and well Mr Henderson can keep Long Run. You really have hit on a superb idea here and i think this will continue to be very well supported mate
Toppy - [video]Mon Parrain etc[/video] PPGC to start. 'lovely horse and big future' Kauto Stone looks a peach btw
Thanks Nass, some beautiful looking types on his hands. Liked the sound of Italian Master who I get the impression is really highly rated, along with Cedre Bleu in the novice chasing dept.
PS, I think I'm ready to write Episode 2 and may be pushed as it makes its seasonal debut pretty soon. I'm just wary as I don't want to be firing out the threads too frequently as we could end up shortening the discussion or running out of major contenders before the festival arrives! I am considering publishing the next one on Friday, and all being well it should have some good discussion over the weekend to keep us busy until middle/late next week. Does that sound okay?
